Can the Oilers pull off the NHL miracle?
10 times a team in the NHL managed to come back from 0:3 to 3:3, 4 times the series could still be won, only once in the Stanley Cup Finals. Exciting numbers and conditions ahead of our last Panthers vs Oilers betting tip for this NHL season.
The Oilers could follow in the footsteps of the Maple Leafs of 1942, who also managed a monster comeback back then. This last step, however, is the hardest. The Panthers can certainly tell you a thing or two about it
So from our perspective, Monday night is 99% mental. Who can free themselves from the thought of losing it all and focus on the feeling of winning it all? Home ice advantage favors Florida, momentum favors Edmonton.
The odds are distributed accordingly. That’s why our prediction for Panthers vs. Oilers is a 50:50 duel in which not too many goals are likely to be scored. That’s what seventh games have historically been like
Florida Panthers – Statistics & current form
The Panthers are counted out, but the good thing from their perspective is that with just one win, everything will still be fine. That could actually turn into an advantage. Because all of the Oilers’ hard work to get back into the series can be undone by Florida with just one win.
Their fans will certainly have to help them, and the start of the game is particularly important. If the Panthers score the first goal or at least hold a tie after the first period, we’ll see the odds increasingly on their side
Bobrovsky must become a factor again
Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky was the almost certain Finals MVP for many experts after three games of the series, but there’s no sign of that anymore. Only with an outstanding shutout in Game 7 could he still have hopes of winning the title.
In any case, he has to get back to his form from the beginning of the series. Back then, he posted save percentages of well over 90%, and even a whopping 100% in Game 1. In the last three games, however, these were only 68.8%, 82.6% and 84.2%.
At least they have risen slightly again. However, we expect that he will now have to get back above the 90% mark for Florida to win the game. In a Game 7, in which there are traditionally fewer big chances on both sides, this is absolutely possible
Difficult to pick a winner
We don’t have to kid ourselves, game 7 will be a 50:50 duel. We would also slightly prefer the odds on Edmonton for Panthers vs. Oilers, as they are considered the slight underdogs. However, we do not see them as favored picks.
We would rather go for the total goals and here for under points. Because in the last 15 Game 7s in NHL playoff history, the 5 total goals have only been surpassed three times, most recently in May 2022, but that was only a second-round series.
Key Players:
- G: Sergei Bobrovsky
- D: Gustav Forsling
- D: Aaron Ekblad
- LW: Vladimir Tarasenko
- C: Aleksander Barkov
- RW: Sam Reinhart
Edmonton Oilers – stats & current form
The Oilers are three-quarters of the way to an unbelievable comeback. But this last step is known to be the most difficult. Only four teams that have come back from 0-3 down have managed to take that final step to a 4-3 series win.
A good omen could perhaps be that the away team has won each of the last three Game 7s of the NHL Stanley Cup Finals. The last time the St. Louis Blues did this was in Boston against the Bruins in 2019
Statistics now speak for Edmonton
After almost all the statistics were in favour of the Panthers at the start of the series, things have now turned around. The Oilers also scored 22:16 goals in the finals – in the last three games, it’s even 18:5.
However, the one statistic that still clearly favors Florida is also one of the least important. In face-offs, the men from Florida are ahead with just under 5% more bullies won. However, if the game remains close until the final minutes, this strength of the Panthers could become important again
Low scoring game expected
We’ve already discussed that betting on a Game 7 winner is a bit of roulette. On the other hand, what can also traditionally be seen statistically is that there are fewer goals than usual. There have been three seventh games so far this postseason and the average goal count has been 3.7.
If we go back a little further, this trend is confirmed. In the last 15 Game 7s, over five goals have only been scored three times, while in the last 22 this has happened five times. This is quite normal, as the teams tend to approach this task with caution to avoid running into an open knife.
In this respect, a bet on under 5.5 total goals is clearly recommended for Florida vs Edmonton. We would even consider betting on under 5 total goals to be a very good play. In game 6, it also came down to that for a long time, before two empty-netters helped to increase the number of goals.
Key Players:
- G: Stuart Skinner
- D: Mattias Ekholm
- D: Evan Bouchard
- LW: Warren Foegele
- C: Connor McDavid
- RW: Zach Hyman
Florida Panthers – Edmonton Oilers head-to-head / H2H record
0:3 became 3:3 and suddenly everything is open again and the Stanley Cup Finals have become a coin toss. The odds are absolutely 50-50 and even the Oilers’ momentum can only be seen as a limited advantage in such an “all-or-nothing” game.
Because on Monday, all the heads will do what they want anyway. The entire field hockey world will tune in and the team that keeps its cool will win the Cup. Over the season as a whole, we’d expect the Panthers to win it, but the last three games the Oilers have shown us that they can do it too.
It could end up being a typical 2-1 game like two of the last five of the last seven Stanley Cup Finals. Waiting teams out until the 1-0 score, and even then the visors don’t go up immediately. So for Florida vs. Edmonton, the under-point odds are clear to exploit here.
Florida Panthers – Edmonton Oilers Tip
There is actually enough evidence to give both teams the advantage here. The Panthers have the home-ice advantage and still the slightly better goalie, the Oilers have the momentum and the chance to make history.
It will come down to the little things and certainly won’t be a shootout. In this respect, a bet on under 5 goals is our clear recommendation for Panthers vs Oilers. Because even with exactly five goals, we would at least get our stake out of it
Alternatives are somewhat scarce for this game. For all those who prefer a goal bet, we recommend betting on a goal from Connor McDavid, who has really turned up the heat in time for the decisive games (three goals in the last three games).
