The rematch of last year’s semi-final

While Casper Ruud was given a bye into the semi-finals in the wake of Novak Djokovic’s knee injury, Alexander Zverev once again made it through in three sets after two narrow 3:2 victories on Wednesday evening. The final score was 3:0 against Alex de Minaur. The German has now reached the semi-finals of a men’s singles at a Grand Slam tournament for the eighth time. However, Casper Ruud’s win against Alexander Zverev is not under the best of circumstances for a number of reasons

Firstly, the German has abysmal odds in Grand Slam semi-finals. Sascha has only made it to the final once in seven matches. And secondly, his Norwegian opponent not only has a 100% win rate in Grand Slam semi-finals, but also eliminated the Hamburg native 3-0 in the semi-finals of the French Open a year ago. Our prediction for Casper Ruud against Alexander Zverev therefore leans towards the Norwegian

An added complication is that Alexander Zverev has been on court much longer than Casper Ruud, who had a three-day break due to his quarter-final opponent having to retire beforehand. The longer the match lasts, the more likely it is to play into the Norwegian’s hands, who, with the exception of his opening match against Brazilian qualifier Felipe Meligeni Alves, has always dropped at least one set during the tournament.

In view of the fact that Casper Ruud also won the two tournaments in Barcelona and Geneva in the 2024 clay court season and is currently unbeaten in eight consecutive singles matches, we believe that betting on the Norwegian offers the greatest value. A little more certainty can be added to the bet by placing a handicap of +1.5 on Casper Ruud at Bwin. This bookmaker also currently offers a special French Open bonus:

Casper Ruud – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 7
Position in the seeding list: 7

The 25-year-old Norwegian Casper Ruud was already the world number one in the juniors and showed that he could become a great player. The twelve singles titles he has won on the ATP Tour so far – eleven of them on his favorite surface, clay – underline this.

However, the player from Oslo is still missing the really big titles. The highlight so far was his triumph in Barcelona at an ATP 500 six weeks ago. The world number seven has lost all six major tournament finals to date – including the French Open finals in 2022 and 2023

Will Casper Ruud complete the hat-trick of finals?

The 25-year-old is now aiming to reach the final of Roland Garros for the third year in a row, where neither his 2022 conqueror Rafael Nadal nor his nemesis from last year, Novak Djokovic, could be waiting for him. The Djoker would have been his quarter-final opponent instead, but had to retire due to injury the day before the match. Casper Ruud was therefore given a bye.

This meant that the world number seven was able to rest for three days and prepare for the semi-final. Casper Ruud’s match against Alexander Zverev is therefore an interesting bet that the player from Oslo, who has never lost a semi-final at a Grand Slam tournament in three previous occasions, will have the seventh chance of his career to win a major title

Casper Ruud convinces in the return game

It has to be said, however, that the Norwegian has not exactly covered himself in glory over the course of the tournament. As mentioned at the beginning, Casper Ruud only won the opening match with a commanding 3:1 and otherwise always dropped at least one set – most recently in the round of 16 against Taylor Fritz (ATP 12), whom he beat 3:1 (7:6, 3:6, 6:4 and 6:2).

The great strength of the clay court specialist from Oslo is his strong return game, which he turns into points on the red clay, even against strong servers. Against Taylor Fritz, for example, who hit no fewer than 72 winners in the round of 16, Casper Ruud scored 44 percent of all points on his opponent’s serve – a remarkably high figure at this level.

Alexander Zverev – statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 4
Position in the seeding list: 4

The 27-year-old German Alexander Zverev reached a Grand Slam final at the US Open in 2020, which he narrowly lost 2:3 to Dominic Thiem. Since then, Sascha has been waiting for another chance to win one of the four most important titles on the ATP Tour.

However, the Hamburg native has at least won the ATP Finals twice. In 2021, the current number four in the ATP world rankings also secured the gold medal at the Olympic Games

The French Open is Alexander Zverev’s favorite

At Roland Garros this year, Alexander Zverev had to play extremely tough matches, especially in the third and fourth rounds. Both against Tallon Griekspoor (ATP 26) and Holger Rune (ATP 13), the German had to come back from 2:1 down to win two sets in a row.

However, there was no trouble in round one against clay court king Rafael Nadal (3:0) or in the semifinals against Australian Alex de Minaur (3:0). Overall, the Hamburg native has now won 33 of his 41 singles matches at the French Open, where he has achieved the feat of reaching the semi-finals for the fourth year in a row

Alexander Zverev and the semi-final curse at Grand Slams

Remarkably, the odds are now even stacking up in the German’s favor for Casper Ruud against Alexander Zverev, although he has always been eliminated in the semi-finals of Roland Garros in the last three years and has abysmal odds in the semi-finals of Grand Slam tournaments anyway.

Sascha has finished among the top four players in the men’s singles at a Grand Slam seven times so far. He has only made it to the grand final once. And yet: if he serves as strongly as he did against Alex de Minaur, when 69 percent of points were won on his first serve, his chances of reaching his second final since the 2020 US Open could be significantly worse…

Casper Ruud – Alexander Zverev head-to-head / H2H record

Head to head: 2:2

Four games have been played between the two athletes so far and with two wins each for both players, the direct comparison is completely even. However, the momentum is on the side of Casper Ruud, who has won the last two duels. A year ago, he eliminated Alexander Zverev 3:0 (6:3, 6:4 and 6:0) in the semi-finals of the French Open at the same venue

Casper Ruud – Alexander Zverev tip

It’s worth noting that the odds are stacked in the German’s favor for Casper Ruud against Alexander Zverev, even though the Norwegian was able to stop Sascha’s French Open run with a clear 3-0 victory in the semi-finals a year ago. The Oslo native is currently unbeaten in eight singles matches on clay and has never lost in a semi-final of a Grand Slam tournament to date, although his three appearances in the grand final to date have not yet resulted in a title win. Alexander Zverev, on the other hand, has failed to reach the semi-finals six times out of seven – including three times in a row at the French Open.

Casper Ruud’s prediction against Alexander Zverev is that the Hamburg native will once again have to bow out of the competition shortly before a possible Grand Slam final