Werder’s European dream shattered in Leipzig?

In addition to his main job as Werder Bremen coach, Ole Werner has also been increasingly in demand as a “criminal defense lawyer” in recent weeks and months – in reference to the regularly recurring criticism of his work. It seems as if the soccer coach has to justify his decisions at the Weser more than his colleagues at other clubs. The 36-year-old doesn’t really have a good standing with many fans, even though Werder, with limited financial resources, still have the chance to qualify for Europe with two match days to go.

However, this mission will be difficult, because in addition to a brutally complicated visit to the Red Bull Arena on Saturday afternoon, the northern Germans will also have to deal with VfL Bochum at home on the final matchday, for whom everything could still be at stake. A surprise coup at the current fourth-placed team in the table would come at just the right time, although the odds on the three-way market put a stop to this desirable scenario from Werder’s point of view virtually in the run-up to this match. The odds for the expected home win between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen are only 1.33. The implied probability of occurrence is therefore a whopping 74%.

We have analyzed in detail in the following paragraphs whether the one-sidedness in the odds distribution is actually justified or whether the betting providers licensed in Germany perhaps even have too little confidence in the guest from the Osterdeich.

RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form

Planning for the coming season is already in full swing at RB Leipzig. Many unanswered questions need to be clarified. For example, the club are still waiting for a breakthrough in negotiations over a contract extension with international Benjamin Henrichs, who is flirting with a move in the summer. There is also still a big question mark over Xavi Simons. The Dutchman can well imagine staying, but top-class rivals are keeping an eye on the technically gifted youngster, who is having a great debut season in the German top flight on loan from Paris St. Germain.

However, Simons will not be available on Saturday afternoon. Following his yellow card in the previous week’s 1-1 draw against TSG Hoffenheim, the 21-year-old, who has 20 goals in 31 league games, will have to sit out for one match. However, even without the Bundesliga’s top assist provider with ten assists from play (together with Grimaldo and Wirtz), the Saxons are considered the heavy favorites. The low odds on a home triumph between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen can primarily be explained by their recent good performances in their own stadium

RB Leipzig control the majority of home games at will

Leipzig have won five of their last six BL home games (5-1-0) and conceded just one goal in total. Union Berlin, Mönchengladbach, VfL Wolfsburg and Darmstadt 98 have all been defeated, including Clean Sheet. In general, the (still) reigning cup winners have the second-best home defense of all 18 first division teams, having conceded just eleven goals at home. A maximum of four goals have been scored in eight of the twelve BL home wins this season, which is why we are by no means averse to predicting a commanding three-goal haul for the hosts in conjunction with the under 4.5 between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen this weekend.

In general, the Rose eleven are in truly remarkable form. They have lost just one of their last 13 league games (9-3-1). The fourth-placed team have now not lost in nine league matches. Since matchday 26, only the German champions from Leverkusen have collected more points than the Leipzig Bulls.

Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda, among others, are the guarantors for the strong final third of the season, having maintained their great form for weeks and always being good for goals. Sesko has scored at least once in each of his last five BL games and now has twelve goals to his name. Openda has even scored ten goals in the last seven BL games. It is quite possible that the 24-time Bundesliga goalscorer will score the important 1:0 at the weekend

Predicted line-up for RB Leipzig:

Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form

A few weeks ago, only the boldest optimists would have thought that SV Werder Bremen could still dream of qualifying for the European Cup with two matchdays to go. For a long time, the Green-Whites were stuck in the bottom of the table and even had to worry about not being dragged deep into the relegation mess. Thanks to the 38 points collected, however, the spectre of relegation has long since been banished from the Osterdeich and the focus is now on the top half of the table.

It was therefore all the more bitter for coach Ole Werner’s team that a 2:1 lead in their home match against Borussia Mönchengladbach last weekend was not enough to secure a three-pointer. Florian Neuhaus scored in stoppage time to equalize 2-2 and prevent Bremen from climbing to ninth place. That is to be made up for on Saturday afternoon in the Red Bull Arena, although their record so far this season against the absolute top teams in the Beletage does not read particularly well

Bremen want to finally topple another top team

With the exception of a 1:0 win at the Allianz Arena at the end of January against a very weak Bayern, Bremen have not managed a single victory against clubs that are currently among the top five teams in the table. Their record at away stadiums also hardly provides any real arguments to justify a prediction of a points haul for the visitors from the north between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen. After all, the last away game in Augsburg was won 3-0 after four previous games without a win (0-1-3).

All in all, however, we have justified doubts that Nick Woltemade and Co. will be able to pick up anything worthwhile in Leipzig after picking up seven points from their last three league games. We would even be cautious with regard to scoring an away goal, because with just 18 goals in 16 away games, the offense has not worked as well in opposing stadiums as it has at home.

If the Saxons manage to take Marvin Ducksch in particular out of the game, that should be half the battle. With 19 goals this season (twelve goals, seven assists), the attacker is once again his team’s top scorer. In the past three matchdays alone, Ducksch has scored or assisted five goals. Anyone who believes the men from the Weser will score at least one goal on Saturday can place a corresponding bet at Sunmaker Sportwetten. However, the 1.46 on offer does not offer any value in our eyes.

Predicted Werder Bremen line-up:

RB Leipzig – Werder Bremen Direct comparison / H2H result

The head-to-head also speaks a very clear language in favor of Leipzig, who have won nine of their previous 13 Bundesliga matches against SV Werder Bremen (9-2-2). On average, the Green-Whites have scored just 0.62 points against the Saxons. 69% of all meetings in the league have been lost. No other club that Werder have faced more often in the top flight have worse statistics. Nevertheless, Werner’s charges will have fond memories of the first leg, as they managed a decent 1-1 draw at home

RB Leipzig – Werder Bremen betting tip

Although Bremen are having a solid season and are still in contention for a European spot, the odds are likely to be too high this weekend. RB coach Marco Rose will share the same assessment, as the former Dortmund man has never lost to SV Werder (5-2-0) in his seven Bundesliga games as coach to date. There are many indications that this streak will continue after Saturday.

In the run-up to the match between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen, the betting odds suggest that the hosts are the heavy favorites. No wonder, as the Saxons have picked up 16 points from their last six home games and conceded just one goal during this impressive run. What’s more, with the exception of the 1-0 win in Munich, the Green-Whites have so far not necessarily appeared to be the favorites. Moreover, Werner’s side have won just one of their last five matches in the Bundesliga

There is therefore no alternative for us to place a bet on a home win for Leipzig. However, to give the overall odds a decisive boost, we combine RB’s success with the under 4.5 and point out that only Leverkusen have conceded fewer goals at home than Rose’s team.

The Under 4.5 would have gone through in eight of the twelve BL home victories of the Bulls, so that we play with five units as a bet between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen on the Leipzig three with a maximum of four goals in the course of the game