Will Japan record another resounding victory?
After the major continental event at AFC level in the form of the Asian Cup in Qatar in January/February, the Asian national soccer teams are now turning their attention to the 2026 World Cup finals in North America. There are still 36 teams in the second of five qualifying rounds for the next World Cup. As a result, there are still numerous underdogs in the field of participants who want to give the big favorites a run for their money
One such David vs. Goliath constellation can be found in Tokyo on Thursday morning, where Japan will face North Korea. For the bet on the home win, just 1.06 is offered at the top of the three-way market. The implied probability of occurrence is a whopping 93%, meaning that anything other than a commanding victory for the “Samurai Blue”, who are clearly the stronger team in terms of quality, would be a huge surprise. However, the bookmakers are even predicting a clear favorite victory with a difference of several goals.
However, if you don’t want to take the risk of a handicap bet – also in view of the rather disappointing Asian Cup from a Japanese perspective – you will find a wide range of over/under odds at Interwetten, which refer either to the entire match or to individual halves. If you are a new customer and want to register with Interwetten, you can look forward to an attractive bonus of 100% up to €100 on your first deposit.
Japan – Statistics & current form
The Asian Cup did not go as planned for the Japanese team at the start of the year. Even in the group stage, the “Samurai Blue” fell short of their own expectations, conceding a total of five goals against teams such as Indonesia and Vietnam and losing 2-1 to Iraq. After a fitting victory over Bahrain in the round of 16, coach Hajime Moriyasu’s team were eventually eliminated by Iran in the quarter-finals. After winning four titles in the previous eight editions, Japan’s performance this year was one of the weakest in the association’s entire history.
However, because the 55-year-old coach has done a very good job since 2018, caused a sensation at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar by reaching the round of 16 ahead of Spain and Germany and also delivered many outstanding results in the past international year, Moriyasu, whose contract was extended until July 2026 anyway, can continue in his role as national coach.
Are the Japanese on fire again?
Japan’s next big goal is the World Cup finals in just over two years’ time, for which they are currently laying the foundations in qualifying. On the first two matchdays in Group B, the players from the Land of the Rising Sun, who have now climbed to 18th place in the world rankings, did not show any weakness at all and first swept Myanmar and then Syria off the pitch with 5-0 victories. In both cases, the East Asians were already leading 3-0 at half-time.
The four-time Asian Cup winners can generally be described as lightning starters, as the “Samurai Blue” have scored at least one goal in the first half in 14 of the 17 international matches they have played since the start of the 2023 soccer year. In more than half of all matches (nine out of 17), there were even two or more goals in the first 45 minutes. Even against Germany (4:1, 2:1 at the break), Turkey (4:2, half-time: 3:1) or Canada (4:1, half-time: 3:0), the conditions for outstanding results were always created before the break. In our view, it is very likely that this will also be the case on Thursday in the third World Cup qualifier in Tokyo. The odds on a high-scoring first half between Japan and North Korea are therefore worth considering.
Even without the two injured Premier League professionals Mitoma (Brighton) and Tomiyasu (Arsenal), coach Moriyasu can call on a powerful and prominent line-up. This includes four Bundesliga players in Ritsu Doan (Freiburg), Takuma Asano (Bochum), Hiroki Ito (Stuttgart) and Ko Itakura (Gladbach). Feyenoord professional Ayase Ueda has scored the most goals in qualifying so far. The attacker needed just 132 minutes to score his five goals in two games…
Predicted Japan line-up:
Suzuki; Maikuma, Machida, Ikatura, Ito; Endo, Morita; Doan, Kubo, Maeda; Ueda
North Korea – statistics & current form
You won’t find any familiar names in the North Korean line-up. How could they? With the exception of one player, all the national team players earn their money at home. This exception is 24-year-old In-Ju Mun, who is under contract with FC Gifu in Japan’s third division. This curious fact alone, which invites cross-comparisons in terms of individual quality, clearly underlines why the odds are so one-sided in favour of the home team in the unequal duel between Japan and North Korea
North Korea remains a soccer wonder bag
Other reasons are obvious and are based, among other things, on the recent results of the North Korean national team, which is often called “Ch’ŏllima” after a creature from Korean mythology. Coach Yong-nam Sin’s team lost 0:1 against Syria, but still managed a 6:1 victory against Myanmar. The 114th-ranked team in the world therefore has every hope of taking the all-important second place in Group B. However, there is little hope of anything tangible coming out of the upcoming “double header” against Japan on Thursday and next Tuesday.
Especially in view of the fact that the national team has hardly any match practice at a decent level. In 2023, the two qualifying matches were the only two matches scored. In the new year 2024, the underdogs have yet to play an official international match.
Although it can be assumed that the national team will be pulled together at home time and time again in order to reach a good level, the lack of competitive toughness means that it would be a surprise – as things stand – if the North Koreans, who last made their mark at intercontinental level at the World Cup in South Africa in 2020, were to get a decent result in Tokyo. We think it’s more realistic to predict that Endo, Minamino and Co. will win both halves of the first leg between Japan and North Korea.
Predicted line-up of North Korea:
Kang; O.Choe, Y.Kim, Jang, J.Choe; K.Kim, Ri, J-S Choe; Paek, Hang, Jong
Japan – North Korea head-to-head comparison / H2H result
19 meetings between the two national teams so far. The direct comparison is by no means as clearly in Japan’s favor as expected. Eight victories for the “Samurai Blue” are offset by seven defeats and four draws. However, the head-to-head must be taken with a pinch of salt, as the last encounter dates back to 2017 and was a friendly match that Japan narrowly won 1:0. In fact, all of their competitive matches took place over ten years ago. Since then, the Japanese have clearly developed better than the North Koreans in terms of soccer.
Japan – North Korea tip
In the second round of the Asian World Cup qualifiers for the 2026 finals, there are a total of nine groups of four teams. After six match days (first and second round), the field will be halved to 18 teams. The top two teams in each pool of four will therefore advance to the next round. While this is likely to be a mere formality for the “Samurai Blue”, every point is hugely important for the North Koreans. Especially against the group leaders and heavy favorites from the Land of the Rising Sun.
On Thursday and Tuesday, the underdogs will have the chance to topple the favorites. However, the betting odds on the three-way market between Japan and North Korea show just how difficult this mission will be. Acceptable quotes can only be found for a home win with at least a three-goal lead. The classification is quite understandable, as a look at the line-ups reveals a stark difference in quality and experience.
As the bottom line is that it is still difficult to correctly assess the visitors’ true capabilities, our betting tip is for a high-scoring first half between Japan and North Korea. For at least two goals in the first 45 minutes, which seems absolutely realistic, especially in view of the Moriyasu eleven’s lightning start abilities, a 2.05 is offered at Interwetten.
