Terzic and his BVB ahead of the most important game of the season
The most important match of the season so far awaits Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday evening. The Black & Yellows are at home against the undisputed Eredivisie leaders from Eindhoven in the second leg of the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League. First and foremost, it’s all about the prestigious place among the last eight teams in Europe’s most important club competition. At second glance, however, the duel logically also offers a financial incentive. Added to this is the immense importance of this match for Edin Terzic, who would lose a lot of credit with fans and the board if he were to be eliminated – also with regard to his continued employment beyond the summer.
The Black & Yellows certainly have the better starting position with regard to the vacant place in the CL quarter-finals, having drawn 1-1 in the first leg three weeks ago and now fully banking on home advantage. No wonder, because if BVB did not lose the first match away from home in the knockout round of the premier class, they always progressed after the second leg in their own stadium
Dortmund – statistics & current form
For the first time since the 2020/21 season, Borussia Dortmund are aiming to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League again. After the Black & Yellows failed to reach the group stage or the round of 16 in the past two seasons, BVB will be looking to reward themselves for a strong first round on Wednesday evening. Because Borussia finished first in the “Group of Death” with PSG, AC Milan and Newcastle, coach Edin Terzic’s team enjoys home advantage in the second leg of the round of 16, which could play a decisive role in the Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven odds on the three-way market.
Borussia remained unbeaten in all three home games in the group stage and conceded just one goal. In fact, the Westphalians have not lost any of their last eight Champions League matches at home this season (4-4-0). Especially when the floodlights come on at Dortmund’s soccer temple during the week, the cult club from the Ruhr region is very difficult to beat. It seems unlikely that this will change on Wednesday evening – despite the undoubted pressure situation
Will the BVB defense decide the game?
In addition to the home bonus, the significantly improved defense since the winter break also speaks for this. In all ten competitive matches played in the 2024 calendar year, only seven goals were conceded in total. Black & Yellow kept a clean sheet five times. In addition, only one team – TSG Hoffenheim – was actually able to score twice or more against the BVB defense in all competitions. With this in mind, we take a closer look at the combined odds of 1X & Under 3.5 between Dortmund and PSV Eindhoven. Betano is offering a 2.15 top price for this.
In terms of self-confidence, the Terzic team also seems to be on the right track. After the avoidable 2:3 defeat at home to TSG Hoffenheim at the end of February, Borussia won their last two difficult away matches at Union Berlin (2:0) and on the Weser against Werder Bremen (2:1). Fourth place in the interim standings was thus maintained for the time being. In most cases in which Mats Hummels and Co. were in debt this season, they delivered! A good omen for the CL second leg on Wednesday evening?
Speaking of Mats Hummels: The defensive veteran will almost certainly start, as Nico Schlotterbeck is suspended with a yellow card. Apart from that, Edin Terzic can virtually draw from the full squad. However, not many changes are expected compared to the first leg. Brandt for Reus would be an option. However, this also means that the reigning runners-up will once again rely on Jadon Sancho on the left side of attack. The 23-year-old scored his first goal since his return at the weekend and is getting better and better. In the UEFA Champions League, Sancho was involved in eight goals in eleven home games for BVB. Together with Malen and Füllkrug, Sancho should cause problems for the PSV defense.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
PSV Eindhoven – Statistics & current form
2017/18 Peter Bosz was on the touchline for Borussia Dortmund. The Dutchman got off to a dream start with BVB, collecting 19 points in the first seven matchdays and was even five points ahead of FC Bayern at that point. However, Bosz was relieved of his duties at the beginning of December 2017 because only three points were gained from the following eight Bundesliga matches, Black & Yellows were eliminated in the Champions League group stage and finally surrendered a 4:0 lead against Schalke 04 (4:4).
Although the 60-year-old no longer harbors any grudges against his former employer, there is still a desire for revenge. However, the statistics show that his PSV rightly have the status of underdogs in the second leg. On the one hand, because the Dutch side have not won any of their last six away games in the knockout phase of the Champions League. On the other hand, against the background that the “Lamps” have always been eliminated in the last three knockout matches in the top flight if the first leg could not be won at home.
PSV have slowed down in recent weeks
The fact that the Red & Whites have struggled away from home in particular was also evident in the group stage, when they won just one of their three matches. Seven of the total of ten goals conceded were in opposing stadiums. Arsenal FC, for example, suffered a 4:0 defeat. To make matters worse, PSV have not won any of their last 16 European Cup matches in Germany (0-3-13). The 24-time national champions have been waiting for a full success in their neighboring country since 1977.
Another aspect that may have a negative impact on Bosz’s team’s chances is their lack of competitiveness. At national level, Philips’ Sport Vereniging has – strictly speaking – been playing out of competition for many weeks. With a current ten-point lead over Feyenoord, nobody believes that the Eredivisie championship will be lost. Maintaining focus and concentration is proving very difficult in view of their dominance. Time and again, the “Rood-Witten” have recently suffered lapses. The 1:0 win at Go Ahead Eagles at the weekend was also more in the category of a lackluster work victory.
As the first leg lacked a sparkling attacking idea and the lack of experience of many players at this highest possible level in European soccer could also become an issue, we are refraining from predicting that the “Boeren” will progress ahead of the second leg between Dortmund and PSV Eindhoven. Finally, the possible absences of muscleman Saibari and striker Veerman should not be underestimated and further increase the likelihood of BVB progressing.
PSV Eindhoven’s expected line-up:
Dortmund – PSV Eindhoven head-to-head comparison / H2H result
The first two competitive matches between these teams date back to the 2002/03 CL season, when Dortmund took four out of a possible six points in the group stage (3:1, 1:1). Far more relevant, however, are the impressions from the first leg three weeks ago, in which Malen put the Black & Yellows ahead. Luuk de Jong equalized after a controversial penalty to make the final score 1:1. The level of this encounter was manageable. The focus was on minimizing risk. An open and lively festival of goals is also unlikely to happen on Wednesday evening
Dortmund – PSV Eindhoven tip
After the 1:1 draw in the first leg, the second leg between Borussia Dortmund and PSV Eindhoven is completely open. A long Wednesday evening including extra time and a penalty shoot-out seems possible, even though the bookmakers are giving Black & Yellow a slight advantage. This assessment is, in turn, entirely understandable, as the home bonus tips the scales in BVB’s favor in this second round of 16 clash.
Borussia have not lost any of their last eight CL home games, can draw on a full squad with the exception of the suspended Schlotterbeck and have recently boosted their confidence with two important away wins at Union and Werder Bremen. The visitors from the Netherlands, meanwhile, have lost some of their flow from the first half of the season, are weaker away from home than at home anyway and have not won any of their last 16 international matches in Germany. According to the betting odds, Dortmund will therefore be the favorites against PSV Eindhoven
After intensive research and taking into account all the aforementioned signs, we agree with this assessment and try to bet on a home win after regular time between Dortmund and PSV Eindhoven. Happybet offers a maximum odds of 2.10, which is worth an average bet of five units
