Can Aston Villa keep up the pace at the top?

On matchday 22 of England’s top division, the top match between Aston Villa and Newcastle United will take place on Tuesday. The roles appear to be quite clearly defined, as while the home side are currently in one of the four Champions League places, the visitors are only in tenth place and therefore mid-table in the Premier League. For this reason, the betting odds between Aston Villa and Newcastle favor a win for the home team

However, we should not underestimate the visiting team, as the Magpies won the first leg 5-1, inflicting Villa’s heaviest defeat in 2023. Eddie Howe’s side also missed four more big chances and dominated the game at will. However, with the hosts yet to lose a single game at Villa Park, the odds between Aston Villa and Newcastle are clearly against a win for the visitors

We recommend betting on a goal from Alexander Isak between Aston Villa and Newcastle. The Swede is having a great season so far and has scored 14 goals in 24 appearances in all competitions. With four goals in the last five games, the home side’s striker has been on fire of late. The 24-year-old attacker is now one of the most valuable center forwards in the world (fifth place with 70 million euros).

This Premier League match kicks off at 9:15pm on Tuesday at Villa Park in Birmingham. The game can be watched live and in full on Sky or Wow.

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

Aston Villa are currently in fourth place in the Premier League and are even fighting for a Champions League place. Unai Emery’s team have picked up 43 points from 21 games and are having a fantastic season. As Arsenal FC and Manchester City are currently level on points, the home side could temporarily overtake their rivals with a win against Newcastle. However, the two rivals would also have to slip up in their games against Nottingham Forest and Burnley FC for that to happen

Unbeatable on home turf

A look at their impressive record makes it clear that Aston Villa not only perform at home, but also in front of their own fans. Unai Emery’s team have now been unbeaten in their own stadium for ten games and have only dropped two points in the process. This puts the home side in first place in the home table, ahead of teams such as Manchester City, Arsenal FC and Liverpool FC.

Ollie Watkins is not only the most valuable player in AV’s squad on paper, but also on the pitch. The Aston Villa center forward has already scored 14 goals this season, making him the Villans’ top scorer. At the same time, he is also the best provider of assists for his team and has already set up ten goals. In a league-wide comparison, there are only two players who have been involved in more goals this season. We would therefore not be surprised if the really big clubs came knocking.

An attack-minded offense

With 65 goals in 32 games in all competitions (⌀2.03), the hosts’ attacking line has been very dangerous so far. In the Premier League, the home side even have one of the best attacking lines in the league (4th place). In addition, Unai Emery’s team have only failed to score four times this season. Conversely, this means that Aston Villa have found the back of the net in 88% of their matches. However, with just one goal in the last three competitive games, the air has been a little out of steam recently.

While the offense has been virtually unstoppable this season, Aston Villa’s back line has lacked the necessary consistency. For this reason, the Villains have already conceded 27 goals in 21 league games. In addition, Unai Emery’s team have only kept a clean sheet five times, conceding at least one goal in 76% of their games. The home side should improve in this category, especially when compared to the other top teams.

Aston Villa’s probable line-up:

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

Newcastle United have fallen well short of their own expectations this season, picking up just 29 points from 21 games. This puts the visiting team in tenth place in England’s top flight and therefore only in mid-table in the Premier League. Compared to the previous season, Eddie Howe’s team has dropped six places. In addition, the gap to the international places (top 5) is currently eleven points. Another defeat would therefore further reduce their chances.

Despite their promising performances at home, Newcastle rarely manage to put in the desired performances away from home. For this reason, the Magpies are also one of the weakest away teams in the league this season. Eddie Howe’s team have picked up just five points from ten away games and are only 19th in the away table, with their only away win to date coming against Sheffield United on matchday six.

Injury misery

Eddie Howe had to make do without a number of players against Aston Villa, demonstrating his talent for improvisation. With Callum Wilson, Miguel Almiron, Harvey Barnes, Joe Willock, Sandor Tonalli, Joelinton, Jamaal Lascelles, Matt Targett, Tino Livramento and Nick Pope all missing, ten potential regulars are out. Fortunately, the Magpies’ squad is so broad that we will still get to see a strong first eleven. However, game-changing substitutions are not within the realms of possibility.

With 57 goals in 32 games (⌀1.78), the visiting team’s offense is also very respectable and has only failed to score seven times. This means that Eddie Howe’s team managed to put the ball in the opposition goal in 78% of their matches. In the Premier League, the rate is even slightly better and currently stands at just under 86%. It would therefore be no surprise if the Magpies’ fans were also able to cheer a goal in the match against Aston Villa.

The visiting team have already conceded 40 goals in 32 games this season and have often allowed too many chances to score. Nevertheless, Newcastle United have already kept twelve clean sheets this season and have kept a clean sheet in seven of their 21 league games. While that sounds promising, Eddie Howe’s side have only conceded once away from home in the Premier League.

Predicted Newcastle line-up:

Aston Villa – Newcastle head-to-head / H2H record

The direct comparison between the two teams goes to the visiting team. Newcastle won 74 matches against Aston Villa, while 40 games ended in a draw and the visitors “only” won 58 games. Recently, however, the results have been very even, with the home team winning six of the last seven encounters. For this reason, our prediction between Aston Villa and Newcastle is more in favor of the hosts

Aston Villa – Newcastle betting tip

The home side are rightly favored in this duel, as the Villans’ home record is almost perfect. However, with just two wins from their last six games, the hosts look vulnerable. What’s more, the Magpies have won two of their last three games and also won the first leg 5-1. The visitors will therefore not give up without a fight. We therefore recommend betting on “both teams score – yes” between Aston Villa and Newcastle

Alternatively, we recommend the odds for a win for the home team between Aston Villa and Newcastle. This is partly due to the home side’s strong home record, coupled with the visitors’ poor away record and injury woes. Unai Emery’s side should therefore prevail over 90 minutes and record their 14th win of the current Premier League season