Will Mainz be the final opponent for Terzic?

The date is May 27, 2023, and Borussia Dortmund have the opportunity to win the championship at home against FSV Mainz 05. All it needs is a home win. After less than 30 minutes, the Rheinhessen side were leading 2-0 in a hushed Signal Iduna Park. BVB bared their teeth and managed to equalize 2-2 in stoppage time, but ultimately had to watch FC Bayern lift the championship trophy in Cologne for the eleventh time in a row. Almost seven months later, this emotional duel will be repeated – but this time with completely different omens

Borussia are currently just as far away from another run at the national championship as FSV are from a carefree season in the middle of the Bundesliga table. This makes predicting the outcome of the game between Dortmund and Mainz all the more complicated. Based on recent impressions, there is definitely a risk that the team led by coach Edin Terzic will suffer the next setback and prove to be a set-up for the relegation candidates from the carnival stronghold

Although the visitors, under the management of Jan Siewert, have not yet been able to land the final liberating blow, their performances have mostly been good. However, there is still not a particularly good relationship between effort and return for the five-man team. If we assume that the Red & Whites will once again be inefficient in front of the yellow wall, there is much to suggest that the 80,000-plus spectators will see a relatively tough match without many goals on Tuesday evening. It is therefore even surprising that quite high odds are being offered for the under 3.5 bet in the Dortmund v Mainz match

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Borussia Dortmund’s matches at national level are currently proving to be painful challenges for all ardent BVB fans. Anyone watching the Black & Yellows’ performance in Augsburg on Saturday afternoon needed nerves of steel and a huge tolerance for frustration not to switch off their devices prematurely. The reigning runners-up once again disappointed across the board, playing out promising attacking situations like a (poor) youth team, being completely careless defensively on several occasions and therefore deservedly having to settle for a sobering 1-1 draw after 90 minutes.

Curiously, the winners of CL Group F also had their best player in Donyell Malen. In other words, the Dutch international, who has hardly played a role in Edin Terzic’s system of late, only made the starting eleven due to Adeyemi’s injury and has obviously communicated his thoughts of leaving the club. The fact that Malen was an asset, top scorer and difference-maker in many of the matches in which he was allowed to play makes the entire personnel situation incomprehensible.

Regardless of where his journey takes him from January 2024, we can see the winger as a potential goalscorer on Tuesday evening. Interwetten are offering attractive odds of 2.85 for Malen to score in the Dortmund v Mainz match.

Will a win not help Terzic?

We are even more skeptical about Dortmund’s chances of winning. BVB have now been winless in five competitive matches. There has not been such a negative streak for almost five years. Borussia have scored a meagre six points in the last seven league matches. Only Union Berlin and Darmstadt 98 have scored worse than Terzic’s team in this period. The 16 goals conceded are also only surpassed by the bottom team from Darmstadt. Dortmund definitely do not look like a top team in the Bundesliga. Consequently, this could possibly be Edin Terzic’s last game as head coach. His position is not completely undisputed

Hope for Tuesday evening, however, is given by the fact that the 2023 soccer year can end in their own stadium. The Black & Yellows have been much stronger at Signal Iduna Park this season than away from home. The club has been particularly impressive at home against teams from the bottom half of the table, which is why it is ultimately worth considering a home win. In this context, the odds on a three-goal win for the home side in conjunction with a maximum of four goals in the course of the match between Dortmund and Mainz are exciting. Instead of a measly 1.55 on the three-way market, the total odds can be raised to 2.10 at Betano.

Predicted Dortmund line-up:

Mainz – Statistics & current form

With just nine points after 15 matchdays, FSV Mainz 05 have so far played the second-worst Bundesliga season in the club’s history. With this meagre haul, the Rheinhessen side remain in a direct relegation spot (17th), but could potentially climb one place with a simple points haul. In the worst-case scenario, however, the gap to the safety zone on the last matchday before the winter break would even grow to four points.

However, the public perception of the Nullfünfer has improved in recent weeks. Under Jan Siewert, who initially took over on an interim basis following the emotional resignation of Bo Svensson and has probably recommended himself for a permanent role – at least due to his approach – the Red & Whites have stabilized considerably. However, positive results have once again failed to materialize recently. FSV have been winless for five Bundesliga games in a row (two draws, three defeats). This is curious in that Mainz had a higher xG value after 90 minutes than their opponents in all five of these matches

Mainz can’t win games without scoring goals

Nonetheless, the team at the bottom of the table should not take the easy way out and cite a lack of luck or bad luck in converting chances as the primary reasons for the results crisis. Rather, it is now inability, a lack of quality in finishing or simply poor decision-making in the final third that has led to Ludovic Ajorque, Jonny Burkardt and Co. scoring just one measly goal in the five games mentioned above.

The last results from FSV’s point of view were 0:1, 0:0, 0:1, 1:1 and 0:0. In six consecutive Bundesliga games of the Nullfünfer, the under 2.5 would have gone through. Considering the decent defense and one of the worst offenses in the league comparison, it is a good idea to place the odds on an under bet between Dortmund and Mainz. The under 3.5 is very attractively quoted and definitely offers value.

However, the fact that Siewert’s team will travel to the West as clear underdogs is certainly also due to their weakness on the road. The relegation candidates are still waiting in vain for an away win. However, the Red & Whites have recently shared the points away from home five times in a row. A maximum odds of 4.90 can be played at Bet3000 for an X on Tuesday evening

Predicted Mainz line-up:

Dortmund – Mainz Direct comparison / H2H balance

Not just since the last home game mentioned at the beginning, Mainz 05 are not really welcome guests at Signal Iduna Park. Dortmund have won just two of their last six matches against the Rheinhessen side in front of their own fans. They have just five points from their last four home matches in the Bundesliga against their upcoming opponents. Only against FC Bayern have the Black & Yellows picked up fewer points at home than against Mainz in the last four seasons. After all, a bet on the under 3.5 would have gone through in twelve of the last 16 meetings in the German top flight

Dortmund – Mainz betting tip

It’s a bit of a paradox, but although Edin Terzic still has the second-best average among current Bundesliga coaches, his time as Borussia Dortmund coach could be slowly coming to an end. Although efforts are still being made in the Pott to back the beleaguered coach, it has become clear in recent weeks – with the exception of the Champions League – that ideas are lacking, there is no recognizable signature and many key players are performing below their potential.

Losing another point on Tuesday evening against their fearsome opponents from Rheinhessen, who ensured BVB’s runners-up spot at the end of May 2023, could be the last straw. As Borussia have always lost the last match before the winter break in the last four years, another setback is looming. As a result, betting on a home win between Dortmund and Mainz is not our preferred approach. The 1.55 at the top contains no value at all, only with an extension with a maximum of four goals in the course of the match does a corresponding bet seem playable

Since Reus, Schlotterbeck, Füllkrug and Co. have given us enough reasons to doubt a confident three-goal win in recent weeks, we are switching to the goal market and pushing the odds for under 3.5 between Dortmund and Mainz. BVB makes many wrong decisions in the final third, FSV has one of the weakest and most ineffective offenses in the league. It could develop into a tough duel in which a maximum of three goals are scored.