Will Brazil slip down the rankings?
For the first time in the history of the FIFA World Cup, the 2026 finals will be held with 48 instead of 32 national teams. In order to complete the artificially inflated field of participants, the qualification modalities have also been rewritten. In South America, six instead of four teams will definitely be involved in future. A seventh South American country will have the chance to secure a ticket via an intercontinental play-off tournament. This means that only three representatives from the CONMEBOL zone will miss out
This is one of the reasons why the Brazilian national team’s start to the World Cup qualifiers did not go entirely according to plan. The Selecao recently lost 2-0 in Uruguay and have just seven points out of a possible twelve after four matchdays. The star ensemble from Sugar Loaf Mountain will be looking to bounce back on Thursday night with an away win in Baranquilla. However, the odds alone underline that betting on the Diniz team ahead of the Colombia v Brazil match involves a number of risks
In particular, the Colombian selection should not be taken lightly, as they are the only team – alongside the world champions from Argentina – to have marched through qualifying unbeaten so far. Defensively, the world number 17 has hardly conceded anything so far, meaning that the fifth matchday between Colombia and Brazil is likely to be another low-scoring encounter
Colombia – statistics & current form
It was less than ten years ago that the Colombian national team, led by former Bayern Munich star James Rodriguez, caused a huge sensation at the 2014 World Cup. Only in the quarter-finals did “Los Cafeteros” fall to the hosts Brazil. The footballers from the northern part of South America reached the knockout round again in 2018, but lost out to England on penalties in the round of 16. However, the Colombians surprisingly missed out on the most recent edition of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, finishing sixth in CONMEBOL qualifying.
The desire to return to the biggest possible intercontinental soccer stage in 2026 in the USA, Mexico and Canada is all the greater. The current world number 17 can certainly be satisfied with the start to the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. Although they have “only” six points after four matchdays, the Colombians are still completely unbeaten with one win and three draws
Better a 0:0 than a 2:2
Four of the six points mentioned above were scored at home. There were two goalless draws away from home, which are emblematic of the minimalist soccer played by Argentinian head coach Nestor Lorenzo’s team. In fact, “Los Cafeteros” went six out of eight international matches in the 2023 calendar year without conceding a goal. Among others, they also put the DFB team in their place with a 2-0 win in the summer. There was also a 2:1 victory in Japan.
However, the fact that they have failed to score in nine of their last 13 (!) matches at competitive level should give food for thought. In the meantime, the Colombians have failed to score in seven consecutive qualifying matches. The inadequate offense therefore remains the biggest problem, which can also be explained by the fact that the classic superstar is currently missing from the squad. Luis Diaz of Liverpool FC could take on this role, but has had other problems to deal with in recent weeks following the abduction of his parents. Fortunately, his father and mother are now free again.
Coach Lorenzo will once again focus on a strong defense and try to keep things tight for as long as possible in order to achieve success through targeted counterattacks as the game progresses. Anyone who believes that the favored national team from Sugarloaf Mountain will only take control of the match after the break can take advantage of attractive odds of 5.00 on the double result HTX/FT2 between Colombia and Brazil.
Predicted Colombia line-up:
Montero; Mosquera, Cuesta, Sanchez, Machado; Uribe, Lerma; J. Arias, Rodriguez, Dias; Borre
Brazil – Statistics & current form
The Brazilian national soccer team is currently in a transitional phase. Fernando Diniz, who won the Copa Libertadores as Fluminense’s club coach just two weeks ago, is currently the interim coach. There are many indications that the 49-year-old, who is said to have a good relationship with numerous stars, is merely keeping his place on the bench warm before Carlo Ancelotti takes over in the summer of 2024, when his contract with Real Madrid expires, and is expected to lead the record world champions to the Copa America and ultimately the 2026 World Cup.
Nevertheless, the world number three must aim to achieve better results in the final international phase in 2023 than in recent months. It is also about returning the samba mentality, regaining the almost completely lost joy of playing and regaining their own reputation, which the “Verde-Amarela” has increasingly lost of late
All of Brazil is looking forward to the possible debut of Endrick
In October, for example, the Selecao lost their away game in Uruguay 2-0, conceding a defeat in South American qualifying for the first time since October 2015. The 2002 world champions had previously gone 37 consecutive matches unbeaten in continental qualifying. A few days earlier, the Brazilians had also had to settle for a disappointing 1:1 draw against Venezuela.
Anyone who thinks another loss by the favorites in Baranquilla is possible will find double chance 1X odds of 1.57 at DAZN Bet ahead of the match between Colombia and Brazil.
By the way, there were no big surprises in the squad nominations. Neymar is missing through injury, Gabriel Jesus was called up to the squad despite injury, but will not be able to play. One of the most exciting newcomers is the 17-year-old Endrick from Palmeiras, who is seen as a promise for the future and could make his debut. Apart from that, the outstanding quality and breadth of the squad is a further indication of why we are ultimately leaning towards a Colombia vs Brazil away win prediction.
Predicted Brazil line-up:
Alisson; Emerson, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Augusto; Guimaraes, Andre, Joelinton; Rodrygo, Pedro, Vinicius Jr
Colombia – Brazil head-to-head / H2H result
The two teams have faced each other 14 times in the course of World Cup qualifying in South America. Colombia have not yet managed a single victory. Brazil have prevailed seven times and seven matches have ended in draws. If we look at all 35 international matches, the balance is 21 Brazilian victories, eleven draws and only three wins for Colombia. The Selecao have also won two of their last three competitive matches, although the last head-to-head in Colombia ended in a goalless draw
Colombia – Brazil betting tip
In the South American World Cup qualifiers, low-scoring matches are virtually the order of the day. Under bets go through much more often than over bets. As a result, it is not really surprising that very low odds of under 2.5 are on offer between Colombia and Brazil. In our opinion, these odds are too low to be considered acceptable value. A corresponding bet would only become more interesting if it were linked to the X2.
However, we are of the opinion that it makes even more sense to bet on an away win for the Selecao. It should not be forgotten that the record world champions won only two of their first four qualifying matches, lost 2-0 in Uruguay and have only won four of their last ten international matches away from home. However, there is always a chance that the quality available on the pitch will make itself felt.
Because the home side have never beaten the men from the Sugarloaf Mountain in 14 attempts to qualify for the South American World Cup (0-7-7) and “Los Cafeteros” themselves have failed to score in nine of their last 13 qualifying matches, we like the fairly high 2.25 on the Diniz team to win in Baranquilla.
