Does the Commanders defense perform the next revelation?

Many experts assumed in the run-up to the season that the Atlanta Falcons would primarily want to push their rebuild and would not have much to do with the NFL playoffs. However, Desmond Ridder and Co. have already proved their critics wrong in the first five days of play. With a positive record of three wins and two losses, the Falcons are currently in second place in the NFC South.

On Sunday night there is also a good chance to further polish their own winning record and celebrate two wins in a row for the second time this season. In the home game of the Falcons against the Commanders, the tip on the success of the home side brings the lower odds. The “Dirty Birds” therefore go into this encounter as favorites and are keen to confirm their good form after the narrow 21:19 win from the previous week against the Texans.

On the other side, the franchise from the capital is fighting against the negative trend. After a promising start with two wins in the first two weeks, Washington has recently suffered three heavy defeats in a row. Quarterback Sam Howell was not NFL-ready in many phases of the game, so that on Sunday evening at 7:00 p.m. there is a lot to be said for a prediction on the host from Atlanta coming true in the duel between the Falcons and the Commanders.

Atlanta Falcons – statistics & current form

As already mentioned in the introduction, the Atlanta Falcons started the season without the very big expectations. This was partly due to the fact that franchise officials could not know one hundred percent how Desmond Ridder will be able to fulfill his first starter job in the NFL. The 24-year-old quarterback had previously only been active as a backup and had only played in four games last year.

After five days of play, the playmaker can now be given an initial interim assessment. In terms of school grades, he would probably get an average three. In terms of quarterback rating, Ridder is in the lower midfield, but with “only” three interceptions thrown, he is in the upper third. In general, the Louisville, Kentucky man is doing well right now to minimize risk in the passing game and rely on the strong running game and good defense.

Run-first team with good defense

It is fair to say that the Falcons field a team that prefers the run. No wonder, because with Bijan Robinson they have probably the best running back rookie in their own ranks at the moment. Robinson scored the two touchdowns in his NFL debut season with short screen passes. His variability and explosiveness is very good for the ATL offense. Along with superstar McCaffrey, Robinson has marked the most 10+ yard rushing gains among running backs.

With his own average of over five rushing yards per carry, as well as considering Washington’s weak run defense, which also allows nearly five yards per rush and ranks 26th in the league, odds on a touchdown from youngster Bijan Robinson should definitely be in mind between the Falcons and the Commanders.

The defense is also doing a very solid job so far. Through the air, the Falcons are only at 954 yards surrendered (8th in NFL rankings). The 19.2 counter points per game also equals a top ten value and in the important third down defense there are currently only four teams that are even better. On a positive note, the O-line did a good job protecting quarterback Ridder for the first time this season in the previous week’s 21-19 win over the Texans. If they can do that again, we expect a home win for the Falcons, who have won all three of their previous home games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Projected Atlanta Falcons lineup:
No available information.

Washington Commanders – statistics & current form

With a 20:16 win against the Arizona Cardinals as well as a spectacular 35:33 win against the Broncos, the season started quite outstanding for the Washington Commanders. After five days of play, however, the franchise from DC still has a negative record. The reason for this are three defeats in a row, in which especially the serious defensive weaknesses came to light and shocked the supporters.

In three consecutive games, the three-time Super Bowl winner has now conceded over 30 points. It was 37 against the Bills, 34 against the Eagles, and as many as 40 the previous week against the anything but offensively potent Chicago Bears! With over 12 yards per pass attempt, the pass defense is a major weakness. The pass rush works much better with leader Montez Sweat, who will certainly be aiming for a sack or two again on Sunday. The 27-year-old is certainly one of the best defensive ends in the league right now.

Howell under pressure = mistake-prone

In addition to the recent weak defense, however, there are problems on the offensive side as well. Statistically, Washington’s offense is currently just slightly better than that of their upcoming opponents, but we are still far from predicting a win for the Falcons against the Commanders. This assessment is again primarily due to Sam Howell not making the right decisions in many cases.

The young quarterback of the Commanders, who somewhat surprisingly slips into the starter role, already stands at six (!) interceptions. The sad low point was his poor performance in the loss to the Buffalo Bills, when he threw four interceptions and ended up with less than 200 passing yards. He also had 29 sacks in his first five games. Against Atlanta’s decent pass rush, Howell will once again be forced to make quick decisions. Because that could go south once again, we see far more value between the Falcons and Commanders in the odds on the “Dirty Birds.”

Predicted Washington Commanders lineup:
No information available.

Atlanta Falcons – Washington Commanders head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The Commanders lead the “All Time” series with 17 wins, ten losses and one tie. Because both teams are based in the NFC, duels also occur regularly. This is the third consecutive year the teams have faced each other, but the first time in the Ridder vs. Howell QB constellation. So the fact that Washington won the most recent two meetings in 2021 and 2022 (19-13, 34-30) has no major bearing on the outcome of Sunday’s game in our eyes.

Atlanta Falcons – Washington Commanders Tip

In the head-to-head paragraph, we touched on Washington’s recent two wins over Atlanta. Incidentally, both matchups featured a certain Taylor Heinicke on the field for DC. However, the quarterback moved to the Falcons in the summer and is currently backup to Desmond Ridder. Still, Heinicke knows his former team and coaching staff very well, of course, so it’s possible some inside information will align with his own playbook.

Regardless, we see Atlanta as the favorites in front of their home crowd. The Dirty Birds have won all three of their home games this season. The running game with Robinson and Allgeier is very good and ensures that the still young quarterback Desmond Ridder has to make few risky decisions. This good structure in the offense combined with a top defense makes the Falcons, who started with a positive 3-2 record, the favorite. This status can also be seen in the Falcons vs. Commanders betting odds.

The Commanders have also allowed 29 sacks already this season, so expect Sam Howell to be brought down successfully once again. The weak pass defense as well as the negative trend after three losses in a row ultimately cause us to tip the Falcons to win at home against the Commanders. At the top, a 1.72 is offered, which we play with seven units.