Do the defending champions bow out early?

Sometimes the fixture list in Europe’s top leagues has a treat or two in store. While many amateur footballers or fans would do anything to enter the venerable Old Trafford as a player for once, Crystal Palace’s professionals now have the pleasure of playing a guest match at the English record champions’ handsome home ground twice within a few days.

On Tuesday, the Eagles will play at the Theatre of Dreams in the course of the League Cup, followed by the Premier League away match in Manchester next Saturday. In both cases, the team of veteran coach Roy Hodgson is naturally regarded as underdogs. This is also proven by the odds before the first match between Manchester United and Crystal Palace, which are very one-sided on the three-way market.

It’s possible that the Red Devils are a little too heavily favoured, as the world-class club have not really covered themselves in glory so far this season. At least they were able to celebrate a three-game win at the weekend after three consecutive defeats.

However, with a lack of quality in the squad at the moment and the second of three consecutive English weeks on the horizon, betting on the visitors from London ahead of Manchester United’s game against Crystal Palace doesn’t seem so far-fetched.

Manchester United – Statistics & current form

The people in charge at Manchester United cannot be really satisfied with the way the season has gone so far. After six games, the Red Devils have only nine points on their account, half as many as leaders Manchester City, for example. In total, they have three wins, but also three defeats. Ninth place, also five points behind the top four, is the dismal reality.

At least they managed a small liberation at the weekend. However, only in terms of results. In a narrow 1-0 win at Burnley, coach Erik ten Hag’s team once again failed to play the stars from the sky and ultimately only benefited from a top-class individual action by Bruno Fernandes, who bagged the first win after three defeats in a row and thus prevented the next setback.

Manchester United currently mediocre at best

A look at the negative goal ratio, however, underlines that there is still a lot of room for improvement in terms of performances. The only seven goals scored correspond to by far the weakest value in the upper half of the table. The ten goals conceded are only undercut by five other clubs. In four of the six matches played, keeper Onana and Co. conceded at least two goals. In the CL opener in Munich, the new signing from Inter Milan even had to make four (!) saves.

To make matters worse, the personnel situation is not the best at the moment either. The two difference players Sancho and Antony are suspended until further notice, king transfer Mason Mount is struggling with an injury and the Dutch coach is also forced to improvise in the defence due to various absences. In the aforementioned success at Burnley, the two substitutes Evans and Lindelöf formed the centre-back pairing, and the only 20-year-old Hannibal from the club’s own U23s was allowed to play through on the ten.

These are all aspects that suggest that the English record champions are currently a long way from their top form and may have to pay the price in the EFL Cup. As defending champions, the Red Devils certainly have their work cut out for them in the “Mickey Mouse” Cup, but we wouldn’t predict a home win in the Manchester United vs Crystal Palace clash on Tuesday night.

Predicted Manchester United line-up:
Bayindir; Dalot, Lindelof, Evans, Reguilon; McTominay, Amrabat, Eriksen; Pellistri, Martial, Garnacho

Crystal Palace – Statistics & Current form

In the Premier League standings, Crystal Palace currently have just one point less than their upcoming opponents. Unlike the fans of Manchester United, the supporters of the “Crystal Palace” should be quite happy with this result. Especially in view of the fact that only the games at Aston Villa (1:3) and at home against Arsenal (0:1) have been lost so far.

In the aforementioned defeat in Birmingham against AVFC, the Eagles even led until the 86th minute before a total blackout turned the match around. Against the Gunners, it was only a penalty that resulted in the only goal conceded on the day. Based on these results, we can interpret with a clear conscience that the long-time first division team under the experienced coach Roy Hodgson is extremely difficult to defeat. Consequently, it is the odds on the double chance X2 in the clash between Manchester City and Crystal Palace that bring more value.

Crystal Palace also want to make a splash in the cup

We see the fact that the Londoners have not necessarily emerged as a cup team in the past as somewhat more problematic. In 2021/22 they reached the semi-finals of the FA Cup, but especially in the EFL Cup not much has happened in recent years. 2011/12 was the last time they reached the final round. Since then, eleven successive editions have ended in the fourth round. In 2022/23, they failed to reach the opening hurdle of Newcastle United, but only on penalties.

Given that the Eagles are unlikely to have anything to do with the fight to stay in the Premier League this season and will instead have a relatively carefree season, the national cup competitions could become more important again.

Moreover, with only seven goals conceded, the defence is one of the best the English top flight has to offer at the moment, so we think it is very realistic to predict a low-scoring first half or at least a relatively uneventful first half in the Manchester United v Crystal Palace match.

Predicted line-up of Crystal Palace:
Henderson; Clyne, Richards, Holding, Mitchell; Riedewald, Hughes; Rak-Sakyi, Eze, Schlupp; Mateta

Manchester United – Crystal Palace Direct comparison / H2H Ranking

The head-to-head between these two clubs speaks a very clear language in favour of United. In 47 meetings in the top flight as well as in the two cup competitions (FA Cup, EFL Cup), there have been a total of 36 victories for the Red Devils, who have only lost out once in eleven cup encounters to date.

In 2011/12, the Eagles won the League Cup quarter-final 2-1 after extra time at Old Trafford. In the Premier League, Manchester United have only won two of their last five home games against the Londoners (2-1-2). So the potential for a surprise is definitely there.

Manchester United – Crystal Palace Tip

Tuesday night and Saturday afternoon will see Manchester United take on Crystal Palace in two different competitions. In both cases, the English record champions enjoy home right, likewise both times the ten Hag eleven is seen with advantages. Anything other than two relatively commanding home victories would be a surprise. Would it?

In our eyes, the starting position is not quite so clear-cut, after all, there is currently only one point between the teams in the PL table. The home side have already lost three times in the league and have conceded a whopping ten goals. The Eagles, meanwhile, have only lost two games and have one of the best defences in England. The one-sided betting odds in the Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace clash are therefore not entirely understandable.

Because the supposed favourites are without several important players, have won only one of their last four competitive matches and are also in their second English week in a row, we deliberately refrain from betting in the direction of the hosts and see the more appealing value between Manchester United and Crystal Palace in the double chance X2 bet.