Will it be the fourth 1:1 in a row for Eintracht?
The German teams got off to a perfect start in the Europa & Conference League. All three Bundesliga teams won their matches on Thursday evening. So did Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg. While the Hessians once again did not cover themselves with glory in their home match against Aberdeen, the Breisgauers showed a mature performance in the witch’s cauldron of Piraeus, which was rewarded with a 3:2 statement win.
In the fifth Bundesliga matchday, the two German European Cup representatives face each other in a direct duel. Although the home side from the Main metropolis are favourites, betting on a home win between Frankfurt and Freiburg carries a certain risk, because despite two defeats in their most recent encounters, Christian Streich’s team should not be underestimated.
It will also be exciting to see who has coped better with the first real English week of the season and the strain of the double burden. Because the Sport-Club was a guest in Greece and the preparation and regeneration time for the final Bundesliga match of Matchday 5 on Sunday evening is therefore even shorter in comparison to the SGE, it is certainly understandable that the team of coach Dino Toppmöller is given the better chances on paper to win the match. However, there are numerous other factors to consider when making a suitable Frankfurt vs Freiburg prediction.
Frankfurt – statistics & current form
What do Michael Skibbe, Armin Veh and Dino Toppmöller have in common? All three of these coaches remained unbeaten in their first four Bundesliga games with Eintracht Frankfurt. The new Eintracht coach would love to jump on another bandwagon, as both Skibbe in 2009 and Armin Veh in 2012 did not concede their first defeat on the SGE bench until matchday seven.
If we believe the odds of the bookmakers with a German licence in the match between Frankfurt and Freiburg, the aforementioned unbeaten streak should continue at least on the coming Sunday. The Hessians are being treated as favourites against the Breisgauers, which is partly due to the fact that since Eintracht’s first promotion in 1993, the only time the Eagle Bearers have picked up more points in the Bundesliga than against SC Freiburg was against Werder Bremen.
Will it be the fourth Eintracht draw in a row?
If we base our assessment on the impressions of the season so far, however, it has to be said that the SGE has not yet been able to convince. The only success in the first four matchdays came against the still winless Darmstadt team. This was followed by three point-splits in a row, in which only one own goal was scored. In two out of three cases, a late goal was needed to make up for a deficit.
Since the attack continues to fall short of their own expectations after the prominent departures in the summer and the black-and-red-whites struggled to find creative solutions from the game even against Scottish underdog Aberdeen on Thursday evening, we deliberately refrain from making a prediction on a home win between Frankfurt and Freiburg.
Various statistics that could swing the pendulum in the direction of the Hessians do not change anything. The 2022 Europa League winners have not lost at home for twelve league games. In total, Eintracht have not lost seven league games in a row. However, four of these seven matches ended in a draw. For the upcoming clash early on Sunday evening, we once again see an attractive X as a possibility.
Predicted Frankfurt line-up:
Eintracht Frankfurt (Expected line-up) 3-4-2-1
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
With two wins at TSG Hoffenheim as well as at home against Werder Bremen, SC Freiburg started the new season promisingly. On the last two matchdays, however, the Breisgau side suffered heavy defeats. In the 0:5 loss in Stuttgart and the 2:4 loss at home against Borussia Dortmund, the defence around international Matthias Ginter showed unusual weaknesses.
However, to cite these nine goals conceded in 180 minutes as an exclusive argument to justify Eintracht’s role as favourites on Sunday would be presumptuous. Against the in-form VfB Stuttgart, Freiburg missed the first half, against BVB, a sending-off against Höfler turned the game around. At least nothing seems to have stuck, because on Thursday evening, Streich’s eleven landed a 3:2 victory at Olympiakos Piraeus, which will certainly give the team back some confidence and security.
Freiburg need to work on efficiency
Apart from that, it should not be neglected that no other Bundesliga team has so far clearly undercut its “xG (expected goals)” like Sport-Club. Maxi Eggestein and Co. are creating many good chances, but so far they have not been able to exploit them with the necessary effectiveness. This is also supported by the fact that only VfL Wolfsburg have missed more top-class chances (12) than SCF (10) so far this season.
To go into the interpretation and conclusion, it should be said that Freiburg have sold themselves short so far, especially with the away win in Sinsheim on the first matchday, but they were able to underline their own strength. The fact that Eintracht is now an opponent who still has problems with their offensive play could play into the cards of Streich’s protégés.
In any case, we believe that fatigue after Thursday’s game will not be a relevant factor and instead expect a highly motivated and self-confident Schwarzwald eleven, which we definitely believe will win a point at Deutsche Bank Park. At Oddset, which has returned to the betting market, the double chance X2 can be played at odds of 1.73.
Predicted line-up of Freiburg:
SC Freiburg (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1
Frankfurt – Freiburg Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
There have been a total of 38 Bundesliga matches between Frankfurt and Freiburg. With 16 wins, 14 losses and eight draws, Eintracht leads the direct comparison. Eleven of the aforementioned 16 victories have been in front of a home crowd.
However, of the ten most recent home matches against the SCF, only five were victorious. Curiously, the last six games in Frankfurt’s Stadtwald alternated between wins and draws. After a three-goal win for the Hessians in 2022/23, a draw would now be the order of the day again – in accordance with the law of the series.
Frankfurt – Freiburg Tip
The fifth matchday in the Bundesliga will be concluded late on Sunday afternoon with the match between Frankfurt and Freiburg. Betting odds of 2.10 at the top of the table on a home win elevate Eintracht to the role of favourites, a role that coach Dino Toppmöller’s team has struggled with so far this season. In the league and the Conference League, the black and red team did not score more than two goals in any of the seven matches. Often, they have only managed one goal of their own.
Although the SGE currently has the best defence in the league, the Hessen’s starting programme was not the hardest either. This weekend, the Breisgauer, who travel to the Main metropolis with the recommendation of an away win from Piraeus and want to make amends for the two league defeats, are of a different calibre.
In the first four matchdays, the fewest goals were scored in matches involving the SGE. Three goals were the highest of the feelings so far. That should be the case again this time, especially as both teams have so far failed to score in the first 30 minutes of a match and will probably need some time to get into the game after Thursday’s intense European Cup matches.
We therefore expect a low-scoring first half and would equally not be surprised if the score is shared after 90 minutes.
