Does Toppmöller concede his first defeat in the old home?
It’s been over 20 years since Dino Toppmöller stood on the pitch for VfL Bochum. In the 2001/02 season, the tall attacker made twelve appearances for VfL in the 2nd division and eventually also managed promotion to the top flight. On Saturday, the son of Klaus Toppmöller, who also enjoyed a very successful time in Bochum, returns to his old home – as the still unbeaten Bundesliga coach of Eintracht Frankfurt.
However, the long-time assistant to Julian Nagelsmann will not yet be one hundred percent satisfied with his team’s haul. They have five points and have not scored more than one goal in any of their matches. After the departure of Randal Kolo Muani on Deadline Day to Paris, there is again the threat of an offensive lull on Saturday. It may therefore be a good approach to make a prediction on relatively few goals in the match between Bochum and Frankfurt.
In terms of a suitable Bochum vs. Frankfurt tip on the outcome of the match, however, many factors must be taken into account. On the one hand, the proven home strength of the Ruhrpottler, which recently already Borussia Dortmund got to feel. On the other hand, the ongoing winless streak of Eintracht in foreign Bundesliga stadiums. A clear favorite is therefore not discernible, so that a bet on the three-way market finds no place in the top tip table above.
Bochum – statistics & current form
After three matchdays, VfL Bochum is still waiting for its first three-pointer of the new season. However, moping would not suit the Malocher mentality of the blue and white, especially since the performances leave the coaching staff around head coach Thomas Letsch quite positive. With the exception of the 5-0 defeat at VfB Stuttgart on the first matchday, Bochum not only scored points at home against Dortmund (1-1) and before the international break in Augsburg (2-2), but also managed to convince over long stretches.
We are therefore already committed and dare between Bochum and Frankfurt the prediction that if the home side shows a similar performance as recently, at least a point win for the relegation candidate from the Ruhr will jump out. For the double chance 1X beckons a 1.60 at Interwetten.
Stand stable at the back and hope for Asano and standards up front
Positive in this context is of course the home strength. In the preseason, the blue and white occupied the remarkable ninth place in the home table. 26 of the total of 35 points were scored at home. Especially under Thomas Letsch, the Bochum side was difficult to beat at the Ruhrstadion. Five defeats in the 14 BL home games with the former Austria Wien coach support this thesis and also serve as a further argument for the double chance 1X.
Alternatively, one can think about betting on a rather tough soccer game with few goals. Only if VfL delivers a similarly concentrated defensive performance at home as it did in the 1:1 in the first home game against BVB, will the chance of staying in the Bundesliga increase. If things get wild and uncontrolled, it is usually the qualitatively inferior team, in many cases VfL, that loses out.
Incidentally, the main focus on Saturday evening will once again be on Takuma Asano, who scored for Japan against Germany during the international break and also added a double to the scorers’ list in the last Bundesliga match against Augsburg. In the last meeting with Eintracht to date, the speedy winger also scored in a 1-1 draw. A good omen for the upcoming match?
Predicted lineup of Bochum:
VfL Bochum (Expected lineup) 3-5-2
Frankfurt – statistics & current form
At this point, Dino Toppmöller has already made history in a way. As the first Eintracht coach since Armin Veh in 2011, the Bundesliga newcomer remained unbeaten in his first six competitive games. However, what initially reads as very pleasing has to be put into perspective on closer inspection. Two of the six matches in question were against Bulgarian underdog Levski Sofia, and another was in the DFB Cup against fourth-division team Lok Leipzig. In addition, there have only been three victories in total to date.
In the Bundesliga, the 2022 Europa League triumphants have so far fallen short of their own expectations in terms of performance. Both in the away match against Mainz 05 and at home against 1. FC Köln, a last-minute goal was needed to at least take home a point. The 1-0 win in the opener against Darmstadt 98 also fell into the “lackluster” category.
Frankfurt continues to lack offensive power
Mainly responsible for the disappointing performances, which – strictly speaking – did not even stop at the two playoff games in the Conference League, is the lack of penetrating power in the offense. Without their two most important offensive players from the preseason, Randal Kolo Muani and Jesper Lindström, there is a lack of creativity, determination and individual quality.
Not least because of this, the odds on sub-par goals in the duel Bochum vs Frankfurt are extremely interesting. This is also supported by the fact that in no Eintracht match so far more than two goals have been scored, while the defense, with a total of three goals conceded in six competitive matches, is already working very well.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that the SGE has now been waiting for a win in twelve (!) away games in the Bundesliga and, together with FC Augsburg, is the only team that has not yet managed to land a three-goal win away from home in the calendar year 2023. Depending on how the game goes, the Eagle Bearers would probably sign a draw at the Ruhrstadion, especially since it would allow them to remain unbeaten in the first four Bundesliga games of a new season for the first time since 2020/21 and continue their season-long streak of then seven games in a row without defeat.
Predicted Frankfurt lineup:
Eintracht Frankfurt (Expected lineup) 3-4-2-1
Bochum – Frankfurt Direct comparison / H2H balance
This is the 65th time the teams have faced each other in the Bundesliga on Saturday night. VfL Bochum has celebrated 25 victories, 20 of them in front of a home crowd (eight draws, four defeats). Against no other club does the VfL thus come to more victories in the Oberhaus, also the 20 clean sheets mean an internal best value against the SGE.
In the past two seasons, the Hessians also had a hard time in the Ruhr. In 2022/23, the VfL won 3-0 at home, and a year earlier, 2-0. Eintracht has only won one of the four most recent direct Bundesliga encounters. More than three goals were not scored in any of those matches.
Bochum – Frankfurt tip
Three points and three places currently separate Eintracht Frankfurt (10th) from VfL Bochum (13th). Considering the performances shown, however, the blue-and-whites have actually been somewhat more convincing so far, although this has not yet been reflected in the results. However, the 1-1 draw at home against BVB in particular showed that coach Thomas Letsch’s team puts in an immense effort and is therefore uncomfortable for all opponents to play against.
This grip coupled with good standards, a solid switching game and the unorthodox/simplistic style of play ensure a certain aura, especially at home. Under Letsch, there have only been five defeats in 14 BL home games. Consequently, we are not betting on a win for the visitors between Bochum and Frankfurt.
Instead, we see a more appealing value in the betting odds on sub-par goals in the match between Bochum and Frankfurt. The reasons for this are obvious. With Kolo Muani and Lindström, the SGE has lost a lot of individual quality as well as goal threat up front, Bochum generally has a hard time creating scoring chances out of the game. Probably also against the best defense in the Bundesliga so far from the Main metropolis.
We therefore combine the Under 1.5 (1st HZ) with the Under 3.5 after 90 minutes and get an attractive 1.75 in the top at Betano, which we play with six units.
