Will Spain set off another fireworks display?

The Women’s World Cup 2023 is slowly entering a hot phase. Eight teams are still in the running for the coveted World Cup trophy and it is already clear that there will definitely be a new world champion after two consecutive title wins for the Americans. Among others, the Spanish team, which won its round of 16 match in a very confident manner and is now also listed as the favourite in the quarter-finals, has put itself in a good position to do so.

Before the first of the four quarter-final matches between Spain and Holland, the tip on “La Furia Roja” is quoted lower. On the three-way market, a peak of 1.93 is offered for Jorge Vilda’s team to succeed in regulation time. Unlike the sixth-placed team in the world rankings, however, the upcoming opponents from Central Europe have so far remained without defeat in the entire tournament.

Orangely, Oranje benefited from a serious mistake by the South African goalkeeper in the last 16, but all in all, the Dutch women can be absolutely satisfied with the four matches they have played so far. Because the 2017 European champions have scored in all their matches but have hardly been challenged defensively, we think a prediction of three or more goals after 90 minutes in the Spain v Holland clash is far more realistic than the bookmakers currently do.

Spain – Statistics & current form

Spectacle can the Spanish women’s national team! In the four games so far in this tournament, 18 goals have already been scored with the participation of the Spanish women, i.e. an average of more than four goals per match. In three out of four cases, a bet on the over 3.5 would even have paid off. There have never been fewer than three goals in any of Vilda’s matches.

Although this statistical conspicuousness can of course be explained by the fact that the Iberians were faced with glaring underdogs in Costa Rica or Zambia, it became clear in the last 16 at the latest that Jenni Hermoso and Co. are capable of generating a great deal of offensive power. Against the previously unbeaten and scoreless Swiss, the World Cup co-favourites from the south of Europe already led 4:1 at half-time and finally had the upper hand with 5:1.

Will the Spaniards start like fire again?

High-scoring first periods are also the order of the day, with 13 of the aforementioned 18 goals in the first four Spanish games coming in the first 45 minutes. A bet on two or more goals before the break would always have proved correct, which is why we are again taking a closer look at the odds on the over 1.5 (1st half) for Thursday’s quarter-final between Spain and Holland.

Despite the justified praise for the technically very adept and short-passing style of play, it should not be forgotten that the sixth-ranked team in the world has revealed an extreme susceptibility to counterattacks in many cases. The 4-0 defeat in the last group match against Japan is a good example of this, as they repeatedly took advantage of slight ball losses in the Spanish opening and exposed their deficits with fast players.

In fact, we would not necessarily bet on the “Furia Roja”, who have reached the quarter-finals of a World Cup for the first time, to go without conceding a goal on Thursday night either. Goals from both teams are just as likely as a match with at least three goals.

Predicted line-up of Spain:

Spain (Official line-up) 4-1-2-3

Holland – Statistics & current form

The Dutch side have marched through this tournament in Australia/New Zealand without a care in the world so far. The 1-0 opening win against Portugal paved the way to the last 16 early on. A 1-1 draw against the USA and a 7-0 win over outsiders Vietnam were enough to secure first place in the group and the supposedly easier draw in the first knockout match.

Despite an early lead, the match against South Africa developed into an up-and-down affair. The African champions had several chances to equalise, but the underdogs failed time and again due to their own nerves. Even after the reassuring 2-0 lead, the Oranje did not get the desired calmness into the match, but managed to save the advantage over time and thus perfect their entry into the last eight for the second time in a row at their third World Cup participation. Watch out: In the last edition in 2019, the “Leuwinnen” famously even made it to the final.

The “to-nil” win against South Africa is deceptive

But the fact that they allowed 14 shots against an inferior opponent in terms of quality and helped their opponents to an Expected Goal value of 1.01 also proves, however, that the defence was not always fully up to scratch. Against the much stronger Southern Europeans, the lack of concentration here and there in their work against the ball could be their undoing. It is not without reason that Spain is favoured against Holland according to the odds.

However, since we also believe that the team of coach Andries Jonker, whom German fans still know from his time as Louis van Gaal’s co-coach at FC Bayern or in his head coaching role at VfL Wolfsburg, has a lot going for it and the three-way odds are even too one-sided in our eyes, we will refrain from predicting the winner in this first Spain vs. Holland quarter-final.

Predicted line-up of Holland:

Netherlands (Official line-up) 3-5-2

Spain – Netherlands Direct comparison / H2H Balance

For the eleventh time in total, the two women’s national teams from Spain and the Netherlands will face each other on Friday night. This is the first time the teams will meet at a World Cup finals. Since the previous matches were only played as friendlies or in the European Championship qualifiers, the respective results should be treated with caution. Nevertheless, Spain leads the direct comparison with five victories. Three draws and two Dutch victories round off the balance.

Spain – Holland tip

The density of performance at this Women’s World Cup is very close. Almost all of the round of 16 matches have been close. We expect the same in the quarter-finals. Clear favourites are the exception rather than the rule. However, we think it would be wrong to immediately conclude from this assessment that there is a tendency for few goals to be scored.

Especially in the first quarter-final between Spain and Holland, the betting odds on a match with three or more goals in regulation time bring an extremely interesting value. All four of the Iberians’ tournament matches have ended in high-scoring games, and the “Leuwinnen” have also shown that they have offensive quality, always scoring at least one goal in their four matches.

We are therefore holding back on betting on the outcome of the match, but would tend to lean towards Spain as semi-finalists. Our preferred idea, however, is to bet on the over 2.5 between Spain and Holland. Very attractive odds of 2.15 are offered here, which we play with six units.