Will TSG cut their teeth on the Union defence?

On paper, TSG Hoffenheim are thought to have very good chances of avoiding relegation from the Bundesliga this season. At Bet-at-Home, for example, odds of 10.00 are currently being offered on the Kraichgauer having to go down to the second division.

Apart from that, TSG have a thankless task ahead of them with the Eisernen from Köpenick at the weekend. On the last matchday, Matarazzo’s eleven will face the coach’s former club and direct rivals VfB Stuttgart.

The Sinsheimers would therefore be well advised to close the bag this weekend and remove any remaining doubt. If the home win between Hoffenheim and Union Berlin proves to be the case, everything points to the home side being rescued early on.

Of course, the Eisernen should not be neglected at this point, because the cult club from the capital also has a lot at stake in this match. With a current three-point lead over SC Freiburg – depending on Friday night’s result between Sport-Club and Wolfsburg – just a point could be enough to qualify for the Champions League for the first time in the club’s history.

As the Fischer team has been very difficult to beat throughout the season and also has a very good record against TSG in the top flight, the prediction of a good result in favour of the visitors is even close ahead of the Hoffenheim vs. Union Berlin clash.

Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form

The fans of TSG Hoffenheim are currently experiencing a rollercoaster ride for their team. Time and again in the recent past, one had the feeling that the Kraichgauer might have taken the decisive step out of the bottom of the table, before the next setback occurred immediately afterwards.

A fortnight ago, for example, TSG won 3:1 against Eintracht Frankfurt, only to lose again the previous week at VfL Wolfsburg. Overall, the Sinsheim side have just one win from their past five games, although coach Pellegrino Matarazzo’s side must also be given credit for the fact that the opposition has been rather complicated, with RB Leipzig, FC Bayern or, indeed, the Wölfen.

Is TSG overrated by the bookmakers?

This, in turn, will not change on Saturday afternoon when razor-thin odds are offered on a home win between Hoffenheim and Union Berlin. The minimal role as favourites is primarily based on the recent acceptable results in their own stadium.

Nine points have been earned in the last four games in front of a home crowd. Nevertheless, only FC Schalke 04 has been behind more minutes at home than the former upstart from the south of the country throughout the entire season. Generally speaking, 20 points from 16 home games is a poor return, which is only undercut by two other clubs.

Because the bottom line is that the Blue and Whites are playing the second-worst Bundesliga season in their club’s history, picking up only a disappointing 13 points in 15 matches in the entire second half of the season (17th place in the standings for the second half of the season) and also failing to win any of their five most recent direct duels against the Eisern, we recommend staying away from the odds on a home win between Hoffenheim and Union Berlin.

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Last matches played by Hoffenheim:

Bundesliga

• 13/05/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 2 – 1 Hoffenheim
• 06/05/2023 – Hoffenheim 3 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
• 29/04/2023 – RB Leipzig 1 – 0 Hoffenheim
• 22/04/2023 – Hoffenheim 1 – 3 1. FC Köln
• 15/04/2023 – Bayern Munich 1 – 1 Hoffenheim

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

Union Berlin are just a small step away from the biggest triumph in the club’s history. Considering their current three-point lead over fifth-placed Freiburg, the Eisernen are definitely in pole position in the race for the coveted Champions League ticket. Should SC Freiburg fail to win against Wolfsburg on Friday evening, a simple point would be enough for Union to secure fourth place on Saturday.

It is quite obvious that the team of coach Urs Fischer can definitely be trusted with this draw in Sinsheim and, strictly speaking, in the duel Hoffenheim vs. Union Berlin, even the forecast for the away win brings value in view of the odds on the three-way market. Only FC Bayern München have conceded fewer defeats than the capital club so far this season. Only in seven cases did Union leave the pitch as losers.

Union has the best defence of the second half of the season

In recent weeks, this year’s Europa League participant has once again impressed with great stability and consistency. Only two of the last ten Bundesliga games were lost. Just four goals were conceded in the last five games at national level. In general, the only twelve goals conceded in 15 second-round matches is the best figure of all 18 Bundesliga teams. The approach of aiming for a maximum of three or four goals in the course of a match therefore also seems sensible.

Finally, it should be mentioned that the Eisernen have been able to rely more on the qualities of Sheraldo Becker since last weekend. After a long dry spell, the Dutchman got rid of his frustration in the 4:2 win against SC Freiburg, scoring two goals himself and setting up two others. The quick-as-an-arrow attacker thus became the first Union player in Bundesliga history to score four goals in a match. With 18 scorer points, he is also statistically the most important offensive player for the Köpenickers.

Last matches of Union Berlin:

Bundesliga

• 13/05/2023 – Union Berlin 4 – 2 SC Freiburg
• 06/05/2023 – Augsburg 1 – 0 Union Berlin
• 29/04/2023 – Union Berlin 0 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
• 24/04/2023 – Gladbach 0 – 1 Union Berlin
• 16/04/2023 – Union Berlin 1 – 1 VfL Bochum

Hoffenheim – Union Berlin Direct comparison / H2H balance

Seven Bundesliga matches have been played between Hoffenheim and Union Berlin to date. Two victories for TSG are offset by two draws and three defeats. The Eisernen have also not lost any of the past five direct duels and, after the 3:1 victory in the first leg, could now celebrate the season double, victory in the first and second legs, against the Sinsheimers for the first time.

It is also worth mentioning that between Hoffenheim and Union Berlin, the prediction of over 4.5 goals would not have paid off in any of the seven meetings mentioned. We therefore do not necessarily expect a goal festival on Saturday either.

Hoffenheim – Union Berlin Tip

There is a lot at stake for both TSG Hoffenheim and Union Berlin in the direct duel on Saturday afternoon. The Kraichgauer want to take a decisive step towards staying in the relegation zone, while Union have their sights set on the Champions League. Consequently, both teams have nothing to give away in the 33rd matchday of the Bundesliga.

Although Sinsheim have won three of their last four home games and Union have recently been a little weaker away from home, we see the advantage more in the favour of the visitors from Köpenick. Fischer’s team looks more solid and stable. In addition, the Eisernen have only lost seven games all season. Because there are high betting odds on the capitals in the duel Hoffenheim vs. Union Berlin, we recommend betting on the fourth-placed team in the table.

Particularly risk-averse bettors could, for example, bet that the cult club from Berlin will win the match and that a maximum of three goals will be scored. To hedge against any eventualities, we finally decided to bet between Hoffenheim and Union Berlin that the Köpenicker will not lose and that there will be a maximum of four goals in the 90 minutes. For the combination of X2 & Under 4.5, an acceptable 1.72 can be dusted off at Betano.