Pep vs. Tuchel – whose plan will work in the first leg?
It is now almost eight years since Thomas Tuchel and Pep Guardiola met in Munich’s posh Schumann’s restaurant for an intensive tactics discussion. With salt shakers or beer mats moving across the table, the two football fanatics philosophised wildly about their ideas.
Now, next Tuesday evening, it comes to the direct duel of the coaching geniuses. Of course, it is far from being a premiere, but it will be the first time in the current constellation. Pep as City coach, Tuchel freshly in charge of FC Bayern.
Before the first leg between Manchester City and Bayern, the bet on the home victory of the Englishmen is offered with the significantly lower odds on the three-way market. The reasons for this are obvious and seem quite obvious.
On the one hand, the Citizens are obviously in better shape at the moment. On the other hand, the Munich team seems anything but stable after the DFB Cup exit and the less than glamorous away win in Freiburg. A bit of uncertainty about their own performance is definitely not to be dismissed by the German record champions.
But since we don’t want to take a purely statistical and form-based approach and instead approach the Manchester City vs Bayern prediction with an analytical approach, there are undoubtedly other interesting and helpful aspects that will be taken into account.
One of the most important questions will be: How can the Munich team stop Erling Haaland? Some experience has already been gained from his time in Dortmund. In a total of seven games that the Norwegian striker machine played against the FCB, Haaland scored five goals, but lost all seven encounters with BVB. In the jersey of the Sky Blues, however, the likelihood of success against the German champions is much higher.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
Unquestionably, Manchester City have been one of the best, most dominant and successful clubs in European football over the last decade. However, the big coup in the form of Champions League success has so far eluded them. The only final appearance came in 2021, when the title game was narrowly lost to Thomas Tuchel and his Chelsea FC. To this day, Pep Guardiola still blames himself and considers himself partly to blame for the defeat.
This is one of the reasons why the two matches in the CL quarter-finals against the German coach are so important for the Catalan tactician. Incidentally, there have been a total of three duels between Guardiola and Tuchel in cup competitions so far. The only triumph came in 2016 in the DFB Cup final after a penalty shootout. In none of the three aforementioned encounters did the Pep team score a goal in regulation time.
Manchester City with 21 goals in last 360 minutes of play
Looking ahead to the upcoming first leg at home, however, the chances are pretty good that this pitiful drought will come to an end. The Citizens will go into this match with the recommendation of eight wins in a row in the competition. The (still) reigning champions from England have not lost for twelve competitive matches.
This run of success included a 7-0 win over RB Leipzig and a 4-1 victory over Liverpool. 21 goals scored in the last four matches is an outstanding top score, which sometimes has to be used as an argument to justify the lower odds on the home win between Manchester City and Bayern.
The Citizens are on nine wins from nine home games in 2023
Also worth highlighting is the Sky Blues’ brutal home form, winning 12 of their 14 Premier League matches in front of their own fans. The current Champions League season has also seen four wins in four attempts with 17 goals scored. However, it is also clear that the respect for the opponent on Tuesday evening will be different and FC Bayern, as a big-calibre team, should not necessarily be put on the same level as the last opponents.
That’s exactly why we don’t expect to see another goal-filled spectacle. There will be no big risks on either side. Too much is at stake. The respect for each other is too pronounced. Despite the home side’s sensational attacking statistics and the fact that Erling Haaland, who has already scored ten goals in six CL matches in 2022/23, seems to be back in top form after his injury lay-off, we therefore prefer a prediction of a maximum of three goals in the course of the match before the first leg between Manchester City and Bayern.
Last games of Manchester City:
Premier League
08/04/2023 – Southampton 1 – 4 Manchester City
01/04/2023 – Manchester City 4 – 1 Liverpool FC
FA Cup
19/03/2023 – Manchester City 6 – 0 Burnley
Champions League Final
15/03/2023 – Manchester City 7 – 0 RB Leipzig
Premier League
12/03/2023 – Crystal Palace 0 – 1 Manchester City
Bayern – Statistics & current form
F Bayern are said to have some luck of the draw in domestic as well as international competition. However, in the current top flight season, the Munich team is far from that. After the German record champions were drawn two heavyweights in the group stage, Barcelona and Inter Milan, the road to a possible final in Istanbul could hardly be more rocky and difficult.
After the impressive progress in the round of 16 against the Parisian star ensemble, another challenge awaits them in the form of Manchester City, before they would have to defeat the defending champions Real Madrid in a potential semi-final. But there is an old saying that if you want to win the trophy, you have to beat all your opponents anyway. In line with this credo, the FCB is facing this immense challenge and will have to play in the mother country of football on Tuesday.
How strong are Bayern really?
Travels to the island in the recent past, however, have mostly been associated with positive experiences for Bayern. In fact, only two of the last ten away appearances in England have been lost. These two defeats were offset by a total of six victories and two draws. Three of the most recent four such encounters have even been victorious.
With a look at the current situation, however, it is also clear that the industry leaders from Germany are far from reaching the zenith of their abilities in these important CL matches. After the glorious 4:2 victory on Tuchel’s debut against Borussia Dortmund, the FCB lost the knockout match in the DFB Pokal at home against Freiburg with 1:2 and also had more problems than desired at the weekend in the league in Breisgau with the narrow 1:0 victory.
What match plan does Tuchel have in mind?
First and foremost, there is potential for improvement offensively. Since we also assume that Thomas Tuchel, as an experienced coach, will possibly give his team a more cautious approach, we expect a rather low-scoring match. Three goals are the maximum we can imagine.
It is also conceivable that the visitors will let the Citizens have possession of the ball and go for the quick switching game themselves. The less depth and space in the box the Munich team offers, the higher the chance of a good result. Because the Bundesliga leaders are actually viewed a little too critically in our eyes at the moment due to the squabbles surrounding the club, there may also be some appealing value hidden in the Manchester City vs Bayern double chance X2 betting odds.
Last games of Bayern:
Bundesliga
08/04/2023 – SC Freiburg 0 – 1 Bayern Munich
DFB Cup
05/04/2023 – Bayern Munich 1 – 2 SC Freiburg
Bundesliga
01/04/2023 – Bayern Munich 4 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
19/03/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 1 Bayern Munich
11/03/2023 – Bayern Munich 5 – 3 Augsburg
Manchester City – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H balance
This is the seventh time the clubs have faced each other in a competitive match. All six previous meetings have taken place in the Champions League. Three times City won, three times Bayern. By the way, all previous matches took place in the group phase.
Tuesday evening will therefore be the first time that a knockout match has been played. In this context, it is perhaps worth mentioning that the Sky Blues have won all of their last ten CL home matches against German teams, scoring a total of 39 goals. The Citizens also have four consecutive home wins over Bundesliga sides in the knockout stages.
Manchester City – Bayern Tip
We could use many superlatives for the UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg between Manchester City and Bayern. But in fact it is not only a duel of players, but also one of coaches.
On the one hand, there is Thomas Tuchel, who in a way outcoached Pep in the 2021 final with Chelsea against the Citizens. On the other hand, Pep Guardiola, who has won 54% of his knockout matches in the top flight and thus has the best win rate of all coaches who have been on the sidelines for at least 30 such matches. Both coaches are regarded as tacticians, so it will be interesting to see which approaches are adopted in each case.
Generally, it is difficult to make a suitable bet on the three-way market, as we even consider the odds on the home win to be a little too low. The German record champions have proven several times that they can excel in the Champions League. Although their form is not particularly good, Thomas Müller, Joshua Kimmich and Co. should of course never be underestimated.
Consequently, our Manchester City vs. Bayern tip goes in the direction of a match at eye level. On the one hand, we predict a maximum of three goals in the course of the match at top odds of 1.55, and on the other hand, we recommend double chance X2 at 2.12 at the top. Especially the latter promises solid value.
