Does Leverkusen pass Eintracht?
Only on the first matchday of the current Bundesliga season was Bayer 04 Leverkusen ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt in the standings. But that could change on Saturday afternoon. Should a prediction of a home win pay off before the direct duel between Leverkusen and Frankfurt, the Rhinelanders would overtake the Hessians and from now on be back in the race for the international ranks.
The task definitely seems doable from the Werkself’s point of view, after all, Bayer won the last eight competitive games against Eintracht. Moreover, things have not been going well at all for the Adlerträgern at league level lately. In mid-February, Glasner’s team won its last match in the Bundesliga. At least the 2-0 home win in the cup quarter-final against Union Berlin during the week put an end to the even longer-lasting winning streak in all competitions.
Nevertheless, when looking for a suitable Leverkusen vs. Frankfurt tip, it must be taken into account that the SGE is nowhere near as strong away as it is at home.
Apart from that, this encounter in Germany’s top division has always been won by the home team in the past ten cases. Given the outstanding form of Alonso’s eleven in recent weeks, there is much to suggest that this trend will continue this weekend as part of Matchday 27.
Leverkusen – statistics & current form
Even before the start of the second half of the season, few experts would have bet that Bayer 04 Leverkusen would actually be aiming for the top third of the table. With a successful result on Saturday afternoon, they could make it into the top six of the standings. At the moment, they are only seven points behind fourth-placed Freiburg, so it seems that they are still on course for the 2023/24 Champions League group stage.
The fact that the prospects are looking pretty rosy again after a completely messed-up first half of the season is due to the impressive form of recent weeks. The Werkself have won all six of their most recent matches in all competitions. In the Bundesliga alone, the Rhinelanders have won four in a row and five in their last seven games.
Will Leverkusen extend their winning streak?
The way in which the aforementioned threes came about is also quite impressive. In the four games mentioned, Diaby, Wirtz, Frimpong and Co. scored an impressive twelve goals, always scored at least twice and were also able to beat the record champions from Munich 2-1 in front of their home crowd. Only Dortmund, Bayern and Mainz have won more matches than Bayer in the second half of the season.
Since the home record under Xabi Alonso is also very good and the Europa League quarter-finalists have won five of their last seven matches at home, we are confident that the odds on a three-goal win for the home side in Saturday’s clash between Leverkusen and Frankfurt offer decent value.
On a positive note, we would like to add that, as described in the introduction, Leverkusen have won all of their last eight (!) home games against Eintracht and have only ever won at home in the past ten Bundesliga games. Those who still want to take a different approach can possibly bet on a few goals being scored. In six of the last seven Bundesliga matches involving Bayer, the over 2.5 would have gone through, with both teams scoring in six of those matches as well.
Last games played by Leverkusen:
Bundesliga
01/04/2023 – Schalke 04 0 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
19/03/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 1 Bayern Munich
Europa League Final Stage
17/03/2023 – Ferencvaros 0 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
12/03/2023 – Werder Bremen 2 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
Europa League Final Stage
10/03/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 0 Ferencvaros
Frankfurt – Statistics & current form
Frankfurter Eintracht had to wait seven games for the liberation blow. During the week, the time had finally come. Thanks to a deserved 2-0 home win in the quarter-finals of the DFB Cup, coach Oliver Glasner’s men not only secured their ticket to the semi-finals, but also ended their seven-match winning streak in the competition.
The SGE will also be desperate to get back on track in the Bundesliga this weekend after failing to win a single match in their last five league games (three draws, two defeats). In general, the Hessians have had great problems in the second half of the season so far to build on their good first half. Ten points are on the books after nine matches in the second half of the season. The last time it was less was in 2016/17 (eight).
In terms of the standings, this dip in form recently caused the reigning Europa League champions to drop to sixth place and even lose sight of the Champions League places. If the odds on a home win in the Leverkusen vs. Frankfurt clash on Saturday afternoon prove to be true, Eintracht could even slip completely out of the international places, as Mainz 05 or VfL Wolfsburg could also pass them in the standings in a worst-case scenario.
Frankfurt struggling with away form
The difficulty of the undertaking at the BayArena is further highlighted by the fact that nothing at all has gone right for the black and red away from home in recent weeks at league level. It has now been seven consecutive away games in the Bundesliga in which the Eagles have failed to win.
Moreover, the current sixth-placed team in the league has failed to keep its clean sheet in 16 (!) consecutive league matches. Against this backdrop, a prediction of over 2.5 goals between Leverkusen and Frankfurt is obvious, especially as a corresponding bet would already have gone through in eight SGE games away from home.
In ten of the 13 Eintracht away games, both teams even scored, but interestingly, the respective teams only scored in the second half in two of the ten cases mentioned.
Last matches of Frankfurt:
DFB Cup
04/04/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 2 – 0 Union Berlin
Bundesliga
01/04/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 VfL Bochum
Friendly club matches
23/03/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 Greuther Fürth
Bundesliga
19/03/2023 – Union Berlin 2 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
Champions League Final
16/03/2023 – SSC Napoli 3 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
Leverkusen – Frankfurt Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
We have already discussed the curious direct comparison. In the last ten Bundesliga matches, the home team has always had the upper hand. The last away win came in the first half of the 2017/18 season, when the Werkself took all three points in Frankfurt’s Stadtwald. The Rhinelanders have now won eight home games in a row against Eintracht.
There should be no lack of motivation on Saturday either, as the SGE won the first leg 5:1 (!) at home. For the first time since 2007/08, the Hessians could now win the first and second legs against Bayer. However, Leverkusen have not celebrated more victories against any other club in Germany’s top division than against the eagle-bearers from the Main.
Leverkusen – Frankfurt Tip
An exciting chasing duel awaits us on Saturday afternoon at the BayArena. The seventh-placed team will meet their neighbours in the standings and have the chance to move past their direct rivals in the table for the first time since Matchday 1 with a three-point win. Looking at the form curves of both teams in the Bundesliga, such a scenario seems anything but unlikely.
The Werkself have recently won six home games in a row at league level, are generally in strong form and are also up against a real favourite opponent. Because the last eight mandatory home games against Eintracht were won and there have been exclusively home victories in this pairing lately anyway, it is quite understandable that lower betting odds are offered on the Rhinelanders between Leverkusen and Frankfurt.
This is also supported by the rather poor form of the Hessians, who reached the DFB Pokal semi-finals during the week, but have failed to win five times in a row in the Bundesliga and have also been without a treble for seven BL away games. Even though Bayer are back in Europa League action next Thursday, we are confident that Xabi Alonso’s side will prevail.
Before the match between Leverkusen and Frankfurt, we are therefore betting on a home win and are offering top odds of 1.90.
