Will the SGE end the Bundesliga drought?
With the start of the 26th matchday next Friday, the Bundesliga turns into the hot home stretch of the current season. The race for the championship is still just as open as the fight to stay in the league. In addition, the vacant places in the European competitions for the next season are at stake. This is where Eintracht Frankfurt come into play, who are desperate to get back on track after a slight dip in form.
The reigning Europa League winners open the matchday with a home game against the team that has so far conceded the most defeats away from home of all 18 teams. Unsurprisingly, all the bookmakers see a home win as the most likely betting option between Frankfurt and Bochum. And this despite the fact that the SGE, as indicated, has not won in six competitive matches.
The form curve for the guests from the Ruhr region, on the other hand, points in the opposite direction. The VfL recently celebrated two victories in a row and even moved away from the relegation places. In order to continue this positive trend, coach Thomas Letsch’s men are perhaps even relying on history, because in the long history of the Bundesliga, the Blue and Whites have not scored more victories against any other opponent than against Eintracht. That, in turn, does not change the fact that the prediction of many experts between Frankfurt and Bochum is more likely to go in the direction of the home side.
Frankfurt – statistics & current form
The last few weeks have been very disappointing for Eintracht Frankfurt. Although they were able to come to terms with their elimination in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League against Napoli, who were vastly superior in two games, the recent performance in the Bundesliga has undoubtedly left its mark and also fuelled discussions about the future of coach Oliver Glasner.
In particular, the 2-0 defeat at Union Berlin just before the international break contributed to the overall negative atmosphere, as the Austrian head coach was harshly critical of his team in the aftermath of the match. However, the fact that the successful coach’s departure was immediately brought into play can probably be attributed to a typical exaggeration in the media.
The SGE picked up 13 points from the last 5 BL home games
But it is also clear that the expectations in the banking metropolis have changed a little. At the moment, they are still in sixth place in the standings, but should the Hessians not be able to free themselves from the downward spiral in the coming matches, they could even slip out of the international places, which would be like a super-GAU in view of the now expensive and high-quality squad.
It is therefore all the more important for the SGE to start the final spurt with a three-goal win on Friday evening. Despite the fact that the Black-White-Red recently went without a win in four consecutive matches for the first time this season (0-2-2), they go into the home match against the relegation candidates from the Ruhr as clear favourites. Ahead of the match between Frankfurt and Bochum, the odds on a home win are in the range of 1.55 to 1.60, with an implied probability of over 60%.
This is not least due to the impressive home strength, which is reflected, among other things, in five unbeaten BL home games in a row, in 13 of a possible 15 points in this period and in five home wins in a row against the upcoming opponent. Looking back at the past five home games in the league, they have conceded a total of only three goals. Three clean sheets and four handicap wins with at least a two-goal difference round off the remarkable record and serve as a veritable argument for predicting a commanding three-goal win for the home side between Frankfurt and Bochum.
Last matches of Frankfurt:
Club friendlies
23/03/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 Greuther Fürth
Bundesliga
19/03/2023 – Union Berlin 2 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
Champions League Final
16/03/2023 – SSC Napoli 3 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga
11/03/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 VfB Stuttgart
05/03/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 2 – 2 Eintracht Frankfurt
Bochum – Statistics & current form
On matchdays 20-23, VfL Bochum not only conceded four defeats in a row, but also failed to score a goal of their own in all four defeats. The low point was the 0:2 defeat at home to FC Schalke 04, which ultimately led to Letsch’s team slipping to the bottom of the table. Many critics, who had the VfL pegged as one of the hottest relegation candidates in the run-up to this season, saw themselves vindicated.
However, on the last two match days, the Blue and Whites have bounced back. Just as impressively as surprisingly. First, the VfL scored a 2:0 away win at 1. FC Köln, which was hardly thought possible, and then the tired Leipzig team was defeated 1:0 at home. The players from the Ruhr region have long since given up the red lantern. Even better, they are currently in 14th place, which would mean they can stay in the relegation zone after 34 match days.
Bochum remain a welcome guest in BL stadiums
On Friday evening, however, Bochum face a brutally difficult task against a team that has remained unbeaten in 16 of the past 17 must-win duels between these clubs. Accordingly, it would of course be important for Letsch’s eleven to make a good impression defensively once again. For the first time since autumn 2021, the VfL recently went two games in a row without conceding a goal. However, the last time there were three Bundesliga games in a row with a clean sheet was 20 (!) years ago.
In general, we would refrain from odds on a maximum of two goals in the course of the match between Frankfurt and Bochum; after all, VfL conceded at least three goals in eight of the past eleven BL away matches.
The third-weakest visiting team in the German top flight (2-0-11) has already conceded a total of 35 goals and has suffered nine of the aforementioned eleven away defeats with a difference of two goals or more. Bets on over-goals in combination with an Eintracht win therefore seem just as interesting as the odds on a handicap win for the favourites.
Last games of Bochum:
Bundesliga
18/03/2023 – VfL Bochum 1 – 0 RB Leipzig
11/03/2023 – 1. FC Köln 0 – 2 VfL Bochum
04/03/2023 – VfL Bochum 0 – 2 Schalke 04
25/02/2023 – Werder Bremen 3 – 0 VfL Bochum
18/02/2023 – VfL Bochum 0 – 2 SC Freiburg
Frankfurt – Bochum Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
63 The clubs have met so far in the highest German division. Surprisingly, Bochum lead the direct comparison with 25 victories. Frankfurt celebrated 23 victories, while 15 encounters ended in a draw.
In the recent past, however, the pointer has mostly been in favour of the SGE. Eintracht lost only one of the last 17 competitive matches against VfL. The Hessians even managed to win 13 of the other 16 games, including the most recent five home games. In the first leg, however, the Glasner team was shown the limits with a 3-0 defeat in the Ruhr. From Frankfurt’s point of view, it remains to be hoped that the revenge will be successful on Friday.
Frankfurt – Bochum Tip
After a two-week international break, the ball will start rolling again in the Bundesliga on Friday evening. The 26th matchday will open with the match between Frankfurt and Bochum. Far lower betting odds are offered on a home win, which puts the SGE in the clear favourite role.
Although the Hessians have not won any of their last six competitive matches and also failed to win four consecutive Bundesliga games before the international break, they still have 13 points from their last five home games in the top flight. Three of the four victories were achieved without conceding a goal, and on four occasions the margin of victory was two goals or more.
Because Bochum are one of the league’s weakest away teams, having conceded 35 goals away from home and having lost nine of their last eleven away games, we are convinced that Glasner’s side will return to winning ways and record a commanding victory in front of their home crowd.
