Can the Cottagers prevail against Sunderland this time?
Just a fortnight ago, the Black Cats from Sunderland only narrowly missed a surprise in the FA Cup with a draw in London. Now it’s the second leg at home for the second division club, where SAFC will once again start as underdogs against first division side Fulham.
Looking at the Londoners’ recent form curve, the bookmakers’ assessment is understandable. The Cottagers have lost just two of their last nine competitive matches since the World Cup break. Among other things, FFC defied the Blues from London twice. It would therefore be all the more surprising if betting on the hosts pays off in Sunderland vs. Fulham.
The Black Cats have lost four of their last seven games at home anyway. On top of that, Sunderland have not reached the fifth round of the FA Cup since the 2014/15 season. It is quite possible that a prediction on this will not come true between Sunderland vs. Fulham either.
SAFC did not leave a bad impression in the first leg. However, the 1-1 draw at Craven Cottage should not be overestimated, as the Cottagers made use of a number of key players. If FFC are at their best in the second leg, the Londoners should not have too much trouble in the FA Cup.
Sunderland – Statistics & current form
Sunderland AFC are targeting a return to the English top flight. The Black Cats were promoted from the third-tier League One to the Championship last season and have since been in the promotion race in the second tier of the English league. After 29 matchdays in the Championship, SAFC are currently in ninth place.
The gap to the sixth and thus last starting place for the promotion play-offs is currently only two points. Accordingly, there are realistic chances of promotion for the Black Cats, especially as more than half of the second half of the season still has to be played.
Before the next league match against Reading FC, SAFC have the cup match against Fulham. The first leg in London ended in a draw, with the Black Cats narrowly missing out on a surprise. At one stage SAFC were leading 1-0 against FFC, but only conceded a goal after the break to make the score 1-1.
Did SAFC keep the Londoners’ attack at bay?
The strong performance in the first leg was certainly commendable. Although many of the first division side’s key players were called into action during the match, the Black Cats only conceded one goal. If they build on this, SAFC will not have to hide in the return match against the Londoners.
However, a win is rather unrealistic – at least based on the recent record in front of a home crowd. Even before the cup match against FFC, Sunderland had lost four of their last seven competitive matches at the Stadium of Light. However, bettors who still want to back the hosts in the Sunderland vs. Fulham match can pick up betting odds of up to 4.50 in the event of SAFC’s success.
With Evans and Embleton, the Black Cats will only have two players out due to injury. There are no other personnel worries for the second division team at the moment.
Predicted Sunderland line-up:
Patterson; Hume, Ballard, Batth, Alese; Neil, Michut; Roberts, Diallo, Clarke; Gelhardt
Last matches played by Sunderland:
Championship
04/02/2023 – Millwall 1 – 1 Sunderland
FA Cup
28/01/2023 – Fulham 1 – 1 Sunderland
Championship
22/01/2023 – Sunderland 2 – 0 Middlesboro
14/01/2023 – Sunderland 1 – 3 Swansea
FA Cup
07/01/2023 – Shrewsbury 1 – 2 Sunderland
Fulham – Statistics & current form
The Cottagers stay away from the relegation battle this season. A direct relegation, as was the case in the 2018/19 and 2020/21 seasons, can be ruled out – at least based on how the season has gone so far. Instead, FFC are aiming for a single-digit place in the table, where the Londoners already stand after 22 matchdays.
Fulham are currently even better placed than their city rivals Chelsea – and that despite the fact that FFC remained winless in their last three league games. Before the next league game in the English top flight, the Cottagers now continue in the FA Cup, where they are aiming for a place in the fifth round of the cup. FFC have not featured in the fifth round of the FA Cup since the 2016/17 season.
Compared to previous seasons, however, Fulham now have a realistic chance of ending their FA Cup fourth-round drought. With Sunderland, a feasible hurdle awaits the Cottagers – even if the second leg in the cup takes place away.
Will FFC shoot their way through?
With the cup tie coming up, the Cottagers’ recent run of form should not be overstated. Although the Londoners have not won any of their last four competitive matches, there have been three top-class opponents for FFC in the process. Marco Silva’s team lost against Newcastle (0:1) and Tottenham (0:1). There was also a draw (0:0) against Chelsea.
Only the draw against Sunderland was surprising, whereby the result was also due to the rotation in the squad. The Cottagers had rested a number of key players for the encounter against the second division side, including star striker Mitrovic – FFC’s top scorer – and Reid, who only came on in the second half.
For the second leg, the Londoners will probably only have to do without Kebano due to injury. There are no other absentees for the Cottagers.
Predicted line-up of Fulham:
Rodak; Tete, Adarabioyo, Diop, Kurzawa; Cairney, Reed; Reid, Pereira, Willian; Mitrovic
Last matches played by Fulham:
Premier League
04/02/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 0 Fulham
FA Cup
28/01/2023 – Fulham 1 – 1 Sunderland
Premier League
24/01/2023 – Fulham 0 – 1 Tottenham
15/01/2023 – Newcastle 1 – 0 Fulham
13/01/2023 – Fulham 2 – 1 Chelsea FC
Sunderland – Fulham Direct comparison / H2H balance
In the last 63 meetings between the two clubs, SAFC lead the head-to-head comparison against Fulham FC with a record of 24-20-19. The Black Cats have won two of their last four matches against FFC. Sunderland, on the other hand, lost only one of those four encounters.
There was also a draw between the two clubs in the most recent cup tie. With the 1-1 draw in the FA Cup, a tip on “BTS: Yes” paid off between Sunderland vs. Fulham for the third time in the last four duels.
Sunderland – Fulham Tip
The Cottagers go into the cup second leg against SAFC as favourites, as expected. Although the second division side from Sunderland did not leave a bad impression in the first leg, FFC’s role as favourites in the second leg is understandable. This time, the Londoners will probably start with their best line-up and should therefore not find it too difficult against Sunderland.
This is also supported by the recent home record of the upcoming opponents. Sunderland have lost four of their last seven games at the Stadium of Light. It tends to be unrealistic that this will be improved against FFC of all teams, especially as the promotion race in the Championship is far more important to SAFC than the FA Cup.
Just like the bookmakers, we rate the visitors from London as favourites in the upcoming encounter and expect a comfortable cup win. In the case of Sunderland vs. Fulham, our betting odds of 1.82 are on a win for FFC.
