Will the Black and Yellows continue to catch up?
With a nine-point gap to FC Bayern, Borussia Dortmund spent the winter in only sixth place. However, because the Westphalians made a perfect comeback from the winter break with three wins, this gap has now been reduced to three points. Now, SC Freiburg, who are level on points, are a welcome guest at Signal-Iduna-Park. According to the bookmakers, the next win for the black-and-yellow team in Dortmund against Freiburg will be a good bet.
After all, Dortmund have only lost one of their 22 home games against the Black Forest side in the Bundesliga (18 wins, three draws), which is why there is a lot to be said for predicting a home win for the Westphalians in Dortmund against Freiburg. With four points out of a possible nine and already ten goals conceded in three games, the men from Breisgau have not exactly come back from the nine-week break in the best possible shape.
However, underestimating Sport-Club could prove to be a mistake. Not only have the Black Forest side already won ten of their first 18 games and lost two fewer than BVB, but the team from Breisgau also has an enormous scoring threat, especially from set pieces.
As Borussia have also been vulnerable at times in their three victories in the new year, we think it is best to refrain from betting on a win. Instead, we are betting on over 2.5 goals in this top match.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
With eight league titles, five overall DFB Pokal victories and a UEFA Champions League triumph in 1997, Borussia Dortmund is one of the Bundesliga’s flagship teams. Accordingly, the Westphalians want to be in the fight for the championship.
However, for long stretches of the first half of the season, in which the black-and-yellow team has already lost six games, it did not look as if BVB could get involved in the title race. After three wins from the first three games in 2023, however, the form curve is currently clearly pointing upwards.
19 out of a possible 24 points from the first eight home games
Now the runners-up, who have meanwhile returned to fourth place, face a very groundbreaking match. If they can win their fourth league match of the new year against SC Freiburg, who are level on points, Edin Terzic’s team would draw level with FC Bayern again, at least overnight, and would suddenly be back in business.
If, on the other hand, the Black and Yellows lose at home, where they have picked up 19 of a possible 24 points so far this season, Borussia would slip out of the top four again.
So far, seven White Vests in the Bundesliga
Besides the home strength, however, there are two other aspects that suggest that betting on a home win for the Westphalians in Dortmund against Freiburg will work out. Firstly, BVB have only lost one of their 22 Bundesliga home games against Sport-Club (18 wins, three draws).
And secondly, the black-and-yellows have shown themselves to be much more solid defensively in the new season. The 25 goals conceded in total mean that BVB “only” have the fifth-best defence in the league. However, on Sunday in Leverkusen (2:0), the Dortmund team scored zero for the seventh time this season – just as often as in the entire pre-season…
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Kobel – Ryerson – Hummels – Süle – Wolf – Can – Adeyemi – Bellingham – Reus – Brandt – Haller
Last matches played by Dortmund:
Bundesliga
29/01/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
26/01/2023 – Mainz 05 1 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
22/01/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 4 – 3 Augsburg
Club friendlies
13/01/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 6 – 0 FC Basel 1893
10/01/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 5 – 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
C Freiburg were already one of the surprises of the Bundesliga in the 2021/22 season. After a long fight for a place in the Champions League, the Black Forest side ended up in sixth place and qualified for the Europa League.
Internationally, the men from Breisgau have already caused a sensation. The Sport-Club remained unbeaten in Group G (four wins, two draws) and qualified directly for the last 16 as group winners with 14 points and 13:3 goals.
The best haul since the introduction of the three-point rule
Parallel to this, there was little sign of a double burden for Christian Streich’s team. Freiburg spent the winter in second place in the table and managed to collect an impressive 34 points in the first 18 matchdays – more than ever before since the introduction of the three-point rule.
Nevertheless, after the latest haul of four points out of a possible nine after the World Cup break, the team is now only fifth in the table. Those responsible – above all the coach – are trying hard to play down any ambitions. Nevertheless, there is no denying that the Black Forest side could have done a little better.
Ten goals conceded in the last three league games
Although the betting odds are against Sport-Club in Dortmund vs Freiburg, the reigning DFB Cup finalists are always a force to be reckoned with simply because one of the Black Forest side’s new qualities is brutal efficiency in standard situations. The SCF has already scored 13 goals from resting balls – the second-best figure in the league behind Wolfsburg (14).
Meanwhile, the team from the south of Baden-Württemberg needs to stabilise its defence. SC Freiburg have already conceded ten goals in their three league games in the new year. By way of comparison: In the 15 games before that, they only conceded a total of 15 goals…
Predicted line-up of Freiburg:
Flekken – Günter – Lienhart – Ginter – Kübler – Höfler – Eggestein – Grifo – Doan – Höler – Gregoritsch
Last matches played by Freiburg:
Bundesliga
28/01/2023 – SC Freiburg 3 – 1 Augsburg
26/01/2023 – SC Freiburg 1 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
21/01/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 6 – 0 SC Freiburg
Club friendlies
13/01/2023 – SC Freiburg 5 – 2 Hamburger SV
07/01/2023 – FC Basel 1893 2 – 3 SC Freiburg
Dortmund – Freiburg Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
Head to head: 31 – 11 – 6
There have been a total of 48 meetings between the two teams so far and with 31 victories, BVB leads the direct comparison very clearly. Overall, the Westphalians have lost just one of their last 22 Bundesliga home games against the Black Forest side (18 wins, three draws).
Dortmund – Freiburg tip
In view of the very one-sided record, the prediction for Dortmund against Freiburg goes quite clearly to the home-strong Borussians. However, Sport-Club is always good for surprises, especially in standard situations, which is why the win bet carries corresponding risks. After all, the Black Forest side have already won four of the nine Bundesliga away games in the 2022/23 season.
With a view to the fact that the Black Forest side have already conceded ten goals in their three league games in the new year, while BVB have also been very high-scoring with 8:4 goals, we find the greatest value in betting on over 2.5 goals.
