Do home-strong Blancos keep Barcelona at bay?
It was three weeks ago when Real Madrid and Valencia last faced each other. In the Supercopa de Espana semi-final, the Blancos prevailed on penalties. Now both teams officially conclude the first half of the season in La Liga. For the royals, it is a matter of not losing touch with leader Barcelona. For this to happen, Real Madrid must bet on a home victory for the Merengues against Valencia.
The fact that Valencia came back from the World Cup break in the worst possible way speaks in favour of the Madrilenians. The Murciélagos won only two of their eight competitive matches after Qatar (two draws, four defeats) and celebrated both victories in the Copa del Rey at underclass teams. In La Liga, meanwhile, Los Che already have eight defeats from 18 games, so the forecast for Real Madrid against Valencia is leaning towards the home side.
However, things have been anything but smooth for the Blancos of late. Real Madrid have only won three of their last seven league games (two draws, two defeats). In addition, Valencia parted company with coach Gennaro Gattuso on Monday, which has the potential to bring a breath of fresh air to the team from Spain’s east coast.
Accordingly, in our eyes, the bet on the Murciélagos is consistent with an Asian handicap of +1.5. That not only includes any surprising point win by Los Che, but also covers any home win by the Merengues with a maximum goal difference.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid celebrated their 35th national championship in Spain last summer and also secured the UEFA Champions League for the 14th time in the club’s history. The Blancos were thus able to further extend their already existing status as record winners in both competitions.
The Merengues went into the new season with a correspondingly broad chest, where for a long time all signs pointed to defending the title. Among other things, the Royals won the Clásico against Barca 3:1 and took 31 of a possible 33 points from their first eleven games.
Dropped points in four of last seven league games
However, the capital city team went into a tailspin, picking up just eleven points from a possible 21 in their last seven league games (three wins, two draws, two defeats). This means that there is currently a gap of five points between them and FC Barcelona in the La Liga table.
As if that were not enough, the Merengues were also defeated in the final of the Supercopa de Espana in the Clásico, which was definitely a first sign of the championship. It is therefore important for Carlo Ancelotti’s team to leave as little as possible to be desired in the coming weeks.
None of the last 14 home games against Valencia lost
With Valencia, the Blancos now host a team at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu against whom they have not lost any of their last 14 home games in La Liga (nine wins, five draws). Accordingly, the betting odds on Real Madrid against Valencia are clearly in favour of the Blancos.
After all, the white ballet has not lost a single game in front of its own fans in the 2022/23 season either. In La Liga, they have won five and drawn three of their eight home games, while in the Champions League they won all three of their home games on the way to winning their group, and most recently they also recorded a home win against Atlético in the Copa del Rey.
Real Madrid’s likely line-up:
Courtois – Mendy – Rüdiger – Militao – Fernández – Ceballos – Kroos – Valverde – Júnior – Rodrygo – Benzema
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
La Liga
30/01/2023 – Real Madrid 0 – 0 Real Sociedad
Copa del Rey
27/01/2023 – Real Madrid 3 – 1 Atletico Madrid
La Liga
23/01/2023 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 2 Real Madrid
Copa del Rey
20/01/2023 – FC Villarreal 2 – 3 Real Madrid
Super Cup
16/01/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 3 FC Barcelona
Valencia – Statistics & current form
Valencia Club de Fútbol finished a disappointing ninth in the final La Liga table at the end of the 2021/22 season and also lost the Copa del Rey final to Betis Sevilla. Against this backdrop, there was subsequently a shake-up on the Spanish east coast.
Gennaro Gattuso, a promising new coach, was brought to the country’s third-largest city but failed to make much of an impact and was forced to pack his bags on Monday, the day after a 1-0 defeat at Real Valladoid
The third most defeats in the current millennium
The Murciélagos (the bats) suffered their eighth defeat in 18 league games at Real Valladolid. In the current millennium, that equates to the third most defeats at this point in the season after 2013/14 and 2016/17 (nine defeats each).
Los Che, who have only two wins in the Copa del Rey following the Winter World Cup and have failed to win any of their other six competitive matches (two draws, four defeats), will go into this away game in the national capital some 350 km away suitably ticked off.
Won only one of eight away games in La Liga
The training of the Blanquinegros was recently taken over by interim team manager Voro González, who will probably also coach the team at the Bernabéu. Accordingly, there is little to be said for a forecast of a point win for the Murciélagos in Real Madrid against Valencia, who have only won one of eight league games away from home this season (three draws, four defeats).
A small glimmer of hope, however, is Los Che’s fundamentally stable defence, which has conceded only eleven goals in eight away games in league play – eighth best in La Liga.
Predicted line-up of Valencia:
Mamardashvili – Gayà – Ökzacar – Cömert – Mosquera – Lato – Musah – Almeida – Lino – Castillejo – Cavani
Last matches played by Valencia:
La Liga
29/01/2023 – Real Valladolid 1 – 0 Valencia
Copa del Rey
27/01/2023 – Valencia 1 – 3 Athletic Bilbao
La Liga
24/01/2023 – Valencia 2 – 2 Almeria
Copa del Rey
19/01/2023 – Sporting Gijon 0 – 4 Valencia
Super Cup
12/01/2023 – Real Madrid (4)1 – 1(3) Valencia
Real Madrid – Valencia Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Head to head: 104 – 40 – 53
There have been a total of 197 meetings between the two teams so far and the Blancos lead the head-to-head comparison with 104 wins, including their most recent victory over the Murciélagos on penalties in Saudi Arabia in the Supercopa de Espana semi-finals. At home in La Liga, Real Madrid have not lost any of their last 14 home games against Los Che (nine wins, five draws).
Real Madrid – Valencia Tip
For Real Madrid against Valencia, the odds are clearly in favour of the Merengues, who are still a power at home. However, the royals have failed to win four of their last seven league games, as they did in the Supercopa de Espana semi-final against the Murciélagos (1-1) in normal time. Moreover, because Gattuso’s dismissal could act as a knot-turner, the Blanquinegros’ point win is not categorically ruled out.
It is accordingly consistent to bet on Real Madrid against Valencia with an Asian handicap of +1.5, which covers all eventualities of the Murciélagos winning the point as well as any home victory of the Blancos with only a one-goal advantage.
