Do the Basques pull off another surprise?
16 teams are left in the Copa del Rey and La Liga relegated Alaves is one of them. The Babazorros have already beaten first division Real Valladolid 1-0 and now face struggling Sevilla FC.
In principle, betting on an away win for the Andalusians is the obvious choice for Alaves against Sevilla. However, another cup surprise can by no means be ruled out in this duel in particular.
After all, the Nervionenses still occupy a direct relegation spot in La Liga and just can’t find a way out of their form crisis. After two commanding victories in the Copa del Rey, there was also a redemptive 2:1 against Getafe in La Liga. On Saturday, however, the Rojiblancos again lost 2-1 in Girona. Another setback, which also affects our forecast for Alaves against Sevilla.
While it is clear to state that things are currently anything but good for Deportivo Alaves as well. The Basques, who played a leading role in the promotion battle for a long time, lost five of their last six league games. Nevertheless, Sevilla, a club in crisis, will now travel to the Mendizorrotza, having won only two of their nine away games in La Liga in the 2022/23 season.
Therefore, the underdog bet and the bet on a home win for the Babazorros, for which the bookmakers’ quotes are very promising, is very interesting. Of course, a bet must also take into account the risk involved.
Alaves – Statistics & current form
Deportivo Alaves celebrated their 100th anniversary in 2021 and were still in La Liga at the time of the celebrations. After finishing 16th in the final table of the 2020/21 season, however, the Basques suffered a disastrous subsequent season, which ended in relegation from the top flight of Spanish football with 23 defeats from the 38 league games.
The Babazorros only managed 31 points and finished bottom of La Liga, relegated to the second division. The upheaval last summer was correspondingly large.
Lost five of the last six league games
For a long time, the relegated team was nevertheless right at the top of the promotion race, but during the Winter World Cup, of all times, it completely lost its way. Since the beginning of December, the Basques have lost five of their last six league games and slipped down to fifth place in the table after the recent 1-0 defeat at Real Oviedo.
Of course, this does not mean that their dreams of direct promotion are over yet, as they can still draw on their strong start to the season, which brought them 34 points from the first 17 games – an average of two points per game. What is clear, however, is that a turnaround is needed in the near future.
Soon in the sixteenth final with a win over a first division team
When the Babazorros put their performance on the pitch, Alaves were an absolutely serious opponent, who even eliminated first division Real Valladolid 1-0 in the Copa del Rey. So it is by no means out of the question that the bets on Alaves against Sevilla will go in favour of the Basques.
However, Luis García’s team, which secured the loan of Real Madrid’s Antonio Blanco in the winter transfer market, needs more success as soon as possible. A cup coup against the Europa League record winners could well be the spark that sets the ball rolling…
Predicted line-up of Alaves:
Owono – Duarte – Maras – Abqar – Tenaglia – Sevilla – Benavídez – Alkain – Guridi – Rioja – de la Fuente
Last matches played by Alaves:
LaLiga2
14/01/2023 – Real Oviedo 1 – 0 Deportivo Alaves
08/01/2023 – Deportivo Alaves 1 – 0 Burgos CF
Copa del Rey
05/01/2023 – Deportivo Alaves 1 – 0 Real Valladolid
22/12/2022 – Merida 0 – 1 Deportivo Alaves
LaLiga2
19/12/2022 – Malaga 1 – 0 Deportivo Alaves
Sevilla – Statistics & current form
Sevilla FC experienced a major upheaval in the summer of 2022 when several key players were sold without adequate replacements being provided. The consequence was a false start in La Liga, which cost the job of successful coach Julen Lopetegui early in the season.
At the beginning of October, Jorge Sampaoli, a very experienced man, took over as coach in the Andalusian capital. However, the Argentinean was not able to pull the cart out of the mud. After 17 league games, the Nervionenses still find themselves in a direct relegation spot in La Liga.
The next setback after four competitive games without defeat
Only 15 points are on the books of Sevilla FC, with almost two thirds of those (nine out of 15) coming on foreign soil. With “only” two wins from nine away games in league play, the Rojiblancos’ away record is not really impressive.
Nevertheless, there was a brief flicker of hope when a series of good results were achieved during the World Cup break. The Nervionenses were initially able to build on the 1-1 draw against Monaco and the 1-0 win over Benfica Lisbon. In the Copa del Rey, there were two clear away victories against lower-class teams with a total of 8:0 goals and also in La Liga, four of six possible points were picked up.
On Saturday against Cadiz only victory counts
However, Sevilla recently lost again away at Girona FC with 1:2 and experienced the next setback in the ongoing crisis. The home game against Cadiz next Saturday is already casting its shadow, when a win against a direct competitor in the relegation battle is imperative.
On the one hand, an away win in the Copa del Rey would provide important self-confidence. On the other hand, Jorge Sampaoli needs his best team in the best possible condition on Saturday, which is why slight rotation in the cup is not out of the question. The Rojiblancos’ role as favourites is correspondingly unclear, although the bookmakers’ betting odds on Alaves against Sevilla clearly point in the direction of the Andalusians.
Predicted Sevilla line-up:
Dimitrovic – Acuna – Gudelj – Nianzou – Montiel – Rakitic – Jordán – Torres – Lamela – Suso – En-Nesyri
Last matches played by Sevilla:
La Liga
14/01/2023 – Girona 2 – 1 Sevilla FC
09/01/2023 – Sevilla FC 2 – 1 Getafe
Copa del Rey
05/01/2023 – Linares Deportivo 0 – 5 Sevilla FC
La Liga
31/12/2022 – Celta Vigo 1 – 1 FC Sevilla
Copa del Rey
22/12/2022 – Juventud Torremolinos CF 0 – 3 Sevilla FC
Alaves – Sevilla Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 7 – 8 – 13
There have been a total of 28 competitive matches between the two teams so far and with 13 wins Sevilla lead the direct comparison very clearly. Most recently, the Nervionenses remained unbeaten in nine consecutive duels with Alaves (five wins, four draws).
Alaves – Sevilla tip
Although the record and the league difference are in favour of the Nervionenses, it is anything but easy to make a prediction on the outcome of Alaves against Sevilla. The Basques are, after all, an ambitious second division side who have already knocked Real Valladolid out of the Copa del Rey and have two more wins in La Liga than today’s guests from Andalusia. However, the Babazorros have lost five of their last six league games.
Despite this, it makes a lot of sense in our eyes to bet on the Basques’ cup coup for the reasons outlined, especially as the ratio of risk, probability of occurrence and possibility of winning can be rated very positively.
