Does Zverev have to stretch himself right from the start?

German number one Alexander Zverev will celebrate his comeback at Grand Slam level on Monday night. The 25-year-old will play his first Grand Slam around eight months after suffering a serious ligament injury in the semi-finals against Rafael Nadal at the 2022 French Open.

While the Hamburg native would certainly be one of the favourites at the Australian Open in normal form, it now remains to be seen how he performs Down Under.

Seeded twelfth, the German hope had the luck of the draw on his side in the first round. With Juan Pablo Varillas, a lucky loser awaits, who actually lost his decisive qualification match, but nevertheless slipped into the 128-strong field of participants. Although Sascha is still searching for his best form after the long lay-off, betting on the German to win should pay off between Zverev and Varillas.

At the same time, we would be cautious about betting on an easy opening victory for the former world number two. After all, Sophia Thomalla’s boyfriend is still waiting for his first official win at an ATP tournament after his comeback.

The serve in particular is still causing problems, which is why it is perhaps advisable to check a forecast before Zverev’s match against Varillas that the Peruvian will hold up better than the best bookmakers are currently expecting.

Juan Pablo Varillas – Statistics & current form

For Juan Pablo Varillas, just making it to the first round of the Australian Open is a huge success. This is the first time the Peruvian has reached the main draw of the first Grand Slam tournament of the year. In purely sporting terms, however, the world number 104 would not have qualified.

After two wins in the qualifiers against Marcora and Galarneau, the 27-year-old lost his personal final against Yosuke Watanuki, but was informed a little later that he would be allowed to compete in Melbourne as a lucky loser. On one of the bigger courts, Varillas will now certainly be able to play one of the biggest matches of his career so far, after all, until a few days ago, he only had one first-round appearance at the French Open to his name.

Varillas is building on his fitness advantage

In fact, clay is clearly the favourite surface of the South American, who has only played a total of twelve matches (!) on hard court or grass in the past three years. Apart from that, Varillas focuses exclusively on the red clay, which has to be taken into account in view of the starting position on Monday night.

Under these circumstances, it is no wonder that the odds for the German’s success between Zverev and Varillas do not even crack the 1.10 mark. The underdog does not have a particularly powerful serve and will probably only hit a few winners. On the other hand, he should be physically fit and force Zverev into many longer rallies. The right-hander, who has already won five Tour clay titles in his career, also has nothing to lose. Can he therefore even make the match even?

Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form

Alexander Zverev is back on the big tennis stage. Almost eight months after his serious injury in the French Open semi-finals, the Hamburg-born player has been feeling his way back for a few weeks. The fact that his return to the tour and regaining his best form will take a lot of time, however, could already be observed in his first matches after the compulsory break.

Especially in the two most recent matches at the United Cup, Zverev looked without a chance. Against the Czech Jiri Lechecka and the admittedly strong Taylor Fritz, the Olympic champion from Tokyo lost in two sets. Against Fritz, Sascha won just five games, against Lechecka it was six.

Zverev is at a maximum of 70%

The German only made the point 65% of the time when the first serve came. The force behind the service is not back yet. Problems with the ball throw also ensure that double faults keep happening. Zverev is not yet able to rely on his strengths and is also far from being at 100% mentally.

He has also not yet regained confidence in his own movements after such a serious ankle ligament injury. The bottom line is that there are too many uncertainties to play the odds on an outright 3-0 win between Zverev and Varillas.

Because the US Open finalist and Australian Open semi-finalist from 2020 also likes to stay on court longer than desired in the early rounds in the past, we could expect a closer match than many currently think. The handicap (+7.5 games) in favour of the Peruvian is therefore definitely worth considering. Those who even believe that Zverev will lose the first set but still make it to the second round can pick up top odds of 6.00.

Juan Pablo Varillas – Alexander Zverev Direct comparison / H2H balance

The paths of Juan Pablo Varillas and Alexander Zverev have not yet crossed. No official duel on the ATP Tour stands in the head-to-head statistics

Juan Pablo Varillas – Alexander Zverev Tip

From a German perspective, we are of course delighted about Alexander Zverev’s return to the Grand Slam stage. However, we should not raise expectations too high, because after such a long injury break, the Hamburg player is not even close to 100%. This has also been impressively underlined by the matches so far in 2023. In our opinion, the betting odds between Zverev and Varillas are therefore far too clearly in favour of the former world number two.

Varillas is not really a dangerous opponent, as he has never reached the second round of a Grand Slam tournament and has only played twelve matches on hard court or grass in the past three years. Nevertheless, the overall situation holds at least a small potential for surprise. Especially because Zverev is putting himself under pressure, while his South American opponent can play quite freely.

We have therefore decided to make a bet between Zverev and Varillas that the match will be closer than expected. The games handicap (+7.5) at top odds of 1.99 is quite respectable, especially as this does not completely rule out the possibility of an outright three-set win by the favourite.