Atletico will have to stretch themselves in Asturias
The Spanish King’s Cup has always been good for surprises in recent years. In three of the past four seasons, clubs not based in Madrid or Barcelona have won the title. Of the three big players in national football, Atletico Madrid has waited the longest for a Copa triumph. Since 2013, the Colchoneros have not been allowed to hold the trophy in their hands.
The capitals would love to end this long drought in the current season. However, there is still a long and, above all, rocky road to travel until then. The next hurdle on the way to the final is a familiar one, but it has been more than 20 years since the Iberian Peninsula has been able to breathe the first league air. Consequently, between Real Oviedo and Atletico Madrid, betting on the Simeone team is seen as a far more likely option.
The home side, however, do not see themselves completely without a chance. After all, the Blue and Whites have the home advantage and are otherwise playing in the second division. Compared to FC Barcelona or Real Madrid, the Rojiblancos have been given a very complicated task. Nevertheless, it takes a lot of imagination and the courage to take risks to venture a prediction in favour of the underdogs before the third-round match between Oviedo and Atletico Madrid.
Oviedo – Statistics & current form
Many Spanish football fans will definitely still be familiar with Real Oviedo. Especially in the 90s, the team from Asturias was able to establish itself in the highest division of the country and even make it to the UEFA Cup. However, the five-time second division champions are now far removed from these former glory days. After eight seasons in the third division, the traditional club, which was founded in 1926, has now been back in the Segunda Division for eight years.
However, after financial problems in the current millennium, those responsible do not yet have any great ambitions in the direction of La Liga. This is also clear from the current standings in the lower division. As 14th in the table, they are five points behind the play-off places and six points ahead of the first relegation place. The bitter reality is called mediocrity.
Goals scored and goals conceded are rare for Real Oviedo
The offensive output of coach Àlvaro Cervera’s team is below average, with only 13 goals scored in 21 matches. No other second division team has scored fewer goals so far this season. In not a single league match did they score more than one goal of their own. On eight occasions they even scored zero. No wonder, then, that we are looking at the odds on another zero for the host team before the cup match between Oviedo and Atletico Madrid.
In general, we can expect few goals in normal time. Only in three of the 21 league games mentioned above involving the team from Asturias was the mark of 2.5 goals broken. In the second round of the Copa del Rey, which Oviedo won 1-0 at home against league rivals Granada, an under-bet would also have gone through. Before the kick-off of the Oviedo vs Atletico Madrid match, the Under 2.5 prediction would therefore be another trivial recommendation.
Predicted line-up of Oviedo:
Nadal; Ahijado, Luengo, Calvo, Bretones; Prendes, Suarez; Rozada, Koindredi, Sanchez; Baston
Last matches played by Oviedo:
Copa del Rey
23/12/2022 – Real Oviedo 1 – 0 Granada
LaLiga2
18/12/2022 – Real Oviedo 1 – 0 Sporting Gijon
12/12/2022 – Eibar 1 – 0 Real Oviedo
07/12/2022 – Real Oviedo 0 – 0 Las Palmas
01/12/2022 – Tenerife 0 – 1 Real Oviedo
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
The re-start after the World Cup went according to plan for Atletico Madrid. Despite a lacklustre performance, the Colchoneros won their home match against Elche 2-0 and thus remained without conceding a goal in the Spanish La Liga for the first time since mid-October. The important success was also influenced by Antoine Griezmann’s pink hair and the curious goal by Alvaro Morata, who did not even realise at first that his deflected shot had hit the net.
Coach Diego Simeone’s team now wants to win its first competitive match in the new calendar year 2023. The chances are pretty good. Away at Real Oviedo, Atletico Madrid are the clear favourites according to the odds. The top odds are currently 1.50 for an away victory after 90 minutes.
Atletico Madrid and the Copa del Rey have not been friends of late
Meanwhile, we don’t need to assume a goal-filled spectacle with the better outcome for the Rojiblancos. For one thing, the Madrid side have only managed to score more than two goals of their own three times in 23 competitive games in the 2022/23 season. On the other hand, the Red and Whites also had a harder time than expected in the first two cup rounds. SD Almazán and CD Arenteiro were relatively close wins, 2-0 and 3-1 respectively.
Against this background, we would refrain from predicting a handicap win for the favourites between Oviedo and Atletico Madrid and instead combine the expected win for the visitors after regular time with the Under 3.5. Alternatively, it is also conceivable to bet on a success including the clean sheet.
However, you cannot completely rule out another slip-up by the title aspirants, as the Simeone team never made it past the last 16 of the Spanish Cup in the past four seasons. In 2019/20 and 2020/21, they were eliminated in the second and third rounds respectively against no-name opponents. This time, the Argentine coach will again voluntarily leave out many stars and start the rotation machine with a view to this weekend’s league home game against Barcelona.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak; Gimenez, Savic, Hermoso; Llorente, Koke, Barrios, Koke, Reguilon; Lemar, Morata
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
La Liga
30/12/2022 – Atletico Madrid 2 – 0 Elche
Copa del Rey
23/12/2022 – CD Arenteiro 1 – 3 Atletico Madrid
Friendly club matches
14/12/2022 – Ponferradina 2 – 4 Atletico Madrid
Copa del Rey
13/11/2022 – SD Almazan 0 – 2 Atletico Madrid
La Liga
10/11/2022 – Mallorca 1 – 0 Atletico Madrid
Oviedo – Atletico Madrid Direct comparison / H2H record
1999/2000 was the last time the clubs spent a season together in the Spanish top flight. In 2001/2002 two more encounters in the second division followed. Since then, the former rivalry between these teams, which spans 82 encounters across the competition, has fallen asleep. On Wednesday, it will be revisited, but with clear omens.
Oviedo – Atletico Madrid Tip
Second division side Real Oviedo face Atletico Madrid in the third round of the Copa del Rey on Wednesday night. For the past four years, matches in the national cup competition have been decided in 90 minutes plus possible extra time and penalty shootouts. This increases the likelihood of potential surprises. The Colchoneros had to make this hard experience in two of the last three seasons.
For the upcoming clash, however, we expect the Simeone team to prevail. However, we would not bet on a glorious victory, as the home side have only conceded 17 goals in 21 games in La Liga 2 and the Madrid side also traditionally struggle to score goals.
In order to also take into account the unlikely event of a cup sensation, we have instead opted to tip for a maximum of two goals after 90 minutes between Oviedo and Atletico Madrid.
