A must-win for the Madrilenians?
It has been almost ten years since Real Madrid won the Copa del Rey. The 2013/14 season was the last time the royals were able to secure the Spanish King’s Cup. The reigning champions have failed several times at an early stage in previous editions.
On Tuesday evening, coach Carlo Ancelotti’s men will be looking to avoid embarrassment and book their place in the last 16. The Madrilenians’ opening opponent does not appear to be a particularly big hurdle. Those wishing to place a bet on the underdog before the Cacereno vs. Real Madrid clash can look forward to odds of 21.00 on the three-way market in the event of a successful outcome.
The dramatic lopsidedness of the winning odds is, of course, due to the fact that a fourth-division team is meeting last season’s Champions League winners. Nevertheless, with regard to the Cacereno vs. Real Madrid prediction, it should not be disregarded that the home side have already eliminated first division side Girona in the competition so far and will certainly put everything on the line to show themselves from a good side in the biggest match in the club’s history.
Cacereno – Statistics & current form
By far the biggest highlight of their own career awaits the semi-professional kickers of CP Cacereno. In front of a home crowd at the sold-out Estadio Príncipe Felipe, the fourth-division club will get the unique chance to face the reigning Champions League winners and Spanish champions in a must-win match. For weeks, people in Cáceres, in the autonomous community of Extremadura, near the Portuguese border, have been talking about nothing else.
From a purely sporting point of view, the Green-Whites have absolutely earned this match of the century. Two days before Christmas, the south-western Spanish side beat Girona, who are twelfth in La Liga, 2-1 at home and thus made it to the third round of the Copa del Rey for the first time since 2012/13. Cordóba, another fourth-division team, had already been beaten 3-0 in their opening match.
With 7,000 fans behind them to a huge sensation?
Normally, CP Cacereno themselves are based in Spain’s multi-track fourth division. They currently sit in sixth place, although coach Julio Cobos’ side could theoretically draw level on points with the second-placed team if they win their second leg. They have not lost any of their last five league games, and keeper Ivan Moreno has not conceded a goal three times in that period.
Respect must also be paid to their good home record, as five of the seven matches played in front of their own fans to date have been victorious. 13 of the 19 goals were scored at home. In addition, they have only conceded seven goals in their own stadium. However, the opponents are usually CD Estepona, Don Benito or Unión Adarve and not Real Madrid.
All the statistics are therefore just wastepaper. It would be a great success if the fourth-division team didn’t get their heads blown off. Given the circumstances, we think the underdogs will definitely do that and even tend to play the odds between Cacereno and Real Madrid for an away win and a maximum of three goals after 90 minutes.
Predicted Cacereno line-up:
Moreno; Ramirez, Caparros, Traore, Gomis; Garci, Bermudez, Arteaga, Manchon, El Kounni; Grande
Last matches played by Cacereno:
Copa del Rey
23/12/2022 – Cacereno 2 – 1 Girona
Segunda Federacion – Group 5
11/12/2022 – Don Benito 2 – 3 Cacereno
04/12/2022 – Cacereno 2 – 2 Gimnastica Segoviana
27/11/2022 – CD Estepona 0 – 0 Cacereno
20/11/2022 – Cacereno 3 – 0 Atletico Madrid B
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
After some of Spain’s top teams were allowed to watch in the first two cup rounds, Real Madrid or FC Barcelona are now getting into the action. Especially the first tasks are no more than a chore to be completed for the frequent players from Madrid or Catalonia. Nevertheless, there is not much to be gained, but all the more to be lost. Therefore, the right amount of concentration, seriousness and dedication is needed.
Hardly any other club in the world combines these qualities as well as Real Madrid under Carlo Ancelotti – one might think. The reality is quite different with regard to the last few years in the Copa del Rey. In fact, the Italian coach has only been able to lift the Spanish King’s Cup once. The title win in 2014 was also the last for the Royals in this competition.
Real’s priority of late has not been the Copa del Rey
The Royals disappointed on several occasions and were eliminated against lower-class opponents. In 2020/21, for example, CD Alcoyano was too big for them in the third round. In 2017/18, the capitals lost to Legánes. The reigning Spanish champions are not immune to slip-ups and have only reached the final round of the Cup of Kings once in the past eight seasons.
This trend is partly due to the fact that in many cases Real give supplementary players and youngsters a chance to make their mark in the cup. With a huge number of fixtures in the bloated Super Cup, La Liga, the Champions League and the Club World Cup in February, and some players having just returned from the World Cup in Qatar, it is likely that Ancelotti will again send only a few stars onto the pitch.
Against this backdrop, it may even be an option to bet on the favourites having a harder time in the first half than expected. For a maximum of one goal in the first 45 minutes, odds of 1.65 are offered at the top between Cacereno and Real Madrid.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Lunin; Vazquez, Nacho, Vallejo, Odriozola; Camavinga, Tchouameni, Ceballos; Asensio, Rodrygo, Hazard
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
La Liga
31/12/2022 – Real Valladolid 0 – 2 Real Madrid
11/11/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 1 Cadiz
08/11/2022 – Rayo Vallecano 3 – 2 Real Madrid
Champions League Grp. F
03/11/2022 – Real Madrid 5 – 1 Celtic Glasgow
La Liga
30/10/2022 – Real Madrid 1 – 1 Girona
Cacereno – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H balance
The head-to-head record of these two clubs of vastly different sizes is quickly dealt with, as they actually face each other in an official competitive match for the first time on Tuesday night. It is also likely to be their first and only head-to-head meeting indefinitely.
Cacereno – Real Madrid Tip
For four years now, only the two semi-finals in the Spanish King’s Cup have been played with a first and second leg. In the previous rounds, 90 minutes of regular time plus possible extra time and a penalty shootout decide who advances and who is eliminated. However, the current Champions League winners do not really want to deal with such eventualities.
Instead, they want to land a commanding victory in round three and thus avert embarrassment. Before the match between Cacereno and Real Madrid, however, the betting odds paint a very clear picture in favour of the Madrilenians. No wonder, after all, a fourth-division team is facing one of the best teams in the world.
Because coach Ancelotti, who last won the Copa with this world club in 2014, will send an improved B or even C eleven onto the pitch, handicap bets should be viewed with caution. In our eyes, it is also quite conceivable that there will be a solid 2-0/3-0 win for the favourites in the end.
Therefore, ahead of the sixteen-final Cacereno vs. Real Madrid, we play the tip on the Galactics winning both halves. We are risking four units as a stake. The top odds are 2.00. Alternatively, we recommend a combined bet on ‘Win Real & Under 3.5’. Here you can even get a 2.15 in the event of success.
