Will Ruud build on his performance from last year?
There will be a debut in the Green Group on Sunday afternoon as part of the 53rd staging of the ATP Finals. Félix Auger-Aliassime is taking part in the ATP Tour’s year-end tournament for the first time, something he earned by winning a total of four tournaments in the 2022 calendar year. In his first match, he will face Casper Ruud, who reached the semi-finals on his own debut a year ago.
The Norwegian remembers the Pala Alpitour from last year and has good memories of the indoor hard court tournament after finishing second in the round robin behind Novak Djokovic. Despite his experience advantage, however, Casper Ruud’s betting on his opening win against Félix Auger-Aliassime is not under the best of omens.
In terms of individual titles won and annual balance, the young Canadian has his nose in front. Félix Auger-Aliassime not only won four tournaments, but also 56 of his 81 singles, most recently winning 16 of the last 17 matches.
However, Casper Ruud excelled especially in major tournaments. The Norwegian reached the final of two Grand Slam tournaments and also prevailed in the only direct duel with the Canadian in 2022.
Accordingly, the forecast for Casper Ruud against Félix Auger-Aliassime is that the Norwegian can record an opening victory in the Green Group at the ATP Finals 2022.
Casper Ruud – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 4
Position in the seedings: 3
The 23-year-old Norwegian Casper Ruud made his debut at the ATP Finals a year ago, where he also made it through the preliminary round in one go after two wins over Andrey Rublev and Cameron Norrie.
It was also thanks to this experience that the man from Oslo was able to take the next step in the 2022 season. After Ruud still missed the season opener, he reached the final at both the 2022 French Open and the 2022 US Open.
Won three of the six finals reached in 2022
The only thing that didn’t work out for the Norwegian, who has meanwhile climbed to fourth place in the ATP world rankings, was his first Major title. Ruud also missed out on the overall victory at the Miami Masters in the final against Alcaraz.
However, these three lost finals are offset by three final victories, which the 23-year-old again only won in comparatively small tournaments on the ATP Tour 250. Moreover, all three titles were won on clay, Ruud’s favourite surface.
48 of 68 singles won in 2022
The world number four has caught up on the other surfaces recently, however, as underlined by his appearance in the final of the US Open and Miami Masters, where he beat Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov and Matteo Berrettini, among others. All in all, the 23-year-old goes into the ATP Finals with a yearly record of 48 wins against 20 losses.
Accordingly, it is surprising that the odds are against the Norwegian in Casper Ruud against Félix Auger-Aliassime, who has already proved his ability on hard court against the Canadian this year. In the quarter-finals of the Roger’s Cup, Ruud beat Auger-Aliassime convincingly and smoothly 2-0 (6-1 and 6-2) in Auger-Aliassime’s home country.
Félix Auger-Aliassime – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world rankings: 6
Position in the seedings: 5
The 22-year-old Canadian Félix Auger-Aliassime has already made several positive appearances in 2021, for example when he reached the quarter-finals of the Wimbledon Championships and the semi-finals of the US Open.
In the 2021 year-end ranking, the man from Montreal was already ranked eleventh, although he had not yet won a single singles title on the ATP Tour at that time. Curiously, Auger-Aliassime lost his first eight reached finals in a row.
Won four of the five finals in 2022
But the 22-year-old then broke that final curse in 2022 when he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas 2-0 in Rotterdam in February. Although Auger-Aliassime lost the final to Andrey Rublev 0-2 only a week later in Marseille, the tournament in Rotterdam was, in retrospect, the turnaround.
Of the total of five finals reached in the 2022 season, the world number six won four matches. Admittedly, these four individual titles did not include a major title. Most recently, however, the Canadian won his second tournament from the “ATP Tour 500” category with the Swiss Indoors in Basel at the end of October.
16 of the last 17 singles matches won
Multi-player Félix Auger-Aliassime now has a total of 81 singles matches played this season, 56 of which he won. His establishment in the top 10 of the ATP world rankings was no coincidence either, as the 22-year-old played 13 of these 81 singles against other top 10 players, winning six matches. A respectable win rate of 46%.
It is therefore not out of the question that Casper Ruud’s bet on his opening win against Félix Auger-Aliassime will come true, especially as the Canadian has had a great October of late, winning 16 of his last 17 singles matches.
Casper Ruud – Félix Auger-Aliassime Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 2:1
Casper Ruud and Félix Auger-Aliassime have faced each other a total of three times so far. After the Canadian prevailed 2-1 at the Miami Open in 2019, the Norwegian recently won two straight with a straight 2-0 score.
Casper Ruud – Félix Auger-Aliassime Tip
Although bettors favour the in-form Canadian, who won 16 of his 17 singles matches played in October, our prediction goes to the Norwegian for Casper Ruud against Félix Auger-Aliassime. Although the world number four won one less title than Auger-Aliassime in 2022, he was much more convincing on the big stages. Ruud played in two Grand Slam finals in 2022.
In addition, Casper Ruud already knows the ATP Finals and can benefit from the experience of the previous year. All these are good prerequisites that create a good ratio of risk and probability of occurrence in the supposed underdog bet.
