Who will be crowned World Champion?
A surprise pairing has emerged in the grand final of this year’s WTA Finals, held in Fort Worth, Texas.
Not Polish high-flyer Iga Swiatek, who topped the entire WTA Tour in 2022 and dropped just 13 games in the round robin, entered the final as the heavy favourite, but Aryna Sabalenka.
The Belarusian, who recorded one of her biggest career wins ever in the semifinals, is now just one win away from her biggest triumph. However, her French opponent is also in good form, which is why it is anything but easy to tip the outcome in the run-up to the final between Aryna Sabalenka and Caroline Garcia.
By the way, both ladies have already faced each other this year. In the semifinals of the Western & Southern Open, where Caroline Garcia even won the overall title in the end, the Frenchwoman won a tough fight in the semifinals against the Belarussian 2:1. It is therefore interesting to predict that Aryna Sabalenka will again have to win by a certain length against Caroline Garcia before the winner can be crowned.
We are betting on more than 22.5 games, especially as only one of the four duels between the two women so far has ended with fewer games.
Aryna Sabalenka – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 7
Position in the seedings: 7
The 24-year-old Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka has been part of the WTA Tour since 2016 and has already won four Major titles at WTA 1000 tournaments since then. Since her last triumph at the Madrid Open in 2021, however, another major success has been a long time coming.
In the calendar year 2022, the lady from Minsk did not win a single singles title on the WTA Tour. She lost both of the finals she reached 2-0: at the Libema Open at the beginning of June against Ekaterina Alexandrova and at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in April against Iga Swiatek.
Moderate record of 33:21 in calendar year 2022
Sabalenka’s 2-1 triumph over the Polish world number one in the semifinals was all the more surprising as the Belarusian ended Swiatek’s run of 15 straight wins against top-10 players.
In all, it was just the 33rd win in 54 singles of the 2022 season for the 24-year-old, but she could now build on her overall victory at the 2019 WTA Elite Trophy. Should the Belarusian even crown herself world champion now, all the mediocre performance data would be obsolete in the final assessment of the year.
Six break points saved in the semi-finals
Sabalenka is even slightly favoured going into her first final match for one of the biggest titles to be won in tennis. When it comes to Aryna Sabalenka against Caroline Garcia, the odds are very thin in favour of the Belarusian, who was not only convincing on her own serve in the semi-final against Swiatek, which earned her twelve aces.
Defensively, too, the world number seven was almost unbreakable. Sabalenka fended off a total of six break points in the semi-final, scoring 55% of the time against the second serve of the Pole and converting a total of 41 of 82 returns into point wins. Numbers she will have to bring to the court again in the final, though.
Caroline Garcia – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 6
Position in the seedings: 6
The 29-year-old Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia brings her career tally to three Major titles. After her strong year in 2017, which saw her finish eighth in the WTA world rankings and win two WTA 1000 tournaments at the Wuhan Open and the China Open, it took until the current season before Garcia recorded another resounding success.
At the 2022 Western & Southern Open, she beat her current opponent Aryna Sabalenka 2-1 in the semifinals on her way to the title before taking the momentum into the US Open.
Total of three singles titles this season
In Flushing Meadows, the Frenchwoman reached the semifinals of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in her career, where she was defeated by Ons Jabeur 2-0. Nevertheless, Garcia had a series of 13 consecutive singles victories on her record.
The player from Saint-Germain-en-Laye, who also won two minor tournaments in Bad Homburg and Warsaw in the summer of 2022, thus also secured her ticket to the WTA Finals. She already reached the semi-finals here on her debut in 2017 before missing out on qualifying for the year-end tournament again four times in a row.
Won 44 of her 64 singles in 2022
This year, the world number six has gone one step further, as after a strong preliminary round in which she beat Coco Gauff and Daria Kasatkina, the Frenchwoman also prevailed in the semifinals against Maria Sakkari. The 29-year-old won her 44th singles match in 2022 (compared to 20 defeats) in a smooth 2-0 victory.
The Frenchwoman gave the Greek no chance at all in the semifinals with an almost flawless game. A whopping 77% of all first serves resulted in points, while Garcia also hit 21 winners out of play and surrendered only one service game. If she can reproduce those stats in the final, Aryna Sabalenka’s betting on her biggest career win against Caroline Garcia is under a good star.
Aryna Sabalenka – Caroline Garcia Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 2:2
Four times both ladies have faced each other so far and with two wins each, the record between the two players is completely even. After Sabalenka won the first two duels, Garcia has won two in a row
Aryna Sabalenka – Caroline Garcia tip
Both players clearly outgrew themselves in the semifinals recently and asserted themselves remarkably clearly despite their respective underdog roles – both only qualified for the semifinals as group runners-up. Accordingly, it is difficult to make a prediction on the outcome of the final match between Aryna Sabalenka and Caroline Garcia, especially as the form of the day is likely to play a major role.
Also considering that three of the four duels between the two players – including at the Western & Southern Open in the summer – went the full distance of three sets, betting on more than 22.5 games makes the most sense.
