Will Braga make it to the knockout round after all?

SC Braga have a deciding match against Malmö FF. The Portuguese must win the upcoming match against the Swedes, otherwise they will go down to the Conference League. In addition, the team of coach Artur Jorge must hope for the support of Royale Union Saint-Gilloise. The Belgians host Union Berlin on the final matchday and should force at least a draw for Braga to finish the group stage in second place.

Braga are of course the clear favourites. Especially in their own stadium, the Portuguese should walk off the field as winners against Malmö. Sporting won the first leg 2-0 and therefore the betting odds between Braga and Malmö are clearly aligned towards a home win. Last weekend, coach Artur Jorge’s team won 1-0 against Gil Vicente – so the test before the deciding match in the Europa League has been successful.

Malmö have already been eliminated and cannot fight their way out of last place in the group. The Swedes did not pick up a single point in the Europa League and are thus also the clear underdogs on the last matchday. Moreover, the club is in a form hole despite the change of coach at the beginning of September. Under new coach Age Hareide, Malmö have only managed three wins from thirteen games. It therefore seems risky to place a bet on the visitors between Braga and Malmö.

Braga – Statistics & current form

Sporting Braga are currently in third place in Group D. In the current Europa League season, the Portuguese picked up seven points from the first five games. Thus, they have only one chance left. On the last matchday, only a win counts and Braga must also hope for support. Based on goal difference, a draw in the parallel match would be enough to advance if Sporting fulfil their duty. If the worst comes to the worst, Artur Jorge’s team will go to the Conference League.

Braga are in second place in their domestic league and are the closest rivals to Benfica Lisbon. In the Liga Portugal, Braga took 25 points from the first eleven games. So far, Artur Jorge’s team has only lost two league games. After a fourth place in the pre-season, the team seems to have improved considerably and now the Champions League is the big goal. With Sporting Lisbon a little out of form at the moment, there seems to be a great opportunity for Braga.

Braga with huge offensive power

Competitively, Sporting Braga have scored 36 goals in 17 games. This means that the Portuguese score an average of two goals per game. Ricardo Horta and Vitinha in particular are responsible for this strong figure, as the two attacking players together have 23 goal contributions. The Portuguese Ricardo Horta wants to win a ticket for the upcoming World Cup in Qatar with his excellent performances – at the moment the chances are good. Sporting only failed to score in the games against Union Berlin and CD Chaves.

Defensively, the Portuguese are in good shape, conceding only 18 goals in all competitions combined. Artur Jorge’s team is currently nine games without conceding a goal. That means the team only concedes a goal every two games. That will be enormously important for the match against Malmö, because an early deficit could become a big problem for the hosts. Then this game would turn out to be a huge mental challenge.

Predicted line-up of Braga:
Matheus – Silva, Goalkeeper, Oliveira, Sequeira – R. Horta, A. Horta, Al Musrati, Medeiros – Ruiz, Vitinha

Last matches played by Braga:

Europa League Grp. D
04/11/2022 – Braga 2 – 1 Malmö FF

Liga Portugal
31/10/2022 – Gil Vicente 0 – 1 Braga

Europa League Grp. D
27/10/2022 – Union Berlin 1 – 0 Braga

Liga Portugal
22/10/2022 – Estoril 0 – 2 Braga

Cup
16/10/2022 – Felgueiras 1932 1 – 2 Braga

Malmö – Statistics & current form

Malmö are in last place in Group D and therefore cannot progress. Even SC Braga in third place have seven points more on their account. Nevertheless, the Swedes want to say goodbye to this competition in a proper way and will certainly not let themselves be shot down. Since the season is practically over for Malmö, coach Age Hareide will send his best eleven into the race. In the first leg, however, that was not enough for a point either.

Nationally and internationally a disappointment

Malmö FF are seventh in the Allsvenskan with 45 points. With only one matchday left in the Swedish first division, the reigning champions can no longer qualify for international football. It is also certain that Malmö will have to relinquish the crown of Swedish football to BK Häcken. It is thus an absolutely disappointing season for the record champions, as all that remains for them in the coming season is everyday league play and the national cup.

It seems obvious why Malmö could not be as successful this season as they were the year before. Whereas in the pre-season the team still provided the best offence in the league, Malmö is far from that this season. This is also reflected in the Europa League, where only two own goals were scored. This is probably due to the fact that two of the best offensive players, Antonio Colak and Veljko Birmancevic, have left the club.

Defensively, Age Hareide’s team is in good shape, at least in the domestic league. Only three teams (Djurgardens, Hammarby and Kalmar) conceded fewer goals. In the Europa League, however, it is a different story, as Malmö conceded nine goals in their first five games, almost two per match. The Swedes did not go a single game without conceding a goal. This fact speaks for the prediction of a home win between Braga and Malmö.

Predicted line-up of Malmo:
Diawara – Sejdu, Bejimo, Chalus, Hadzikadunic, Rieks – Larsson, Lewicki, Buya Turay, Christiansen – Kiese Thelin

Last matches played by Malmö:

Europa League Grp. D
04/11/2022 – Braga 2 – 1 Malmö FF

Allsvenskan
30/10/2022 – Varbergs BoIS FC 2 – 5 Malmö FF

Europa League Grp. D
27/10/2022 – Malmo FF 0 – 2 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise

Allsvenskan
23/10/2022 – Häcken 2 – 1 Malmö FF

20/10/2022 – Malmö FF 2 – 3 Djurgaarden

Braga – Malmo Direct comparison / H2H balance

The direct comparison between Braga and Malmö only strengthens the prediction of a home win to a limited extent. There has only been one meeting between these two teams and that was won by the hosts 2-0. The Portuguese were clearly superior in the first meeting and only allowed two shots on goal. Malmö deserved at most a goal, but nothing more. It will probably be no different in Braga, a similar result is conceivable.

Braga – Malmö Tip

Due to the starting position, the odds between Braga and Malmö are very one-sided. The Portuguese are the clear favourites in this duel and will win the match with a high probability. Malmö are the clear underdogs and in their current form there is absolutely nothing to be said for the visitors. However, since the odds on a home win are hardly profitable, we have looked around for an alternative that is profitable.

We therefore bet on a win for the hosts between Braga and Malmö with an Asian Handicap of -1.25. Especially because the Portuguese are excellent on the offensive, a similar result as in the first leg seems very likely. Against a weakening Swedish defence, two to three goals are absolutely possible