Do the 05ers beat the home curse?

On Friday, Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln will open the eleventh matchday in the Bundesliga with the Rhineland derby or carnival duel. It’s not carnival yet, but still the mood in the MEWA Arena and especially among the coaches couldn’t be better. Historically, Bo Svensson and Steffen Baumgart are the most successful Bundesliga coaches of their clubs.

Possibly this is also due to the fact that both coaches are extremely strong motivators and always give their all on the touchline. Since the introduction of yellow cards for coaches, Svensson and Baumgart have been in the top two positions in this statistic. So things could also get heated on Friday, and not just on the pitch.

Mainz are in eleventh place in the Bundesliga table with 15 points from ten games. That’s a good average and if they keep up this average of points, the Rheinhessen side will have a carefree season.

However, the Geißböcke are slightly better placed in the rankings. The Effzeh are in seventh position, but have only one more point than the 05ers on their account. Despite the four-place difference, the spectators should see a match of equals and therefore we can well imagine placing a bet on a draw in the encounter between Mainz and Cologne.

Mainz – Statistics & current form

It is quite strange how FSV Mainz perform this season. On the whole, everything is fine, but how the Rheinhessen score is quite extraordinary. All four of their victories this season have come away from home. That means first place in the away table. However, they have not yet won a game at home and Bo Svensson’s team is in last place in the home table.

Can opener Ingvartsen

Goal scorer Jonathan Burkardt has not been fit for action in recent games. In his place, Marcus Ingvartsen has come to the fore. The Dane scored the 1:0 for his team in the last two Bundesliga games at home against Leipzig and in Bremen. Perhaps that is why the odds on another 1:0 from the attacker should be scrutinised in the duel between Mainz and Cologne.

During the week, Mainz were in action in the DFB Cup. To be honest, the match against the regional league team in Lübeck was nothing more than a compulsory task. However, VfB at least proved to be a stubborn opponent. Nevertheless, the Rheinhessen side left no stone unturned in their 3-0 away win. Alexander Hack, Marcus Ingvartsen and Aymen Barkok were the goalscorers.

Maybe Jonathan Burkardt will be able to get a place in the starting eleven again on Friday. In any case, Robin Zentner should again guard the goal for cup keeper Finn Dahmen. Maxim Leitsch, Stefan Bell, Silvan Widmer and Marlon Mustapha will continue to be missing for the Mainz team. On Friday, however, it will be less a question of personnel than of confirming their away form at the MEWA Arena.

Predicted line-up of Mainz:
Zentner – Caci, Hack, Fernandes – Martin, Barreiro, Stach, da Costa – Fulgini, Onisiwo, Ingvartsen – coach: Svensson

Last matches played by Mainz:

DFB Cup
18/10/2022 – Lübeck 0 – 3 Mainz 05

Bundesliga
15/10/2022 – Werder Bremen 0 – 2 Mainz 05

08/10/2022 – Mainz 05 1 – 1 RB Leipzig

01/10/2022 – SC Freiburg 2 – 1 Mainz 05

Friendly club matches
22/09/2022 – Mainz 05 2 – 5 Karlsruher SC

Cologne – Statistics & current form

Whoever sees Steffen Baumgart on the sidelines knows that the coach of the Geißböcke would never allow his team to let themselves down. Cologne’s morale is completely intact. On the other hand, however, there is a certain sleepiness in the early stages. In eight out of ten Bundesliga games, the Effzeh have fallen behind 0:1, but have still managed to score six times afterwards.

Away not optimal lately

Similarly to Mainz, Cologne have also looked better away than at home for a long time. In the first six games away from home, the Rhinelanders remained unbeaten. Most recently, however, they suffered defeats away from home in Gladbach and Belgrade. That at least sounds like there is no need to predict an away win between Mainz and Cologne.

Cologne had a game off during the week because they had to drop out of the DFB Cup in the first round in Regensburg. So Steffen Baumgart’s team played their last game in the Bundesliga last weekend against FC Augsburg. It was a tight affair, but in the end the Geißböcke downed FCA 3:2. Steffen Tigges with a brace and Denis Huseinbasic were successful for the Effzeh.

The Rhineland side’s hospital is still very well stocked. Julian Chabot, Dejan Ljubicic, Mathias Olesen, Jan Thielmann, Dimitrios Limnios, Sebastian Andersson and Tim Lemperle are all out injured. But because the squad was designed for a triple load, Steffen Baumgart has enough personnel options. In addition, the Cologne team should be a bit fresher due to the days off during the week.

Predicted line-up of Cologne:
Schwäbe – Hector, Hübers, Kilian, Schmitz – Martel, Skhiri, Duda, Huseinbasic – Maina, Tigges – Coach: Baumgart

Last matches played by Köln:

Bundesliga
16/10/2022 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 2 Augsburg

Europa Conference League Grp. D
13/10/2022 – Partizan Belgrade 2 – 0 1. FC Köln

Bundesliga
09/10/2022 – Gladbach 5 – 2 1. FC Köln

Europa Conference League Grp. D
07/10/2022 – 1. FC Köln 0 – 1 Partizan Belgrade

Bundesliga
01/10/2022 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 2 Borussia Dortmund

Mainz – Cologne Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

The clash between Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln is still relatively far away from being a classic. In the meantime, however, the two clubs have faced each other in 35 matches. 22 of these games were played in the top flight. In the direct comparison, the Geißböcke are just ahead with 13:12 victories. Nine duels ended in a draw.

In the past five games, Cologne have only lost once against Mainz. Last season, there was a 1-1 draw at home to the 05ers. In the return match, the Effzeh won 3:2 at home. Jonathan Burkardt and Karim Onisiwo even put the Mainzers 2:0 in front. In the last half hour, Ellyes Skhiri, Dejan Ljubicic and Luca Kilian turned the game around with their goals.

Mainz – Cologne tip

It is difficult to give the right prediction for this match. Mainz are still waiting for their first home win this season and are in last position in the Bundesliga home table. Therefore, it doesn’t sound like a three-goal win for the 05ers. However, we can well imagine the Rheinhessen taking the lead at first.

The specialist in recent weeks has been Marcus Ingvartsen. The Geißböcke are used to falling behind. This has happened to Steffen Baumgart’s team in eight out of ten league games.

Despite this, Cologne still scored six times after that. That certainly sounds like at least two goals. It’s conceivable that even more goals will be scored. This match should be predestined for a live bet. However, we have decided to play the low betting odds on goals for both teams between Mainz and Cologne.