Does the Steelers’ slide continue?

The Pittsburgh Steelers, who started with one win and four losses, welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are in a much better position with three wins and two losses. Due to these conditions, it was to be expected that the bookmakers see the guests at a clear advantage and so we find win probabilities of around 80%.

After the overtime win against the Bengals in week one, the Steelers had to digest four defeats in a row. Last week, in the starting debut of rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh put a meagre three points on the scoreboard. Now, the Bucs await with a near-strength defence.

Tampa Bay, led by superstar quarterback Tom Brady, stopped the negative trend of two consecutive losses last week and won against the Atlanta Falcons. They beat the division rivals 21-15, not allowing any points for Atlanta until the beginning of the last quarter.

Besides the Steelers vs. Buccaneers matchup, where the odds are very clearly distributed, there are also much closer matchups on the sixth NFL game day.

Pittsburgh Steelers – Statistics & current form

Kenny Pickett is now expected to get it right! The former quarterback, who played in college for the Pittsburgh Panthers, was selected at No. 20 overall in this year’s NFL Draft. His first game as a starter for Pittsburgh in the NFL, as already mentioned, went pretty wrong. In his home debut as the starting quarterback for the Steelers vs. Buccaneers, we predict it won’t get any easier for him and the offense.

Underperforming

Never before has Pittsburgh had a losing record at the end of a season under head coach Mike Tomlin, and that’s impressive considering the 50-year-old has been at the helm of the franchise since 2007. Under his direction, the team won Super Bowl XLIII in 2009, but the team from the state of Pennsylvania is currently far away from the playoffs, the Super Bowl and a winning record.

The offense, which was largely built by Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada, just isn’t working. With the running game, they are scoring 88.6 yards per game and 3.9 yards per run attempt, both of which are well below the NFL average. Thus, Pittsburgh will have to move the ball via the pass, however, a top-6 defense against the passing game now awaits in the matchup. Between the Steelers and Buccaneers, that makes betting on a big play by the visiting defence, in the form of an interception, very attractive.

If you look at the defensive side, it doesn’t look much better. Pittsburgh’s actually strong defence is currently the third-worst in the league and allows an average of over 400 yards to the opponent. One reason for this is that they can hardly put any pressure on the opposing quarterback since TJ Watt’s injury. Now the possible losses of Wallace, Witherspoon, Edmunds and Fitzpatrick are looming, which would make stopping the Tampa Bay offense nearly impossible.

Key Players:
QB: Kenny Pickett
RB: Najee Harris
WR: Diontae Johnson
TE: Pat Freiermuth
K: Chris Boswell

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Statistics & current form

So far, what the 2020 Super Bowl champions are currently playing is not really rousing. That’s due to a number of factors. Tom Brady is still playing at a high level, but due to injuries, the offense is having a hard time finding a rhythm. That was evident in the last game against the Falcons, when the Bucs held a commanding 21-0 lead midway through the third quarter. Then, when Atlanta started scoring, Tampa Bay had three straight offensive series, gaining six yards twice and three yards once. That made the game more exciting than it needed to be towards the end.

Brady must fix it

The absence of centre Ryan Jenson from the offensive line due to injury is clearly noticeable. It makes them more vulnerable, which makes it extremely difficult for running back Leonard Fournette. Statistically, the Bucs have the second-worst rushing offence after five days, with 66 yards per game. This is also reflected in the average value that Fournette, for example, can run for per play. While in the preseason this was 4.5 yards per play, it is now 0.7 yards lower.

However, due to the weakened defence with which the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a prediction that playmaker Brady will have a strong game is not far-fetched. He continues to shine as one of the best in his field when his offense buys him time, and they will do that at Acrisure Stadium. On top of that, the Bucs’ injury bug is thinning out and he can count on many of his pass receivers again.

We already highlighted the fact that the pass defence is strong in the Steelers section. In addition, the so far maximum average defence will be sufficient against Pittsburgh’s run attempts and that therefore gives little hope for the home side. The bookies put the 16.5 points as the over/under limit for the hosts between Steelers and Buccaneers.

Key Players:
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Leonard Fournette
WR: Mike Evans
TE: Cameron Brate
K: Ryan Succop

Pittsburgh Steelers – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Twelve times Tom Brady has met the Steelers so far and won nine of the duels. However, the superstar has never taken the field against Pittsburgh in a Bucs jersey. The last of only eleven duels so far was four years ago. Back then, the Pennsylvania franchise won, as it has done nine times in total.

Only four times since 1976 have the two teams met in Pittsburgh and only the last meeting in 2014 was won away from home by Tampa Bay. Over 50 points have been scored in each of the last three games, but that is highly unrealistic in the upcoming match.

Pittsburgh Steelers – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tip

Tampa Bay is the clear favourite and rightly so. Pittsburgh currently has too many holes on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. The three points scored last week, despite the quarterback swap, caused the confidence to dwindle. And so, between the Steelers and Buccaneers, we are betting on the home side putting a maximum of 16 points on the scoreboard.

Since the hosts will contribute relatively few points to the total in our forecast, the over/under limit of 44 points on offer rather tempts us to recommend that the mark is not reached.

We expect a clear win for the visitors overall.