Dortmund with the next treble against Sevilla?
Dortmund will get a visit from Sevilla on matchday 4 in the Champions League in Group G. The first leg last week was a clear affair in favour of coach Edin Terzic’s team. The Westphalians defeated the “Sevillistas” away from home with 4:1.
At the same time, the final whistle signalled the end of Julen Lopetegui’s coaching tenure with the Spanish side. His successor Jorge Sampaoli now celebrates his debut in the competition as the new coach of last season’s fourth-placed team in La Liga.
For the match at Signal Iduna Park between Dortmund and Sevilla, the forecast includes a home victory.
Dortmund – statistics & current form
BVB played the top match in the Bundesliga against Bayern Munich at the weekend. The match ended with a 2:2 and the Westphalians showed strong morale. They made up for an interim 0:2 deficit.
Against Sevilla, the home side will also have Gregor Kobel back in goal. The Swiss has been absent for the past seven games due to injury, but he was at least back on the bench for last Saturday’s clash against the record champions.
Against this backdrop, there are now signs of his comeback. Kobel was in strong form before his injury, so his return would undoubtedly be a positive factor for the hosts.
Furthermore, the manner of the point win against the kickers from the Isar means that the mood at the Schwarzgelben is currently very good and their self-confidence has received a new boost after the previous defeat against Cologne in league action.
BVB are stable in the top flight
The runners-up are also on course in the Champions League. With two wins and one defeat against the high-flyers from Manchester City, the chances of staying in the top flight are very good.
Especially the offensive has been strong in the three group games. They have already scored eight goals. Jude Bellingham deserves special praise.
The Briton scored in all three group games and set up another BVB goal on top! While he is still waiting for his first goal in the Bundesliga, things are going very well for him in the top flight.
Only Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (5) has more goal participations in the current edition of the top flight.
Bellingham can outscore Wayne Rooney
Should he score at least once more, Bellingham would also make history. No British teenager has ever scored more than three goals in the CL – only Wayne Rooney managed three goals at that age in the 2004/05 season when he played for Manchester United.
In view of the home side’s solid attacking performance so far and the visitors’ weak defence, odds on the 1997 Champions League winners to score more than one goal in the clash between Dortmund and Sevilla also make sense.
In addition, bets on goals from the eight-time Bundesliga title holders in both halves of the match appear to be profitable.
Dortmund also like to score before the break
This prediction is supported by the fact that the home side have already scored five goals before half-time – only four teams in the CL who have already scored have a higher percentage than the resulting 62 per cent in terms of the distribution of their own goals!
Predicted line-up of Dortmund:
Kobel – Hummels – Schlotterbeck – Süle – Guerreiro – Bellingham – Can – Özcan – Malen – Brandt – Moukoko
Last matches played by Dortmund:
Bundesliga
08/10/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 2 Bayern Munich
Champions League Grp. G
06/10/2022 – FC Sevilla 1 – 4 Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
01/10/2022 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
17/09/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Schalke 04
Champions League Grp. G
15/09/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
Sevilla – Statistics & current form
The Andalusians have yet to win a game in the Champions League this season. Instead, they have suffered two defeats at the hands of Manchester City and Dortmund, as well as a tired goalless draw at underdogs Copenhagen, who are still looking for their first goal in the competition.
As in the previous year, they are threatened with elimination from the top flight after the group stage. The problems in the defence are again not unexpected.
With the departures of Jules Kounde to Barcelona, the current Spanish league leaders, and Diego Carlos to Aston Villa in the Premier League, the back line has clearly lost quality.
Guests occupy only one relegation place in the Spanish top flight
Sevilla have also suffered a nasty fall in La Liga. They currently occupy only 18th place and thus a relegation spot after eight rounds of matches.
Although they managed a draw against the in-form Bilbao side at the weekend, from an objective point of view the draw was flattering for the team of newly installed coach Jorge Sampaoli.
The Chilean is no stranger to Andalusia, having previously coached the team between 2016 and 2017. The 1946 champions’ attack is also less convincing.
Only Oliver Torres is exempt from this assessment. The Spaniard’s goal last weekend secured the draw against Bilbao for the “Nervionenses” and he has scored in three of the past five league games, accounting for half of the six goals in this flashback.
Sevilla has only registered one goal in the Champions League
The weakness of the visitors’ attack can also be seen in their Expected Goals score of – 2.2 – only Leverkusen have a worse record (-2.3) in the Champions League.
The extremely meagre shot conversion of 4 per cent and the yield of only one goal also fit into the picture of a harmless offensive.
Predicted line-up of Sevilla:
Dmitrovic – Nianzou – Marcao – Telles – Montiel – Jordan – Gudelj – Torres – Isco – Dolberg – Papu Gomez
Last matches played by Sevilla:
La Liga
08/10/2022 – Sevilla FC 1 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
Champions League Grp. G
06/10/2022 – Sevilla FC 1 – 4 Borussia Dortmund
La Liga
01/10/2022 – Sevilla FC 0 – 2 Atletico Madrid
18/09/2022 – Villarreal FC 1 – 1 Sevilla FC
Champions League Grp. G
15/09/2022 – FC Copenhagen 0 – 0 FC Sevilla
Dortmund – Sevilla Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
The teams have faced each other five times in the Europa and Champions League so far. Only the first encounter in September 2010 ended with a victory for the “Rojiblancos”.
Subsequently, BVB recorded two wins against the six-time UEFA Cup and Europa League winners and twice the points were shared.
Dortmund – Sevilla Tip
Borussia will be very motivated against the Spaniards. With a home win, they would take a huge step towards the round of 16. While the performances in the Bundesliga have been bumpy, the home side have also been convincing in the Champions League so far.
Two victories and only a narrow defeat at Manchester City allow this judgement. The highly emotional moment with strong “Malaga vibes” last weekend, when the equaliser against Bayern came at the end of injury time, has also strengthened the cohesion within the home team.
The forecast for the clash between Dortmund and Sevilla therefore includes a home win.
The “Blanquirrojos” are in a battered condition, having already lost 4-1 to BVB in the first leg a week ago and only occupying third-last place in the domestic league.
Moreover, the Westphalians can rely on the home bonus: They have won both of their past two home games in the competition to nil, while also marking no fewer than eight goals.
