Will Wilson cook off Matty Ice?
“Let Russ Cook” is a catchphrase that dates back to his days with the Seahawks. But since Russell Wilson has been active with the Denver Broncos, it seems he has to bake rather – and smaller rolls.
Against the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday, however, a third win of the season is urgently needed as a fierce three-way battle for the division crown emerges in the AFC West. Even the Raiders can now hope again after their first win on Sunday.
The Indianapolis Colts are still lagging behind expectations, having only managed one win this season. Neither their newly formed offence around Matt Ryan nor their defence are really working.
With star running back Jonathan Taylor out for Thursday’s game, our prediction for the Broncos vs. Also, both teams should have real trouble scoring in this game, which makes for a low-scoring game.
Kickoff of this Thursday Night Game of Week 5 is on Friday night at 02:15 in Denver. The game can be watched live on DAZN.
Denver Broncos – Statistics & current form
As great as the anticipation was for Russell Wilson in Denver, so great is the current disillusionment that there was not this 180° turnaround in the Mile High City. One player can’t solve all the problems of the past at once.
Their defence in particular is doing everything to set the tone for victory. With just 284.8 yards allowed (NFL rank: 4) and 17.0 points per game (NFL rank: 5), Wilson has exactly the foundation that he had for years in Seattle.
Javonte Williams drops out
But it’s the offense that’s causing the most problems this season. The Broncos now have another stone thrown at their feet, as their best running back by far, Javonte Williams, will be out for the rest of the season with a torn cruciate ligament.
True backup Melvin Gordon III, while a big name, is running far short of his top form this season. Against the Raiders, he suffered his fourth fumble in the fourth game, which even earned him a few boos.
This already raises the question of who should take over the running game in Denver. It could come down to Mike Boone, who has only scored three runs this season. In this respect, we still see numerous question marks hanging over the franchise at this position.
Wilson all the more challenged
This should put even more pressure on Russell Wilson to single-handedly shoulder the offence on Thursday. He should get support from a somewhat riskier play calling. Up to now, this has been more like “caution 2.0” and Wilson only got very few chances for his deep passes.
This caution should now be shelved. In our opinion, it will be, which is why a bet on the Broncos is a good option for Denver vs. Indianapolis. Low total points or low field goals are also good options.
Key Players:
QB: Russell Wilson
RB: Melvin Gordon III
WR: Courtland Sutton
WR: Jerry Jeudy
K: Brandon McManus
Indianapolis Colts – stats & current form
Two weeks ago in our article we wondered where the Indianapolis Colts were headed. We still haven’t received a proper answer since then. Because after a fighting victory against the Chiefs, there was another step backwards the following Sunday.
The 17:24 home defeat against the Titans was another offensive disaster. Not quite as bad as the 0:24 in Jacksonville, but a functioning offense definitely looks different.
What will Indy do without Jonathan Taylor?
If the Broncos already have a rushing problem with Williams out, the Colts can only laugh about that problem. They have Jonathan Taylor, one of, if not the best running back in the NFL, out for Thursday.
A look at the numbers illustrates just how problematic that could become. Against Tennessee, Taylor managed 42 rushing yards, but the rest of the team negative-4 yards the run. They have an acceptable backup in Nyheim Hines, but he is absolutely not a No. 1 running back.
He works more as a complement to a “breaker” or as a pass receiver. We’re assuming Indianapolis won’t be able to top 50 rushing yards again on Thursday – which greatly minimizes their chances of winning in the first place.
Both teams without a running game?
This could make for a very unusual game on Thursday, where the majority of plays will be passes. That in turn brings some new betting options into play. Betting on interceptions, few rushing yards and touchdowns or lots of passes thrown.
So for Broncos vs Colts, odds on individual players like Mo Alie-Cox or Courtland Sutton scoring a touchdown are also a serious option. Alie-Cox, for example, scored two of them recently against the Titans.
Key Players:
QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Nyheim Hines
WR: Michael Pittman Jr.
TE: Mo Alie-Cox
K: Chase McLaughlin
Denver Broncos – Indianapolis Colts Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The last meeting in 2019 went 15-13 to the Colts and a similarly contested as well as low-scoring game could unfold again on Thursday. With all the breakdowns, it does beg the question of who is going to score points in the first place.
However, with the passing game likely to be at the forefront, the game could be very drawn out, which in turn makes betting on under-scoring dangerous, as teams will eventually be able to score on enough attempts.
Thus, for Denver against Indianapolis, betting on a Mo Alie-Cox touchdown is our favoured option. He has been regularly sought after by Matt Ryan lately and could play an important role again on Thursday.
Denver Broncos – Indianapolis Colts Tip
Betting on the Broncos or not after all? Given the expected tough game, anything could happen on Thursday. Plus, the Broncos have already disappointed us and many other experts so many times that we would put bets on victory at the back.
We get much better value on touchdown bets. So for Broncos vs Colts, betting odds on a Mo Alie-Cox touchdown are our No.1 betting option, followed by betting on a Courtland Sutton touchdown. Both players were already successful last weekend.
As an alternative, we see betting on subpar points. Although the game might take a little longer, the 43.5 set is a number that should be hard to beat.
