Brady vs. Mahomes – Who will win the mega battle?

Brady vs. Mahomes – and we immediately remember some hot duels of the last years. Not least Super Bowl 2021, where the two also met for the last time so far. Overall, Brady leads the duel with his potential successor by 3:2.

On Sunday, however, the conditions are a little different, as the Buccaneers are one of the teams with the biggest injury worries in the NFL at the moment. In addition to centre Ryan Jensen, who is out for the entire season, Godwin, Jones, Smith and Hicks are also on the fence for this matchup.

Aside from Hicks, all of the possible absences involve Tom Brady’s offense, which was already on display against the Packers when the Bucs put just 12 points on the scoreboard. The Chiefs are much more relaxed at the moment – despite the last defeat against the Colts.

However, with Kansas City having less to worry about in terms of personnel, our prediction for Sunday’s Buccaneers vs. Chiefs is an away win for Mahomes and Co. who should also be able to even up their record against the GOAT.

Start of this top duel of NFL Week 4 is Sunday night at 02:20 in Tampa. The game can be watched live on DAZN.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Statistics & current form

12:14 vs Green Bay. And just as disjointed as that result feels by NFL standards, so was the game. The Bucs offense, in particular, never got rolling. In the end, Brady threw a single touchdown to Russell Gage.

The unknown wide receiver, however, could already be seen as Brady’s top option in the offence. At least for Sunday, Mike Evans, a first-team wide receiver, returns to the field after his suspension.

Godwin, Jones and Hicks very questionable

With Chris Godwin and Julio Jones, however, two other very good wide receivers are very likely to remain out on Sunday. They are also joined by Akiem Hicks, one of their most important cornerstones on defence. That, too, should not be unimportant against Pat Mahomes.

So the Buccaneers are still in scramble mode, as they have been all season. It’s odd to find this team among the weakest ten offenses in the league. They currently rank 24th league-wide with just 17.0 points per game.

Defence must fix it again

Although we’re expecting a few more points against Kansas City, we’re not expecting an absolute 55+ point high scoring game. Accordingly, the bookmakers are also betting very low at 45.0. However, at least this number should be exceeded.

However, we see the Chiefs in particular as the point drivers here, who should get back on track after their weak game against Indy. Especially since the Bucs should be on the field much longer with their defence due to the lack of offence.

Towards the end of the game, their defence could get tired and Pat Mahomes could benefit. Thus, Bucs vs Chiefs odds are slightly more recommended on Kansas City, even with a handicap of up to -3 or -4 points.

Key Players:
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Leonard Fournette
WR: Mike Evans
TE: Cameron Brate
K: Ryan Succop

Kansas City Chiefs – Statistics & current form

Surprise. That’s how you could describe the Chiefs’ defeat at the Indianapolis Colts, who had been extremely weak up to that point. But the Chiefs brought this defeat on themselves with many lack of concentration and mistakes.

A fumble here, a missed field goal there and in the end an interception by Pat Mahomes. So it will be difficult against an underestimated Colts team. But one thing is for sure: The Bucs will not underestimate them on Sunday.

Mahomes always extra motivated against Brady

Why we see the Chiefs ahead against Tampa is also for a very simple reason: Pat Mahomes. As disjointed as he sometimes is against underdogs, he is always so focused against the league’s top guns. Apart from the Super Bowl 2021, where he was unable to show his performance at any time.

But otherwise, matchups with Brady always do him good. Even in the first 2018 matchup of these two, which Brady narrowly won 43-40 with the Pats at the time. But it was already clear that Mahomes loves this matchup.

So he went on to win two of the next three duels and will be especially hot to even his record against the GOAT in what will probably be their last meeting. It would be a special feeling for him to send Brady into retirement with an even 3:3 record.

Defence better than its reputation

Last year, Kansas City started as one of the weakest defenses through the first few days of play. Since then, that reputation that their defense is “crap” has persisted. But statistically, that’s not true at all. This season they are conceding 314.0 yards, the tenth fewest in the NFL.

They are also allowing an average of just 21.7 points – a thoroughly respectable figure. Against a banged-up Bucs offence, they should be in good enough shape again on Sunday that their offence, led by a fired-up Mahomes, can take care of the rest.

Thus, for Buccaneers vs. Chiefs, a bet on Kansas City -3 is our bet of choice. Half-time/final score bets on them are still good too, as the Bucs haven’t exactly started well lately.

Key Players:
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
WR: Juju Smith-Schuster
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Harrison Butker

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Kansas City Chiefs Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

These two teams have only met twice in the last five years. In that time, with both Mahomes and Brady on the field, the record is an even 1-1. Before these two took the helm of their franchises, the Buccaneers won a full five in a row.

However, the Brady vs. Mahomes record is actually more meaningful here, as we can easily compare the Buccaneers’ current strength to that of the former Patriots. With one exception: their current injury woes.

These make the pendulum swing strongly to the side of the Chiefs in this duel. The bookmakers know this, too, which is why they also see the away team as the favourites. Nevertheless: For Tampa Bay vs. Kansas City, a tip on the Chiefs -3 is still a good value bet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Kansas City Chiefs Tip

Were both teams to field their best lineups, it would be a duel of absolute equals. Without his important receivers, however, even a Tom Brady is human, which we have already seen against the Packers. The last-minute signing of Cole Beasley didn’t help either.

This makes the odds on Kansas City better for Buccaneers vs Chiefs. Chiefs -3 is our betting recommendation here, although a combination of Chiefs + Over points is also an option, as the bookies are setting a very low 45.5 points here.

Bet odds on a Juju Smith-Schuster touchdown are an interesting alternative between the Bucs and Chiefs. The wide receiver is already at 14 receptions this season, but still without a touchdown. However, if he continues to be sought after by Mahomes, it’s only a matter of time before he scores as well.