Will Tua and the Dolphins also prevail in Cincinnati?

Burrow vs. Tua or even preseason surprise team vs. this season’s surprise team. That’s the premise when the Cincinnati Bengals host the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night.

There is exactly one team left in the AFC that is undefeated and it’s not the Chiefs or the Bills, it’s the Dolphins. But it’s taken a sensational comeback against Baltimore and a wild finish against Buffalo to get to a 3-0 record.

The Bengals, on the other hand, have rather stuttered into this season, not picking up their first win of the season until last Sunday against the Jets. However, both defence and offence (especially the O-line) seemed so much improved that they should now give Miami a duel on a par.

Our forecast for Bengals vs. Dolphins is a tough battle in which no team will be able to pull away. Winning bets are therefore not that easy, which is why we also consider betting on subpar points in this matchup to be a favoured betting option. However, if Tua Tagovailoa is out, then a Bengals win should be on the cards.

Start of the fourth Thursday Night Game of the season is Friday night at 02:15 in Cincinnati. The game can be watched live on DAZN.

Cincinnati Bengals – Statistics & current form

The Bengals finally got their first win of the season, even if it was “only” against the New York Jets. But even against them, you first have to win by 15 points.

Compared to the first two weeks, the team of head coach Zar Taylor looked much more solid. Defensively, they held their opponents to less than 15 points for the first time and offensively they hardly made any mistakes. A fumble by Chase was the only loss of the ball in this game.

O-Line with clear progress

One other thing that stood out: The O-Line was able to properly protect quarterback Joe Burrow for the first time, allowing a good two sacks by their standards. Before that, they had 13 sacks in just two games. If they can maintain that protection, wins will follow on their own.

Burrow is one of the best and most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL. 275 yards, three touchdowns and a passer rating of 114.9 speak volumes here. However, the newfound strength will be put to the test again against a good Fins defence.

Which defence will leave its mark on the game?

So, in fact, it’s not Tua Tagovailoa or Joe Burrow that we should be focusing on on Thursday either, but the defensive lines. In the last seven games, low-scoring games have occurred six times and scoring festivals only once.

The recent improvement in the Bengals defence and the importance of the game again suggest that the focus of both teams will initially be on defence. After all, the Dolphins also held the “over” Bills to only 19 points.

We see both defenses as absolutely on par and in good form. Thus, a bet on under 47.5 total points for Cincinnati vs. Miami is a bet where we do not have to think twice to make a recommendation. In fact, we see this number as being significantly too high.

Key Players:
QB: Joe Burrow
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: Ja’Marr Chase
TE: Hayden Hurst
K: Evan McPherson

Miami Dolphins – stats & current form

In the previous week, we wondered how good the Dolphins really were. They gave us the answer on Sunday night in a rousing game against the Bills, who had been so outstanding up to that point. The final score was 21:19 per Miami, who are now 3-0.

The Fins are one of only three teams still undefeated, in the AFC they are even the only franchise without a defeat. Still, this win (like the one against the Ravens) hung by a thread and was also aided by numerous missed opportunities by the Bills.

The defence delivers

But the fact that Josh Allen and the Bills got nervous at all and made some bad decisions was due to the Dolphins’ defence. Allen was sacked four times and forced four fumbles, one of which was saved in the end.

So it was the defence that won this game, not their offence. In the entire game, the offence only managed 212 total yards. Actually, that’s a number you can’t win a pot of money with – let alone an NFL game.

The poor offensive performance was compounded by the shock of Tua Tagovailoa. He seemed to have to leave the game for a short time with a concussion, before he was surprisingly cleared again. It will be important to see how his condition develops during the week.

Where is the running game?

But the main problem with this very ineffective offense on Sunday was definitely the running game. Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Co. got a total of 41 rushing yards on the field – another number that is not normally enough for success.

Even in the outstanding points festival against the Ravens the week before, they only managed 86 yards, which means that the Dolphins currently have the second-worst running game in the entire league with 64.0 yards per game. This is where they need to start in order to lighten the load on their defence.

Nevertheless, a win against the Bengals is also possible with such a defensive performance as against the Bills. However, betting on this is not an option due to Tua’s uncertainty. For Bengals vs Dolphins, the odds on Under 47.5 points or on the Bengals are therefore somewhat more promising.

Key Players:
QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB: Chase Edmonds
WR: Tyreek Hill
TE: Mike Gesicki
K: Jason Sanders

Cincinnati Bengals – Miami Dolphins Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The last seven duels have all been relatively even, although the record here is 5-2 in favour of the Dolphins. However, two of those seven duels also went into overtime and the others were not blowout victories either.

We do not expect a clear-cut result for this Thursday either. The betting odds already say that. Due to their recent defensive performance, we see Miami slightly ahead, but if Tua still has after-effects from his knock-out on Sunday, this advantage will turn completely around.

In that respect, total points are our salvation in this matchup. In six of the last seven games, the 44 total points were not exceeded, a whole three times they even remained at 30 points or less.

The projected 47.0 – 47.5 points are therefore already due to the Dolphins’ high-scoring game against the Ravens last week. However, since that is most likely not going to happen again, betting on under-scoring is a good betting option for Bengals vs Dolphins.

Cincinnati Bengals – Miami Dolphins Tip

We have now praised both teams’ defensive lines so much in this article, so it would be negligent to bet on a high-scoring game. Although both teams can really step on the gas offensively, Thursday Night Games in particular are not known for that.

The scores tend to be rather poor. So for Bengals vs. Dolphins, the odds on under 47.5 total points are a great chance for excellent value. Best to even combine these with a Bengals win.

Scoring bets are also an option in this duel, for example on a Jaylen Waddle touchdown. He’s already scored three touchdowns this season and with the Fins’ running game stumbling, he could see quite a few targets again Thursday.