Will the reigning champs prevail in Buffalo for the start?’
Rumble in the Jungle – but this time in the sun of California, when two of the absolute heavyweights of the league meet at the start of the new NFL season: the Los Angeles Rams and the Buffalo Bills. Two of the four top favourites for the Super Bowl – fans could hardly have wished for a better matchup.
The reigning champion from Los Angeles is not even the favourite, however, as the Buffalo Bills are also the biggest contender for the throne in the 2022/2023 NFL season thanks to an excellent off-season.
The two quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen will certainly be at the centre of the game. Allen in particular is expected to have a say in the MVP award this season. It will be exciting to see if he can make a statement right away.
All in all, we see the Bills slightly ahead. Last year they had the best defence and the third-best offence. Therefore, our prediction for Los Angeles vs. Buffalo is a close opening win for the Bills, who would also confirm their title ambitions.
The start of this year’s NFL Kickoff Game is on Thursday night at 02:20 in Los Angeles. The game can be seen live on ProSieben as well as on ran.de and DAZN.
Los Angeles Rams – Statistics & current form
The reigning champions start the new NFL season at home and are not considered the favourites. That’s already extremely unusual. But with the Buffalo Bills they got the toughest opponent they can imagine to start the season.
The last time a reigning Super Bowl winner lost the opening game of the season was in 2017, when the New England Patriots lost to Pat Mahomes and his Chiefs. It’s a similar giants’ duel and so it could be for the Rams this year.
Do the Rams have some championship fatigue?
That champions in the top US leagues take a certain fatigue into the new season is not a new finding. It’s not for nothing that it’s rare for a team to successfully defend its title. In the NFL, we have to look back to 2005, when the New England Patriots managed to do so.
But does that also apply to the first game of the season in front of their own fans? At least the Rams’ stars should be rested, as head coach Sean McVay is considered a proponent of resting all starters in the preseason, which he has done again this year.
Thus, for Matthew Stafford as well as for Cam Akers, Cooper Kupp or Tyler Higbee, it is their very first appearance this season. Injuries have been avoided, but whether the team is already properly rehearsed is another matter.
Running game needs to get better
If there was one thing at all about the Rams last year that could be criticised, it was their running game. Their 1683 yards (99 per game) here was only the 25th best in the entire league. So every off-day by Matthew Stafford inevitably led immediately to a bust.
Of course, this was also due to the fact that Cam Akers was out for large parts of the season, but nevertheless, tactical adjustments must be made here to support Stafford. After all, he’s not getting any younger.
Since the Bills had the best defence against the pass last year, we see clear matchup disadvantages on LA’s side. Thus, for Rams vs. Bills, the odds on Josh Allen and Co. are to be favoured from a betting-bite perspective.
Key Players:
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Cam Akers
WR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Tyler Higbee
K: Matt Gay
Buffalo Bills – stats & current form
The Bills are considered the top favourites to win the Super Bowl. Is that justified? Especially if we take their performances towards the end of last season and also in the playoffs, then we can absolutely go with them here. In addition, they also got strong new signings.
With running back James Cook and wide receiver Jamison Crwoder, they were able to significantly improve their offence, especially in depth. However, their main piece of the puzzle for an even stronger Bills team came from, of all places, Thursday’s rival, the Rams: linebacker Von Miller.
Von Miller plays against his ex-team
Even though Miller is now 33 years old, his experience on and off the field could be just the player Buffalo has been missing. They were one of the youngest teams last year and sometimes failed simply because of a lack of experience.
Miller absolutely brings that, along with a basic explosiveness that led the Rams to the Super Bowl last year. Miller will also be extremely motivated against his former teammates. As long as that doesn’t translate into penalties, that’s another advantage for the Bills.
Defense Wins Games
The main reason we see the Bills ahead on Thursday is clearly their defence. They allowed only 272.8 yards per game last year – by far the best value of all teams. The Rams, for example, had 344.9 yards per game.
They also lost Von Miller, while the Bills gained him. So it’s a simple calculation – at least as far as the defence is concerned. For Rams vs. Bills, a bet on Buffalo with a handicap of up to -3 points is absolutely recommended.
Key Players:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Dawson Knox
K: Tyler Bass
Los Angeles Rams – Buffalo Bills Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The duel of the Rams against the Bills is rather rare in the NFL due to the different Conferences. The last time Buffalo beat LA 35:32 at home was in 2020. At that time, however, Jared Goff was still at the helm at the QB position on the Rams’ side.
Overall, the Rams have been very good to the Bills over the last two decades. Thus, the record since the turn of the millennium is 4:1 in favour of Buffalo. The Bills’ QB also leads the head-to-head duel Stafford vs. Allen 1-0.
This will be only the second head-to-head meeting between these two playmakers on Thursday. Buffalo always has a slight edge in these stats as well and it confirms us to favour the odds on the away team in Rams vs Bills.
Los Angeles Rams – Buffalo Bills Tip
It’s the little things that will decide Thursday night. So, of course, Buffalo’s slightly better defence and Josh Allen’s slight advantage over Matthew Stafford in the running department stand out (2021: 763 to 43 yards).
The Rams are the slightly better team through the air, but this is exactly the Bills’ absolute strength defensively. Therefore, for the Rams vs. Bills matchup, a low handicap bet on Buffalo is our No.1 betting recommendation.
As an alternative, we see over-points on this duel. The last two NFL Kickoff Games where two of the top teams met head-to-head ended with 67 total points in 2017 (Pats vs. Chiefs) and 60 total points last year (Bucs vs. Cowboys). Over 51.5 points should be surpassed on Thursday, according to the report. Corresponding Rams vs. Bills betting odds promise a reasonable value.
