Will the promoted team score for the first time?
The second matchday in the Spanish top flight will be concluded on Monday evening with two games. Football treats are not to be expected, however, as all four teams will probably find themselves in the lower half of the table this season. Moreover, the teams each conceded a defeat on matchday one. The 8pm game is the clash between Elche and promoted Almeria at the Manuel Martinez Valero Stadium.
Although both teams started the season without anything worth counting, the two performances cannot really be compared. Elche, a team from the autonomous region of Valencia, conceded a fully deserved 3-0 defeat at Betis Sevilla. The Andalusian promoted team was anything but without a chance in its home match against champions Real Madrid. Despite taking the lead, their strong performance was not rewarded with points, leaving them with a 2-1 defeat in the final standings.
Although the Andalusians’ performance last week was far more impressive than that of the home side, Elche are considered surprisingly clear favourites against Almeria by the bookmakers according to current betting odds. A home win is rated at 2.45, while a win for the visitors attracts as much as 3.20.
Elche – Statistics & current form
The last few years have been a rollercoaster for fans of the club founded in 1923. In 2014/15, despite finishing in 13th place, the club was forced to accept relegation due to financial liabilities, and two years later they were only playing in the third division. Since 2020/21, Elche have been back in the top flight and last season, under head coach Francisco Rodriguez, they once again finished 13th in the Spanish top flight.
Early red card makes for horror start
The new season also began for Elche against a team from Andalusia and their guest appearance at Betis Sevilla could not have gone any worse. Youngster John Nwankwo, right back in the three-man backline, had to leave the pitch after just 16 minutes due to an emergency foul. This was a disservice to his team and Elche were completely without a chance. The 0:3 score was basically flattering. Elche had a meagre 28 per cent of possession throughout the game, and the shooting ratio was just as one-sided at 17:4.
Diego Gonzalez will replace youngster Nwankwo in the starting line-up for the clash with Almeria. Otherwise, Barcelona loanee Diego Collado and the most expensive summer addition Ezequiel Ponce (who was signed for four million euros after a loan spell) could possibly slide into the starting eleven. All in all, however, Elche certainly do not have a squad that is clearly superior to Almeria.
However, the home side at least has a decent home record, which last year was very narrowly positive with seven wins, six draws and six defeats. However, these statistics are not enough to recommend betting on the home side between Elche and Almeria.
Predicted line-up of Elche:
Badia – Roco, Bigas, Gonzalez – Mojica, Mascarell, Collado, Palacios – Fidel, Ponce, Milla
Last matches played by Elche:
La Liga
16/08/2022 – Real Betis 3 – 0 Elche
Club friendlies
07/08/2022 – La Nucia 0 – 3 Elche
02/08/2022 – UD Ibiza 1 – 0 Elche
31/07/2022 – Cartagena 2 – 0 Moose
27/07/2022 – Elche 1 – 0 Getafe
Almeria – Statistics & current form
While Elche can’t make big leaps financially, money plays only a minor role for the Andalusian promoted side. UD Almeria is owned by the Saudi Arabian sheik Turki Al-Sheikh, who is not only very generous to the football club, but also tries to have a positive effect on the population by opening a new discotheque and making generous donations.
Promotion as an intermediate step, Europe as a goal
As early as 2019, he took over the club and at the time issued a target to be represented internationally this year. In the first few years, the project did not go according to plan, but he did not lose his patience and after seven years of abstinence, Almeria are now playing in the top flight again. Nevertheless, promotion is only an interim goal, because qualification for Europe is the clear objective for the next few years.
The available money is not invested in ageing stars, but rather Almeria has a relatively young team that is equipped with a lot of talent. The top star is Umar Sadiq, who played a big part in their promotion last season with 18 goals and twelve assists. Villarreal would like to sign the Nigerian, but are still deterred by the 50 million euro price tag.
But it is not only the offensive that is convincing. On the way to promotion, Almeria conceded only 35 goals in 42 league games. Fernando Pacheco, a strong new number one, was signed a fortnight ago. The goal of Europe in 2022/23 is probably still unrealistic, but the fight against relegation is probably not an issue either. The team tends to be one step above Elche, so the prediction between Elche and Almeria is for an away win or a Draw No Bet 2.
Predicted line-up of Almeria:
Pacheco – Akieme, Kaiky, Ely, Babic, Chumi – Robertone, Costa – Eguaras – Ramazani, Sadiq
Last matches played by Almeria:
La Liga
15/08/2022 – Almeria 1 – 2 Real Madrid
Club friendlies
07/08/2022 – Al Hilal 2 – 1 Almeria
06/08/2022 – Almeria 1 – 0 Cartagena
30/07/2022 – Almeria 2 – 3 Granada
30/07/2022 – Almeria 1 – 1 Malaga
Elche – Almeria Direct comparison / H2H balance
There have only been four duels between the two sides in the Spanish top flight (2013/14 and 2014/15). The last league games were played in the second-tier LaLiga2 in 2019/20, with the last encounter taking place in the Copa del Rey last year. In general, the direct comparison is slightly negative from Elche’s point of view, as eight of the 29 previous games have been won, while Almeria have been able to celebrate eleven times.
Elche – Almeria tip
If Elche are to secure their place in the league this season, home strength will once again be of great importance. In games against a promoted team, points are almost a must, but the low odds on a home win for Elche against Almeria are incomprehensible. Elche are certainly stronger at home, but Almeria are definitely not underdogs given their higher quality and good performance on matchday 1.
With the attacking duo Sadiq/Ramazani (scorer against Real), the visitors have an offence that provides a scoring threat at any time. But the strong defence is also an advantage over Elche, who are a compact team without having any particular strengths.
However, Elche are certainly stronger at home than away, which brings a risk when betting on the away win. However, odds of over 3.00 still have value. However, since we do not consider Almeria as underdogs, the odds on Draw No Bet 2 between Elche and Almeria are also very interesting with a 2.20. Here, a bet of six units is recommended. Here, a bet of six units is recommended.
