With the body in Frankfurt, with the head in Hungary?
As a Cologne supporter, you had to be long-suffering on Thursday evening. The European adventure of the cathedral cities in the Conference League started perfectly in the play-off first leg against the Hungarian club Fehervar. The favourites took a 1-0 lead early on, but then weakened themselves with a sending-off and lost 2-1 in the end, despite having an overwhelming advantage. Baumgart’s side therefore have their backs to the wall ahead of next week’s second leg.
The upcoming Bundesliga match in the German banking metropolis therefore comes at a really inopportune time. Physically and mentally tired Rhinelanders take on a highly motivated Eintracht, who are desperate to get their first three points of the new season after a rather weak start to the season.
Apart from that, there are many indications that we will see a goal or two on Sunday afternoon at Deutsche Bank Park. Both teams still struggled with defensive weaknesses on the first few matchdays. Moreover, after five consecutive encounters between these clubs in the Bundesliga in which the 2.5 goal mark has never been broken, it is time for a spectacle again. At least three goals in the course of the match is our second prediction between Frankfurt and Cologne, based on a subjective gut feeling.
Frankfurt – statistics & current form
If the current situation at Eintracht Frankfurt were to be overdramatised or at least played up in a martial-emotional way, a headline like “The rats are leaving the sinking ship” would not be so wrong, albeit expressed in a colloquial way at most. In essence, however, this statement is true, because after the career end of Martin Hinteregger, the departure of Filip Kostic, who signed with Juventus, the loss of Evan Ndicka now also looms. The French centre-back is being courted by Milan and is desperate to leave the Europa League winners this summer.
At the moment, the Hesse club cannot shine with internal calm. This also has an effect on the sporting performance of Glasner’s team, because with the exception of the 4:0 victory in the DFB Pokal, the SGE is still waiting for its first match win. In the league, there was the much-cited 1:6 defeat at home to Bayern and a less than satisfactory 1:1 draw at Berlin Hertha. In the third attempt, the first real sense of achievement is finally to come. It would also be the first win in the Bundesliga after a season-long run of ten matches without a win. Only in 1983/84 did the Eagles remain without a win in the Bundesliga for a longer period – 16 matches back then.
Many open construction sites at the SGE
Hope for a trend reversal at the weekend is the good home record of the last few years against the “Effzeh”. Five of the past seven games in front of a home crowd have been victorious in the Bundesliga. Against no other club did Eintracht record more points on average per home game (2.3) during this period.
However, it is also clear that the Champions League participants must improve both offensively and defensively. Daichi Kamada and Co. only fired three meagre shots on goal in the first two matchdays. Seven goals conceded, on the other hand, is a historically poor figure. However, one should not hang these numbers too high, as many statistics are primarily based on the disastrous performance against FC Bayern and such a performance will certainly not be repeated in the second home match of the season.
Due to the available potential, the actually existing home strength and the very concentrated training week, we still prefer a tip on the home side between Frankfurt and Cologne, who could benefit from a battered opponent. Touré, Onguené and Buta are out injured. Luca Pellegrini could make his debut on the left. Offensively, coach Glasner is spoilt for choice with Kolo Muani, Borre or Alario starting. There is no shortage of options on the bench either.
Predicted Frankfurt line-up:
Trapp – Tuta, Hasebe, Ndicka – Rode, Sow – Knauff, Pellegrini – Lindström, Kamada – Kolo Muani
Last matches played by Frankfurt:
Bundesliga
13/08/2022 – Hertha BSC 1 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
UEFA Super Cup
11/08/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga
06/08/2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 6 Bayern Munich
DFB Cup
02/08/2022 – Magdeburg 0 – 4 Eintracht Frankfurt
Friendly club matches
27/07/2022 – FCA Walldorf 0 – 5 Eintracht Frankfurt
Cologne – Statistics & current form
For a year, 1. FC Köln has been working towards finally getting a taste of European Cup air again. Now the play-offs are threatened with a premature knockout. If the Rhinelanders do not win the second leg against Fehervar FC, coached by Michael Boris, next Thursday, their adventure on the international stage will be over before it has really begun.
Although Steffen Baumgart stood up after the disappointing 1-2 home defeat in the first leg and said that the complete focus was on the Frankfurt game, the second leg next week will subconsciously have a firm place in all the players’ (back) minds. Against this background, we are anything but convinced that the Domstädter will be able to take something countable with them at Deutsche Bank Park. For us, in any case, the odds on a home win between Frankfurt and Cologne contain the far more appealing value.
How does Cologne perform against eleven men?
And that despite the solid start to the season of last year’s seventh-placed team. The “Effzeh” have already registered four points. A 3:1 home win against Schalke on the first matchday was followed by a respectable point at RB Leipzig (2:2). In both cases, however, the Geißböcke benefited from a prolonged period of being outnumbered. It is therefore not yet possible to assess their true performance against an opponent who is on the pitch for 90 minutes with eleven players. The Baumgart team should therefore not be overestimated.
Speaking of Baumgart: The cult coach has been on the sidelines in four matches against Eintracht Frankfurt so far and has managed to score seven points with his teams. In two attempts in the German financial capital, however, only one point has been scored.
Florian Dietz – a new star in the “Effzeh” striker sky?
However, the Cologne team seems to be good for at least one or two goals. After two match days, the Rhinelanders not only have the most goals on their account behind FC Bayern, but also have the second-best value for “expected goals” and ball contacts in the opponent’s penalty area. Wait and see is not the credo of the passionate Steffen Baumgart. We expect the visitors to once again play boldly forward and predict three or more goals in the course of the game, similar to the first two match days.
With the exception of Mark Uth, who continues to be bothered with adductor problems, the coach can fall back on all key players. A somewhat larger rotation does not seem out of the question at the end of the first English week. Maina has recommended himself for a start after his substitution. Up front, youngster Dietz will again be preferred to Tigges, after he scored against RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga and against Fehervar in the Conference League.
Predicted line-up of Cologne:
Schwäbe – Schmitz, Kilian, Hübers, Hector – Skhiri – Thielmann, Ljubicic, Kainz – F. Dietz, Adamyan
Last matches played by Köln:
European Conference League Qualification
19/08/2022 – 1. FC Köln 1 – 2 Fehervar FC
Bundesliga
13/08/2022 – RB Leipzig 2 – 2 1. FC Köln
07/08/2022 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 1 Schalke 04
DFB Cup
30/07/2022 – Jahn Regensburg (4)2 – 2(3) 1. FC Köln
Friendly club matches
22/07/2022 – 1. FC Köln 5 – 0 Nijmegen
Frankfurt – Cologne Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
31 wins Eintracht Frankfurt have had against Cologne in the German top flight so far. 22 of these 31 victories have come in front of a home crowd. In recent years, too, the Rhinelanders have not had much to gain in Frankfurt’s Stadtwald. Since 2012/13, five of the past seven home games have gone to the SGE in this constellation.
In the previous season, however, the Adlerträger only recorded one point after the first and second legs. They drew 1-1 at Deutsche Bank Park and won 1-0 at RheinEnergie-Stadion. Given the starting position, we definitely expect more goals on Sunday.
Frankfurt – Cologne tip
If 1. FC Köln had landed a thumping win in the first leg of the Conference League play-offs against Fehervar on Thursday night, they could have travelled to Frankfurt relaxed, without fear that their international adventure would end just a week later. However, that is completely different now. The Baumgart eleven already lost the home match against the underdogs from Hungary and is thus on the verge of elimination.
Of course, this match also has an impact on the upcoming Bundesliga match in the banking metropolis. Although the coach demands that the full focus is on this match, we expect mentally battered Geißböcke, who have a tough game in a short-handed draw in their bones and may already be thinking about the return match next Thursday.
Because the SGE have won five of their last seven home games against the “Effzeh” and are desperate for their first league win after taking a point from their first two games, we have decided to play the betting odds on the home treble between Frankfurt and Cologne.
