Does Zagreb lay the foundation stone in Bulgaria?
Ten reigning national champions have already punched their ticket to the group stage of the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League season. For two other national title holders, the desire to breathe the air in the top flight will also come true. Two potential candidates who have hopes of making it into the 32-team field will now go head-to-head in the third qualifying round of the champions’ route.
Ahead of the first leg between Ludogorez Razgrad and Dinamo Zagreb, the bookmakers’ odds ensure a relatively even starting position. In the first of two matches, no clear favourite can be named.
The fact is that both clubs already had a harder time than expected in the previous qualifying round. Dinamo Zagreb had to settle for a 2-2 draw at home against northern Macedonian underdogs Shkupi and only managed to secure their progress away from home. The Bulgarian champions lost the return leg against Shamrock Rovers 2-1, but benefited from an emphatic home win.
Nevertheless, we are certainly not going too far out on a limb when we predict a competitive affair with few goals, while at the same time making a prediction ahead of the Ludogorez Rasgrad vs. Dinamo Zagreb match that the Croatians will not leave the pitch as losers.
Ludogorez Rasgrad – Statistics & current form
It has been six years since Ludogorez Rasgrad last qualified for the group stage of the UEFA Champions League. In the past five years, they have only managed to reach the Europa League, and only two of those matches went through to the knockout stages. Despite their extensive experience at international level, it would be surprising if the Bulgarian champions were to make it into the main draw of the top flight this time.
In the first leg of the third qualifying round, Ludogorez Rasgrad are already being treated as razor-thin underdogs against Dinamo Zagreb according to the odds, which certainly also has something to do with their recent performance in European business. In the second-round second leg, the Bulgarians suffered a 2-1 defeat at Irish champions Shamrock Rovers and, after going 2-0 down at one stage, were in serious danger of progressing. And this despite the fact that the Green-Whites still had a commanding 3-0 upper hand in their own stadium.
Ludogorez with only two goals conceded in this quali
In general, it must be said that coach Ante Simundza’s team is stronger at home than away. In the previous season, three of the four CL qualifying home matches were won. In the Europa League group stage, however, the eleven-time national champions remained without a win and even without a goal in three attempts at home.
The bare figures do not inspire fear. The good start to the league season with ten points from four matches and twelve goals scored should also not be overestimated. Unlike on the national stage, the Simundza team’s approach in the European Cup is much more wait-and-see. On the other hand, the defence is usually pretty good, which is why we are not averse to betting on sub-par goals in the first leg of the Ludogorez Rasgrad vs Dinamo Zagreb match. In three of the four qualifying games so far, the score has been zero, including in both home games.
Predicted line-up of Ludogorez Rasgrad:
Padt; Cicinho, Verdon, Plastun, Nedyalkov; Santana, Iordanov, Cauly; Despodov, Sotiriou, Rick
Last matches played by Ludogorez Rasgrad:
First Professional League
30/07/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 5 – 0 PFK Spartak Varna
Champions League Qualifier
27/07/2022 – Shamrock Rovers 2 – 1 PFK Ludogorez Rasgrad
First Professional League
23/07/2022 – CSKA 1948 2 – 2 PFK Ludogorez Rasgrad
Champions League Qualifier
20/07/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Rasgrad 3 – 0 Shamrock Rovers
First Professional League
16/07/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 2 – 0 PFK Lokomotive Plovdiv
Dinamo Zagreb – Statistics & current form
It’s only been three years for Dinamo Zagreb that they have been involved in the group stage of the top flight. The Croatians also made quite an impression at international level in the past two seasons. In 2020/21, they reached the quarter-finals of the Europa League; the previous year, they only just lost out to top favourite Sevilla in the intermediate round.
In view of these far more consistent results in European business alone, we agree with the bookmakers and can understand why lower odds are being offered on the dark blue team in the “to-qualify” market between Ludogorez Rasgrad and Dinamo Zagreb. Already in the first leg in Bulgaria we trust the team of former national coach Ante Cacic to get a good result.
Concentrated defensive work gains importance in the European Cup
But it is also clear that Croatia’s most successful football club must definitely improve on their performances in the second qualifying round. The almost embarrassing 2:2 at home against Shkupi was followed by a narrow 1:0 away win in North Macedonia, which was enough for the next round. Things went much more smoothly at the start of the league season. Here, the defending champions have nine points after three games. The dress rehearsal before this important away match in Bulgaria was won 4:1 against NK Istra.
Although Cacic’s side have now scored at least two goals in four of their five competitive matches, we would be cautious about predicting a lot of goals in the Ludogorez Rasgrad vs Dinamo Zagreb clash. There is much more at stake in the CL qualifiers. The focus will be more on the defence. No team wants to fall behind early. Given the calculable risk, it is definitely an option to go for a maximum of three goals in the course of the match and combine this bet with double chance X2. Qualitatively, we rate Dinamo stronger.
Predicted line-up of Dinamo Zagreb:
Livakovic; Moharrami, Lauritsen, Peric, Ljubicic; Spikic, Misic, Ademi, Ivanusec; Orsic, Petkovic
Last matches played by Dinamo Zagreb:
1st League
30/07/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 4 – 1 NK Istra 1961
Champions League Qualification
27/07/2022 – Shkupi 0 – 1 Dinamo Zagreb
1st League
24/07/2022 – Slaven 1 – 5 Dinamo Zagreb
Champions League Qualifier
20/07/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 2 – 2 Shkupi
1st League
16/07/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 3 – 2 NK Lokomotiva
Ludogorez Razgrad – Dinamo Zagreb Direct comparison / H2H-balance
The two clubs have already played four matches at competition level. In the second round of the Champions League qualifiers in 2012/13, Zagreb had the longer breath. A year later, the Bulgarians prevailed in the EL group stage in the first and second legs. In total, there are two Ludo victories, one Dinamo success and one draw. Only in one of the four direct duels mentioned above would the bet have gone for over 3.5 goals.
Ludogorez Razgrad – Dinamo Zagreb Tip
The road to the Champions League group stage is long and arduous. The joy is all the greater when you finally make it into the concert of the greats. Ludogorez Rasgrad and Dinamo Zagreb have now been waiting six and three years respectively for the right to start in the top flight. The aim is to end this drought in 2022/23.
In the first leg of the third qualifying round, Ludogorez Rasgrad and Dinamo Zagreb are offered lower betting odds on an away win. This odds distribution underlines that the Croatians have the better team in terms of quality and have been more convincing on the international stage recently.
Although there was still some sand in the Cacic team’s gears in the previous round, we believe that Drmic, Petrovic and Co. are on a good path after the very convincing performances in the league as well as the important second leg win in Skopje against Shkupi.
We have therefore decided to give a combined tip on X2 & Under 3.5 between Ludogorez Rasgrad and Dinamo Zagreb.
