Loose start for the Croatian champions?
Slowly, the footballing celebrities in UEFA Champions League qualifying are stepping up their game. A number of clubs are now entering the competition in round two, and internally they should definitely have set their sights on punching their ticket to the group stage. One of these clubs is Dinamo Zagreb and, as the reigning Croatian champions, they have the ambition to compete with the best teams in Europe.
On their way into the 32-team field, coach Ante Cacic’s team has been drawn a more than feasible opponent in the second qualifying round. Ahead of the first leg between Dinamo Zagreb and Shkupi, the odds offered by the bookmakers leave no question as to who will be the heavy favourites going into the encounter. For a surprise coup of the guest from North Macedonia, horrendous quotes are offered at the top for a reason.
Considering that the underdogs had a tough time against Gibraltar’s Lincoln Red Imps in the first qualifying round and almost lost the first leg 3-0 in front of their home crowd, our prediction for Tuesday night’s one-sided clash between Dinamo Zagreb and Shkupi can only go in the direction of the home side, who are much better in terms of quality. Even a landslide victory, which would be tantamount to a preliminary decision, can by no means be ruled out in view of the difference in class.
Dinamo Zagreb – Statistics & current form
2019/20 was the last time Dinamo Zagreb qualified for the group stage of the UEFA Champions League. In the past two seasons, however, the Croatian top club failed to qualify, last year even in the play-offs against Sheriff Tiraspol. In 2020/21 and 2021/22, the dark blue team reached the Europa League, but at least made it to the quarter-finals in 2021 and the intermediate round in 2020.
These remarkable successes on the international stage alone inevitably lead to the second qualifying round for the top flight being regarded merely as a stopover. No wonder, because Croatia’s most successful football club has not failed to clear this hurdle for 15 years. It therefore goes without saying that all bets between Dinamo Zagreb and Shkupi should be on the home side.
Zagreb better in all respects and more experienced
In addition to the plus in experience and the clear advantages in terms of quality, it is also positive to note that the team of coach Ante Cacic has started successfully into the new season. Last Friday, Dinamo won 3-2 at home against city rivals Lokomotiva, showing defensive weaknesses on the one hand, but on the other hand being very effective going forward. Before that, they had already won the national Super Cup against Hajduk Split.
All in all, everything speaks in favour of a commanding home victory for the Zagreb team, who will again be able to draw on a very interesting squad of seasoned internationals and young talents in 2022/23. Apart from that, the serial champions (2018-2022) are still unbeaten under 68-year-old coach Ante Cacic.
In seven games under the leadership of the former national coach, who has been in office since mid-April, there have been five victories and two draws. At least in three of those games, the team scored at least three goals of their own, so it could be an option to combine the odds on a home win with an over 2.5/3.5 in the first leg between Dinamo Zagreb and Shkupi. There is also the home advantage, which should not be considered too small at the Maksimir Stadium.
Predicted Dinamo Zagreb line-up:
Livakovic; Moharrami, Theophile-Catherine, Sutalo, Stefulj; Ademi, Ljubicic; Menalo, Ivanusec, Orsic; Drmic
Last matches played by Dinamo Zagreb:
1st League
16/07/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 3 – 2 NK Lokomotiva
Super Cup
10/07/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb (4)0 – 0.1 Hajduk Split
1st League
22/05/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 3 – 1 Hajduk Split
15/05/2022 – Sibenik 0 – 2 Dinamo Zagreb
09/05/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 3 – 0 Osijek
Shkupi – Statistics & current form
It was only ten years ago that KF Shkupi was founded. Only three years after its foundation, the team was promoted to the highest division in Northern Macedonia for the first time. Seven seasons later, the club from the capital Skopje won the national championship for the first time. As a reward for this meteoric development, the Blue and Whites can now celebrate their debut in the Champions League qualifiers.
The adventure was almost over in the first round, however, because despite a 3-0 first leg win at home against Lincoln Red Imps from Gibraltar, it was a close call in the second leg. In the end, a 2-0 defeat was recorded, which was enough to advance, but at the same time also underlined in which category the North Macedonian title holders should be classified. At the latest after this performance away from home, it is impossible to make any predictions about the underdogs between Dinamo Zagreb and Shkupi.
Shkupi often still overmatched internationally
The weak European Cup record of the last few years also speaks for this. In three of the past four seasons, Shkupi failed to reach the first qualifying round. Only last year did they reach the second round of the Conference League qualifiers. But never further than that.
Their overall record is two wins, three draws and six defeats from eleven games. The North Macedonians have never won away from home at international level. In six attempts, they have drawn two, lost four and conceded at least two goals in five.
To make matters worse, the ball is not yet rolling in the domestic league, so match practice is limited to the two aforementioned matches against Lincoln. It would therefore be a big surprise if coach Goce Sedloski’s no-name team, in which not a single player is even close to the market value of one million euros, could keep the match open for long. By comparison, the opponents from Zagreb have a total market value of 100 million euros.
Predicted line-up of Shkupi:
Naumovski; Brdarovski, Senghor, Abdulla, Sheji; Queven, Ackovski, Alvarez; Cephas, Adetunji, Danfa
Last matches played by Shkupi:
Champions League Qualifier
12/07/2022 – Lincoln Red Imps FC 2 – 0 Shkupi
06/07/2022 – Shkupi 3 – 0 Lincoln Red Imps FC
Friendly club matches
22/06/2022 – Fenerbahçe 2 – 2 Shkupi
Prva Liga
15/05/2022 – Shkupi 3 – 0 FC Academy Pandev
08/05/2022 – KF Shkendija 0 – 0 Shkupi
Dinamo Zagreb – Shkupi Direct comparison / H2H balance
This is the first time the two clubs have faced each other in a competitive match. However, Dinamo Zagreb have already played a total of 75 matches against representatives from North Macedonia. 68 of them against Vardar Skopje in the former Yugoslavian top flight. However, these historic duels no longer have any particular relevance, so we can safely disregard them when placing our bets.
Dinamo Zagreb – Shkupi Tip
Clear signs ahead of the first leg of the second qualifying round of the Champions League between Dinamo Zagreb and Shkupi. Betting odds of 1.11 on a home win imply a probability of 88%. In other words, anything other than a commanding home victory for the Croatian champions would be a sensation.
This is supported by the fact that the home side under their new coach Cacic have not lost any of their seven matches so far and even started the 2022/23 season with two victories. Apart from that, the Europa League quarter-finalists from the 2020/21 season have far more quality and international experience than the northern Macedonian underdogs.
When you add to that the fact that the visitors already lost their last away game in the Champions League qualifiers 2-0 at Lincoln Red Imps, there is every indication that Zagreb will not show any signs of weakness in their first European Cup match of the current season. We think even a high success of the favourites is extremely likely.
Therefore, between Dinamo Zagreb and Shkupi, we bet on the Cacic team to win both halves
