Will Ferencvaros pull themselves out of the woodwork?
Football fans who are paying close attention to the first qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League certainly cannot complain about a lack of excitement at the moment. Instead, a plausible cause for complaint is the paucity of goals scored in the first legs played in stadiums across Europe a week ago. Exactly a third of all 15 matches played ended 0-0, including the encounter between the Kazakh champions and the Hungarian title holders.
Ahead of next Wednesday’s second leg, everything is therefore open, although the odds between Ferencvaros Budapest and Tobol are clearly in favour of the home side. The fact is that the team of former Russian national coach Stanislav Cherchevos needs a home win to advance to the second qualifying round. But it is also clear that the Hungarians will have to show a different face than a week ago, when they fell short of their own expectations in Qostanai.
Hope for a positive result in the second leg is primarily based on home advantage and experience in international competition. However, the guests from Eastern Europe should not be underestimated, especially as Milanovic’s team is still in the running and could therefore benefit from more match experience and a certain competitive toughness as the match progresses. The host’s goal should therefore be to take control of the game early on. At best already before the change of ends.
Ferencvaros Budapest – Statistics & current form
In the season before last, a long dry spell came to an end for Ferencvaros Budapest. For the first time in 25 years, the Hungarian top club qualified for the group stage of the Champions League and was able to compete with top teams like FC Barcelona or Juventus Turin on the biggest possible international football stage. The previous year, the capital club reached the group stage of the Europa League, where they were also eliminated after six games against Leverkusen, Betis Sevilla and Celtic Glasgow.
Having reached the group stage of the European Cup in three successive seasons, expectations are high for the Hungarian champions, who have now won four league titles in a row. An exit in the first qualifying round of the top flight would be a real super-GAU. However, such a scenario cannot be ruled out, even though the odds clearly favour Ferencvaros Budapest against Tobol in the second leg.
Ferencvaros have a lot to lose
This assessment by the bookmakers with a German licence is based, among other things, on the consistently good results in front of the home crowd in recent years. In 2021/22, three of four home games in the Champions League qualifiers were won and in 2020/21 they also remained unbeaten in three qualifiers in front of their own fans with two wins and a draw. Interesting: In five of these six games, the team even ended up with a defensive zero, which is why it could even be an option to bet on a “to-nil” victory for the host between Ferencvaros Budapest and Tobol on Wednesday.
For the sake of completeness, however, it must be mentioned that the Green-Whites only start national league play at the end of the month and are therefore in the midst of their preparations. Whether they have enough strength to play at the highest tempo for 90 minutes plus X must be doubted, but the existing quality combined with the experience plus at this level as well as the home advantage should be enough to not let anything go to waste and prevent extra time. Even a bet on the Cherchesov team scoring in both halves promises attractive value in our eyes.
Predicted line-up of Ferencvaros Budapest:
Dibusz; Botka, Mmaee, Kovacevic, Civic; Vecsei, Laidouni; Traore, Marquinhos, Nguen; Boli
Last matches played by Ferencvaros Budapest:
Champions League Qualifier
06/07/2022 – Tobol Qostanai 0 – 0 Ferencvaros
NB I
14/05/2022 – Gyirmot 1 – 2 Ferencvaros
Cup
12/05/2022 – Ferencvaros 3 – 0 Paksi SE
NB I
07/05/2022 – Ferencvaros 0 – 3 MTK Budapest
04/05/2022 – Ferencvaros 5 – 3 Zalaegerszeg
Tobol – Statistics & current form
For Tobol Qostanai, the European football stage is still a largely unknown land. The club from northern Kazakhstan has never qualified for a group stage in international competition. So far, they have only played two qualifying matches for the Champions League. In 2011/12, Slovan Bratislava were already too big for them in round two.
Because Tobol were defeated by MSK Zilina in the Conference League qualifiers last season (0:6 on aggregate), it is a surprise that Milan Milanovic’s team can still hope to reach the next round after 90 minutes in front of their home crowd against a renowned opponent like Ferencvaros.
Can Tobol also excel defensively away from home?
Generally speaking, the development of the Black and Yellows is positive, after all, they won the league title again in 2021 after more than ten years. The mission to defend the title is currently complicated, as Tobol are only in fourth place after 15 match days in the new season. At least the gap to the leaders is only three points. Ten points from the last four games underline their good form, which should not be overestimated in view of the weak Kazakh league.
Nevertheless, it is certainly an advantage that the North Kazakhs have more rhythm and match experience. So the longer the score remains tied on Wednesday evening, the more the odds are likely to fall on the supposed underdog. The primary goal must be to keep the score as close to zero as possible and not fall behind early on. Only if they manage to do that is a surprise coup within the realm of possibility.
Defensively, however, the Black and Yellows always have problems. In four of the last eight league games, for example, they always conceded at least two goals. Among the top ten teams in the Kazakh top flight, no other team has conceded more goals than the men from Qostonai. With this in mind, the prediction of goals from the hosts in both halves comes into focus again between Ferencvaros Budapest and Tobol.
Predicted line-up of Tobol:
Mokin; Kairov, Maliy, Tomasevic, Amanovic; Jovancic, Tagybergen; Tosic, Zharynbetov, Brigido; Zhaksylykov
Last matches played by Tobol:
Champions League Qualifier
06/07/2022 – Tobol Qostanai 0 – 0 Ferencvaros
Premier League
01/07/2022 – FC Turan 2 – 2 Tobol Qostanai
26/06/2022 – FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk 1 – 3 Tobol Qostanai
19/06/2022 – Tobol Qostanai 1 – 0 Kaspiy Aktau
22/05/2022 – Tobol Qostanai 4 – 2 Maktaaral FC
Ferencvaros Budapest – Tobol Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Of course, the two clubs faced each other for the first time in an official competitive match the previous week. After an intense 90 minutes, however, it remained goalless, despite the teams firing a total of 25 shots towards the opposition’s goal. The Kazakhs even had a slight advantage in the goal scoring statistics. It can be assumed that this tide will now turn in Budapest.
Ferencvaros Budapest – Tobol Tip
The road to the Champions League group stage is long and, above all, rocky. Only a few clubs that are already competing in the first qualifying round will also be allowed to fight for a ticket to the exquisite main draw of the top flight in the play-offs. One club that has every right to hope for, given its history, is Ferencvaros Budapest. According to the betting odds, they should not lose too much against Tobol in the second leg of the first qualifying round.
Although the first leg ended 0-0, everything points to the Cherchesov team living up to their role as favourites. The decisive reason is, of course, the home advantage, which has helped them many times in recent seasons. But also in terms of quality and experience, the Green-Whites are clearly in the lead.
Because the visitors from the north of Kazakhstan have shown defensive weaknesses from time to time recently, we have even decided to play a bet between Ferencvaros Budapest and Tobol that the home side will score at least once in both halves.
