Will ALBA secure the title hat-trick at home?

14,500 spectators will be in attendance at the Mercedes Benz Arena in the capital on Friday night, hoping that ALBA can clinch the championship in front of their home crowd for the first time in 19 years. The starting position before the third final match could not be better from the Berliners’ point of view. Thanks to two wins in the first two matches, the Albatrosse only need to win one of the next three matches to be crowned German champions for the third time in a row.

The fact that the odds are clearly in favour of coach Israel Gonzalez’s team ahead of Game 3 of the finals series between ALBA Berlin and Bayern is partly due to the impressions from the first two games. On the other hand, however, it is also due to the physical and mental fatigue that the Munich team is currently unable to get out of their legs and heads. It would therefore be a surprise if the series were to be shipped back to the Bavarian capital.

A further complicating matters for the visitors is the fact that, as in Game 2, one of their key players, Vlado Lucic, will not be available due to injury. The Trinchieri team has its back to the wall and needs a small basketball miracle to push back the celebrations of its long-time rival by at least a few days.

Nevertheless, we’re not too keen on a prediction of a surprise on Friday night between ALBA Berlin and Bayern, so we’ll stick with our guess that ALBA will come out on top in the third match.

Alba Berlin – Statistics & current form

Should ALBA Berlin secure their third championship in a row on Friday night, everyone would definitely be talking about an absolutely deserved title defence. Throughout the entire season, the Albatrosse were the measure of all things at national level. The yellow-blue team finished the regular season in first place, won the BBL Cup, and in the playoffs, too, the capital city team has been a tough nut to crack.

Although ALBA only has about half the budget of their opponents from Munich, sporting director Marco Baldi and the coaching team around head coach Israel Gonzalez have once again found a way to leave all the other clubs behind them this year.

Everything is just right with ALBA at the moment

Most of all, the fact that no other club relies so much on German players as the multiple German champion is worth highlighting. Every player in the team knows his role and performs it to everyone’s approval. The chemistry is excellent, and when it comes to self-confidence, no one can fool the first-placed team in the main round.

It is now 19 (!) games in a row that the Berliners have won across the competition. In the quarter-finals of the play-offs, the former title holders from Bamberg were swept, in the semi-finals, Ludwigsburg did not stand a chance and in the two finals so far, the Albatrosses’ margin of victory was 13 points in each case. In view of these statistics, it would be grossly negligent not to place a bet between ALBA Berlin and Bayern on the next victory of the then established champions.

From a purely tactical point of view, there is also a lot to be said for the capital city team, which has great advantages especially under the basket. These have an effect on rebounding on the one hand and on easy points in the zone on the other. Should the three-point percentage also develop positively again on Friday evening, the odds on a home victory including over 156.5 points will also be of interest in Game 3 of the BBL Finals ALBA Berlin vs. Bayern. We think it is unlikely that there will be another low-scoring game like last Tuesday.

Predicted line-up of Alba Berlin:
PG: Maodo Lo
SG: Jaleen Smith
SF: Louis Olinde
PF: Luke Sikma
C: Johannes Thiemann

Bayern – Statistics & current form

Starting with the clear goal of bringing the championship title back to the Isar for the first time since 2019, there is currently much to suggest that the Munich side will fail in that mission once again. Already in the semi-finals, the men of the Italian coach volcano Andrea Trinchieri were on the brink of elimination after two surprising home defeats against Bonn, but were then able to secure their place in the final in Game 5 at the Telekom Dome.

Now, however, it seems as if the team is tired and no longer able to play its best basketball. On the one hand, it’s no wonder – after all, no other Bundesliga team has played as many competitive games as FC Bayern Basketball (82) – but on the other hand, it’s incomprehensible that the still high-quality Euroleague quarter-finalists couldn’t find a way to stop the Berliners’ tempo and inside game in the first two games.

Has the FCB already given up hope?

The task won’t be any easier on Friday night either, especially as Trinchieri will have to do without perhaps his most important player Vladimir Lucic. Alongside Corey Walden and Darrun Hilliard, the Serbian is already the third professional who was planned as a key player to be absent during the most important phase of the season. Because other players such as Nick Weiler-Babb, Ognjen Jaramaz, Augustine Rubit or DeShaun Thomas are also currently lagging behind their best form and the squad is no longer as strong in view of the absences, lower odds on the home victory are rightly being offered before the third final match between ALBA Berlin and Bayern.

The problem is above all the lousy shooting rate from the field, which was even below 40% in total in the second game on Tuesday. Winning a basketball game at this level with 27% from beyond the three-point line is very complicated. Bayern also handed out six fewer assists, recorded eight fewer rebounds and were only allowed to go to the free-throw line six times in total. Despite a good defensive performance, the scoreboard in the Audi Dome showed a deserved 58-71 defeat. Incidentally, a certain Uli Hoeneß was also sitting there and left after the final siren, visibly disappointed.

Predicted Bayern line-up:
PG: Nick Weiler-Babb
SG: Nihad Dedovic
SF: Ognjen Jaramaz
PF: Augustine Rubit
C: Leon Radosevic

ALBA Berlin – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Six duels between the two best basketball teams from Germany in the current season. Two in the regular season of the BBL, two in the Euroleague as well as the first two finals in the playoffs. While the Munich team always prevailed in the first three encounters, ALBA recently had the upper hand three times in a row.

The two most recent meetings both ended with a 13-point difference, so it may well be an option to make a prediction between ALBA Berlin and Bayern in Game 3 that the capitals will again win by at least a seven-point difference.

Alba Berlin – Bayern Tip

Everything is prepared. The championship trophy will already be in the hall, the tinsel is already hanging from the ceilings and the majority of the approximately 14,500 spectators in the sold-out Mercedes Benz Arena will also be hoping for the BBL season to come to an end on Wednesday evening. If the betting odds on the favourite between ALBA Berlin and Bayern pay off, it would mean the third championship in a row for the capital club.

Our doubts are limited, because it was already clear in the first two games that the Gonzalez team is currently superior to the Munich team in many areas. The yellow-blue team seems to be more well-rehearsed, fitter, happier and more self-confident. For the FCB, on the other hand, fatigue prevails, both in the head and in the legs. But you can’t really blame them after 82 games and in view of the many absences…

We are convinced that the Albatrosses will once again play to their advantage in transition and in the zone. In addition, it can be assumed that this time more points will be scored than last Tuesday, when both teams threw up mediocre percentages from the outside. We even don’t rule out a small basketball festival by the hosts in front of a sell-out crowd.

On balance, we have therefore decided to give a combined tip on the home win and at least 157 points in the course of the game (incl. overtime) between ALBA Berlin and Bayern.