Stage 1 of the Patrick Farewell Tour?

The weeks of decision are upon us in the German Basketball Bundesliga. After all four quarter-finals went to the respective favourites by sweep (3:0 series wins), the eagerly awaited semi-final series will now start on Friday and Saturday respectively. Among others, the reigning champions and cup winners from the German capital will be challenged.

ALBA Berlin is the clear favourite against Ludwigsburg according to the odds. Due to the better ranking in the course of the regular season, the Albatrosse enjoy home advantage in the first two games in the preliminary round. In any case, the team of Spanish coach Israel Gonzalez is the measure of all things in German basketball at the moment, so that it would be a big surprise if a commanding success did not emerge in game one of this series.

Caution is advised, however, as the MHP Riesen from Ludwigsburg were the only team in the BBL to win both main round games against the defending champions. Furthermore, John Patrick is regarded as an absolute coach who has overperformed with his teams time and again in the past.

The long-time Lubu coach also has a score to settle with the Berliners, as the Giants also lost out in the 2020 final tournament to the capital city side, who are now looking to win the championship for the third time in a row.

ALBA Berlin – Statistics & current form

While the great FC Bayern Basketball remains a cut above the Albatrosses on the international stage after their recent two play-off appearances in the Euroleague, there is no other team on the national level that has been as consistently successful as ALBA Berlin in recent years.

In each of the last two years, the team from the capital was crowned German champion. In addition, they have won five cups since 2013, and in 2022 they also took the BBL Cup title with a well-deserved victory in the final against the Crailsheim Merlins. Furthermore, ALBA finished the regular season in first place with a record of 27 wins and six losses and thus enjoys home court advantage until the play-off final.

ALBA swept Bamberg in the quarter-finals

The current form can also be described as outstanding, as the most recent 13 competitive matches have all been victorious. In particular, the three performances in the semi-finals against the former champions from Bamberg were a real demonstration of power. They won the respective matches with a difference of 25, twelve and 33 points.

On average, the Gonzalez team scored 104.67 points. In four of the last five league matches, the magic mark of 100 own points was broken. Only in one of the past eight encounters would the bet on the Under 160.5 have gone through, which is why we can well imagine placing a combined bet on victory ALBA & Over 160.5 in Game 1 of the series ALBA Berlin vs Ludwigsburg on Friday evening.

The Berlin team convinces with the best team basketball in the BBL, can fall back on an extremely deep rotation and lives on the variability in the offense. Every player can score, every player can defend and the individual cogs mesh perfectly, so that ALBA is currently the hottest candidate to win the title at the bookmakers for understandable reasons.

Projected line-up of ALBA Berlin:
PG: Maodo Lo
SG: Malte Delow
SF: Jaleen Smith
PF: Oscar da Silva
C: Jo Thiemann

Ludwigsburg – Statistics & current form

The MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg are a real coaching team. Only after John Patrick took over the reins in the south of the country in 2013 were the yellow-blacks able to develop from a “grey mouse” to a real top team. The highlight was clearly their entry into the championship final in 2020, which they lost to ALBA Berlin after a first and second leg in the “bubble” caused by the pandemic.

On the international stage, “Lubu” was also quite convincing in the current season, reaching the final four of the Champions League and finishing in a respectable third place after a semi-final defeat against the Spanish club Manresa. In the Bundesliga, they finished fourth in the final standings thanks to 23 wins from 34 games, which meant they had to face the uncomfortable Ulm team in the quarter-finals.

Nobody likes to play against the Giants

Although Ludwigsburg, who were also led offensively by the best defensive player in the league, Justin Simon, won all three games against Ratiopharm Ulm, they had to stretch quite a bit and also go overtime twice. In the end, however, it was also thanks to the experience of the coach and the functioning procedures of a well-rehearsed squad that they were able to reach the semi-finals in the playoffs once again.

It will now be interesting to see how the team, which is primarily defined by its defence, plays very physical basketball and likes to achieve success on the offensive end through transition, will present itself against Berlin. It seems quite certain that Coach Patrick will leave the club for Japan at the end of the season. Numerous key players are also about to leave, so the team may see this as their last chance to make a real splash.

Character, mentality, the will to fight and unconditional commitment are the hallmarks of the Patrick style. High defeats are the exception. Especially against the top teams in the league, the MHP Giants often find a way to keep up well. Against this background, it might make sense to play the odds on the handicap (+11.5) in favour of the underdog in the first duel between ALBA Berlin and Ludwigsburg. Despite the strengths in the defence, the Over 160.5 has also been cracked regularly at national level recently, which is why we also stand by our previously indicated tip.

Predicted line-up of Ludwigsburg:
PG: Jordan Hulls
SG: Tekele Cotton
SF: Jonah Radebaugh
PF: Justin Simon
C: Jonas Wohlfahrt-Bottermann

ALBA Berlin – Ludwigsburg Direct comparison / H2H-balance

The two teams have faced each other in a number of games in recent years. We will therefore limit our head-to-head record to the most recent ten meetings, of which the Albatrosse won six and the MHP Riesen four.

As already mentioned, however, both main round games of the current season went to the Ludwigsburg team. Both times, however, developed into “low-scoring games”. In Berlin, Lubu won 76:75, at home there was even a victory with a twelve-point difference. In the playoffs, however, the cards will be reshuffled, which is why we do not assume that a prediction on the underdog will pay off again between ALBA Berlin and Ludwigsburg.

ALBA Berlin – Ludwigsburg Tip

Four teams still have a chance to become champions in the Basketballbundesliga. According to the bookmakers, the reigning defending champions and cup winners ALBA Berlin have the best chances of winning the championship again. In the semi-finals, however, the Gonzalez team faces an uncomfortable task in the form of the MHP Riesen from Ludwigsburg. Especially defensively, Patrick’s charges are among the best the league has to offer.

Apart from that, Lubu has had good experiences with the capitals in the current season, as both main round games were won. Now, however, the starting position is different: ALBA is in top form, has won 13 games in a row, most recently dismantled Bamberg in three quarter-final games and also has plenty of self-confidence. In terms of personnel, too, things could hardly look better.

With this in mind, we can understand why lower betting odds are being offered on a home win between ALBA Berlin and Ludwigsburg. The reigning cup winners are rightly favoured and should live up to this role, although we at least trust the outsiders to keep this first semi-final open for a long time. The handicap (+11.5) is therefore a thoroughly attractive betting option.