Who will punch their ticket to the Championship at Wembley Stadium?
46 games in the regular season are still not enough to determine the third promoted team. In English football’s lower tier, this will only be determined in the play-offs. The semi-finals will still be played in a first and second leg, the final in just one duel on a neutral pitch – at Wembley Stadium. In the battle for a return to the second-tier Championship, Sunderland and Wycombe face each other on Saturday afternoon.
For Sunderland it would mean a return to the second division after four years in the third tier, while Wycombe would finally mutate into a lift team and change leagues for the fourth time in the last five years and cheer direct promotion. In the regular season, Sunderland were one point ahead of their rivals in the final standings. For the final match, the bookmakers also see Sunderland against Wycombe as favourites according to current betting odds.
The Black Cats’ outstanding form, which has seen them go without defeat for no less than 15 competitive games, has certainly played a big part in this. The play-off final will kick off at the state-of-the-art new Wembley Stadium on Saturday afternoon at 4pm.
Sunderland – Statistics & current form
The last few years have been anything but easy for supporters of AFC Sunderland. Straight out of the Premier League, the Black Cats were shuffled through to the third-tier League One. There, Sunderland has always been in the top flight, but promotion never came. In 2018/19, the club was defeated in the final by Charlton Athletic (1:2) and last season in the semi-finals by Lincoln City (total score 2:3). As we all know, good things come in threes and this year they are now looking to fix their return.
Success coach Alex Neil
For the entire season, the Black Cats were in the promotion race, but still opted for a new impetus on the coaching bench earlier this year. Three defeats in a row (including a 1:6 clash) prompted the sacking and simultaneous signing of Scotland’s Alex Neil. An absolute stroke of luck, as it has turned out in the meantime. After two winless games at the start, Sunderland got more and more into the swing of things. The 2-1 defeat against MK Dons on 19 February was the last defeat in a competitive match until today.
Sunderland have now gone 15 games without defeat and are brimming with confidence in the face of these figures. In the play-off semi-final, they beat Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 at home and a 1-1 draw in the second leg was enough to secure their place in the final.
Sunderland seem to have learned how to lose and are favourites in the final for promotion to the Championship, also due to these impressive statistics. Odds of around 2.20 are being offered for Sunderland to win the regular season match against Wycombe, while the Black Cats’ promotion is being quoted at 1.60.
Predicted Sunderland line-up:
Patterson – Wright, Batth, Cirkin – Clarke, Evans, O’Nien, Gooch – Pritchard – Stewart, Clarke
Last matches played by Sunderland:
League One Play-off
10/05/2022 – Sheffield Wednesday 1 – 1 Sunderland
07/05/2022 – Sunderland 1 – 0 Sheffield Wednesday
League One
30/04/2022 – Morecambe 0 – 1 Sunderland
27/04/2022 – Sunderland 1 – 1 Rotherham
23/04/2022 – Sunderland 5 – 1 Cambridge U
Wycombe – Statistics & current form
While Sunderland have had to traverse great depths in recent years, the development of the “Chairboys” from Wycombe in recent years has been remarkable. In 2017/18, the club was still active in the fourth division before the breakthrough into the Championship was achieved. In 2020/21, Wycombe Wanderers played in the Championship for the first time in the club’s history. They were relegated directly, but due to the low budget, staying in the league would have been a big sensation anyway.
Home strength as a big plus
The relegated team one tier below had no adjustment problems and was also in the play-off places throughout the season. Nevertheless, their participation in the play-offs was ultimately a nail-biter, as only a strong finish enabled head coach Gareth Ainsworth’s side to jump up to sixth place. Wycombe have not lost in their last ten league games. The 2-1 away win against Burton Albion on the last matchday and the defeat of Plymouth against MK Dons ensured the jump to sixth place.
Speaking of MK Dons – this was then also the opponent in the play-off semi-final, which Wycombe won with an aggregate score of 2-1. Once again, the foundations for success were laid at home to Adams Park. Thanks to the 2-0 win, the Ainsworth eleven could afford a narrow defeat in the second leg. Home strength – 14 wins, five draws, four defeats – has been one of the Chairboys’ big factors in their success this season.
Predicted Wycombe line-up:
Stockdale – Jacobson, Tafazolli, Stewart, McCarthy – Scowen, Gape – Obita, Horgan, McCleary – Vokes
Last matches played by Wycombe:
League One Playoff
09/05/2022 – Milton Keynes Dons 1 – 0 Wycombe
06/05/2022 – Wycombe 2 – 0 Milton Keynes Dons
League One
30/04/2022 – Burton 1 – 2 Wycombe
23/04/2022 – Wycombe 1 – 0 Sheffield Wednesday
18/04/2022 – AFC Wimbledon 1 – 1 Wycombe
Sunderland – Wycombe Direct comparison / H2H record
There have not been many points of contact between the two promotion contenders so far. Only six duels can be found in the database so far. In 2018/19, both league encounters ended in a 1-1 draw, with the hosts coming out on top in each of the following seasons.
In the current regular season, the Black Cats from Sunderland celebrated a 3-1 home win, and the teams parted spectacularly 3-3 at Wycombe Wanderers’ Adams Park. However, due to the importance of the play-off final, a high-scoring game is not expected on Saturday.
Sunderland – Wycombe Tip
Although Wycombe Wanderers narrowly lost the semi-final second leg, both teams are brimming with confidence. Sunderland are unbeaten in 15 games, for Wycombe this was the only defeat in the last twelve competitive games. Due to the importance of this match, it is to be expected that a bet on few goals (Under 2.5 or “Both hits No”) is very promising for Sunderland against Wycombe.
The risk will be chosen wisely on both sides, as going behind is a long way from the dream of a second league return. Sunderland certainly have the better squad in terms of quality, have not lost for three months and also had the edge in the head-to-head comparison in the regular season. These are all arguments that justify a prediction on Sunderland winning against Wycombe. The promotion bet with a 1.60 is also quite interesting.
