Does the Leafs’ playoff curse continue?
“The same procedure as every year”, says a well known TV highlight every New Year’s Eve. We can apply that phrase in the NHL to the Toronto Maple Leafs, who now have to go to a deciding game of their first-round playoff series for the fifth year in a row.
They have never won it. Not even last year, when they had home ice against the much weaker Canadiens. Much is also reminiscent of that series, in which the Leafs also lost Game 6 after overtime.
So the Leafs now have to overcome these shadows of the past. The fact that the opponent this time is the Tampa Bay Lightning, the reigning champions after all, does not make the task any easier – if not hopeless.
For Maple Leafs vs. Lightning, our prediction is a game in which confident Bolts have the clear advantage on their side against nervous Canadians. It probably wouldn’t surprise any NHL pundit if the Leafs’ curse continues this year.
Toronto Maple Leafs – Statistics & current form
Toronto had a chance to make things different this year, but they couldn’t take advantage of it. It was Brayden Point who caused the Leafs’ neckbreak after 18:04 minutes in overtime. Was that it for the Canadians?
Not officially, of course, and the bookies still consider them the favourites (for whatever reason), but anyone who has followed the NHL over the last few years might see little hope for the Leafs.
It’s all in the head
Even last year, it was all about this dark playoff series for the Leafs, who haven’t won a series since 2004, before Game 7 against Montreal. Back then, the Leafs crumbled under that pressure and didn’t get much on the ice in a 3-1 loss in that game.
Now, against the even stronger Bolts, the task will be harder rather than easier. They know Game 7 success well, having won the Stanley Cup two years in a row. The confidence in this game should therefore be quite unevenly distributed in favour of the Bolts.
Statistics less important for this game
As we’ve seen time and time again in recent years, stats are obsolete for this Game 7, as it comes down purely to nerves and grit. Still, it shouldn’t help the Leafs that they are clearly behind on both the power play and penalty killing.
Especially in competitive games, the special teams often tip the scales. Another reason why we recommend betting on the away team with 100% conviction in Toronto vs. Tampa Bay.
Key Players:
G: Jack Campbell
D: Morgan Rielly
D: Timothy Liljegren
LW: Michael Bunting
C: Auston Matthews
RW: Mitch Marner
Tampa Bay Lightning – Statistics & current form
The Tampa Bay Lightning have achieved exactly what they wanted: a Game 7, which means half the battle is already in the bag as the Bolts also know about the Leafs’ losing streak in these games. That should push their confidence a little more.
As long as this doesn’t turn into arrogance, all is well. The Scotiabank Arena crowd should make sure they stay focused enough. So the Leafs’ home-ice advantage is almost an advantage for the Bolts to stay focused.
Bolts the champions of important games
No team knows more about important games in recent years than the double-champions from Tampa. Last year, for example, the Lightning had such a Game 7 in the Conference Finals, where they ultimately defeated the Islanders 1-0.
Sober, but successful. Now for Saturday, too, we don’t expect any goal fireworks, which rarely happen in seventh games. This increases the chances for the better defence team. In the regular season, that was clearly the Bolts with 2.78 goals conceded per game (Leafs: 3.07).
Avoid penalties
A point that is always important for seventh games as well: staying out of the penalty box. In Game 6, the Leafs ended up with 8 to 4 penalty minutes and promptly lost as the Bolts were able to convert one of their power plays.
Whoever concedes fewer penalties will certainly have a slight advantage on Saturday. All in all, however, there is a lot more to be said for an away win, and not just the head. Thus, the odds on Tampa are worthwhile for Leafs vs. Bolts – even more so due to their terrific value.
Key Players:
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy
D: Victor Hedman
D: Jan Rutta
LW: Ondrej Palat
C: Brayden Point
RW: Nikita Kucherov
Toronto Maple Leafs – Tampa Bay Lightning Direct comparison / H2H-balance
3:3 and that’s all it takes for head-to-head duels to matter. In the end, it’s not the direct duels that count as the yardstick here, but the teams’ last experience in seventh games. And those were much more pleasant for Tampa, as already mentioned.
While the Bolts haven’t lost a Game 7 since 2018, the Leafs have had that experience in each of the last five years. As tough as these guys are, that doesn’t leave a mark on a pro.
With that said, the head clearly favours the Bolts, who also have the self-image of a reigning champion. For Toronto vs. Tampa, a bet on the Lightning is therefore our clear betting recommendation, whereby we even consider a slightly higher stake as bettable in this case.
Toronto Maple Leafs – Tampa Bay Lightning Tip
Playoff losers vs playoff winners in recent years. That’s one way to put it, and it practically implies which side we’re on – at least betting-wise.
Betting against the Bolts in this duel would already be very risky due to the events of the last seasons. Therefore, for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning, a bet on Tampa is our clear betting option No.1.
Alternatively, bets on subpar points are recommended. While both teams possess strong offenses, in seventh games it very often comes down to the defense. Tampa’s 1-0 win over New York last year is just one of many good examples of this.
