Will Stevie G make the difference in the championship race?
The 4th of October 2020 is still remembered by all Aston Villa and Liverpool fans. However, while the Reds don’t have fond memories of that Sunday night around a year and a half ago, supporters of the Birmingham club still tell wonderful stories of where and how they watched that memorable match. The Villans sensationally prevailed 7-2 on that occasion.
However, we are about as far away from a repeat of that result on Tuesday as Sebastian Vettel is from the Formula 1 World Championship title. In the first head-to-head meeting of these clubs at Villa Park, Aston Villa are once again odds-on underdogs against Liverpool. Even a point would be a big surprise from the point of view of the home side, who can at least be sure of the support of all City sympathisers.
After coach Jürgen Klopp’s side unexpectedly dropped points in their encounter against Tottenham at the weekend, a preliminary decision is already looming.
Aston Villa – Statistics & current form
Aston Villa landed a real big point last weekend. Thanks to the 3-1 away win at Burnley, the cushion on the first relegation place increased to nine points. It is hardly realistic that Steven Gerrard’s team will slip to the bottom of the table again just a few matches before the end of the season. Especially considering that the seven-time English champions – in contrast to many of their direct rivals from the lower half of the table – still have four matches to play.
The fact that three of these four matches take place in front of a home crowd is not necessarily a clear advantage. Throughout the season, the Villans have scored more points away from home than in front of their own fans. Only six of their 16 home games have been victorious. Only four other teams have conceded more goals at home than Gerrard’s side, but they are still in solid form
Villa in good form at the moment
Before the aforementioned 3-1 win at Burnley, the Birmingham club had already won 2-0 against Norwich. For only the third time in the past nine seasons, Villa could now celebrate three Premier League trebles in a row. The last time this happened was not so long ago. From the end of February to mid-March 2022, the eleventh-placed team also celebrated three successive victories in England’s top division.
However, because the overall record against the upcoming opponents from Merseyside does not really read well and the hosts are rightly listed as underdogs in this match, measured by the qualitative differences between the two squads, we would be sceptical with regard to the chances of Ollie Watkins and Co.
Speaking of Ollie Watkins, the Englishman has scored more goals against no other club in the Premier League than against LFC. In total, the international has four goals, three of which he scored in the highlight match from 2020 mentioned at the beginning. Leon Bailey and Kourtney House are still not involved. There is also a bigger question mark behind Jacob Ramsey.
Predicted line-up of Aston Villa:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne; McGinn, Chambers, Luiz; Buendia; Ings, Watkins
Last matches played by Aston Villa:
Premier League
07/05/2022 – Burnley 1 – 3 Aston Villa
30/04/2022 – Aston Villa 2 – 0 Norwich
23/04/2022 – Leicester 0 – 0 Aston Villa
09/04/2022 – Aston Villa 0 – 4 Tottenham
02/04/2022 – Wolverhampton 2 – 1 Aston Villa
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
The historic quadruple moved a little further away for Liverpool Football Club on Saturday night. With the Reds having to settle for a point against Spurs and Manchester City easily beating Newcastle 5-0 the day after, not only has the gap to the Citizens grown to three points, but the goal difference now speaks a relatively clear language in favour of Guardiola’s eleven, who still have the title defence in their own hands.
Nevertheless, LFC will of course do everything in their power to keep the race for the championship open for as long as possible. The prerequisite for this is that the bet on an away win between Aston Villa and Liverpool on Tuesday evening pays off. Statistically, of course, there is a lot to be said for a three-goal win for the league runners-up, who have won 11 of their last 13 Premier League matches and have even gone ten without conceding a goal in that period.
Second Reds loss in a row?
Coach Jürgen Klopp’s charges have also made a strong impression away from home throughout the season. Eleven of the 17 away games have been won. Even more impressive, however, is the offensive output, with Salah, Mane and Co. averaging well over two goals per game away from home. In total, 41 goals were scored. This mark has only been surpassed twice (1946/47 and 2013/14).
In view of these figures and our subjective assessment that the Champions League finalists do not want to lose two points in a row, our first approach is to predict an away win between Aston Villa and Liverpool. It is conceivable to push the slightly lower odds with a bet on the under 4.5, because thanks to the outstanding defence, a maximum of four goals were scored in 14 of the last 15 completed league games of LFC.
It is also worth noting that Liverpool have yet to drop a single point against teams from the bottom half of the table this season. In 18 games, there have been 18 wins and a goal difference of 52:4. No other club has had a 100% win rate of this kind after 38 match days in the English top flight. In terms of personnel, the German coach is spoilt for choice. All the key players are ready and eager to play their way into the starting eleven just a few days before the FA Cup final against Chelsea.
Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Alisson; Gomez, Matip, Van Dijk, Tsimikas; Keita, Fabinho, Thiago; Salah, Jota, Diaz
Last matches played by Liverpool:
Premier League
08/05/2022 – Liverpool FC 1 – 1 Tottenham
Champions League Final
04/05/2022 – Villarreal FC 2 – 3 Liverpool FC
Premier League
30/04/2022 – Newcastle United 0 – 1 Liverpool FC
Champions League Final
28/04/2022 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 Villarreal FC
Premier League
24/04/2022 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 Everton
Aston Villa – Liverpool Direct comparison / H2H record
185 First Division matches are in the history books between the two traditional clubs Aston Villa and Liverpool. With 90 wins, Liverpool clearly lead the direct comparison. In the recent past, too, the pointer has mostly swung in the direction of the Reds.
Seven of the last eight Premier League encounters have gone to LFC, although they were thrashed 7-2 in their last outing at Villa Park. For the first time since 1998, Liverpool could now suffer two successive defeats in Birmingham. However, this scenario is not really likely, as the Scousers have not won at any other club in the Premier League as often as they have at Aston Villa.
Aston Villa – Liverpool Tip
Just three days after the bitter point loss against Tottenham, Liverpool are already challenged again in the Premier League. They are three points and four goals behind leaders Manchester City, who will be looking particularly eagerly at Villa Park on Tuesday night. The Reds must not allow themselves another slip-up under any circumstances.
Ahead of the match between Aston Villa and Liverpool, there are betting odds of 1.48 at the top on an away win. These are relatively high in that LFC have won eleven of their last 13 Premier League games, ten times to nil in that frame, and have also won seven of their most recent eight head-to-head duels against their upcoming opponents.
Despite that, the bookmakers seem to trust the hosts to get a good result, which might be primarily due to the fact that Gerrard’s team recently celebrated two victories in a row and can play liberated. Is it really the Liverpool legend who will finally spoil the championship for his youth club?
We answer this question with “no” and play the combined tip on the LFC victory with a maximum of four goals in the course of the game between Aston Villa and Liverpool.
