Will the Pens extend their lead?
Experience beats recklessness – a realisation that is not new in the NHL playoffs. It’s not for nothing that we even slightly favoured the Pens in this series, even though the Rangers had done better the regular season.
But Pittsburgh still has several double Stanley Cup winners in their ranks and Crosby, Malkin or Letang deliver again in this series. So they are again the slight favourites for Monday – especially in their own arena.
But with New York’s back against the wall, we can look forward to a very intense duel in which no team should be clearly ahead at the end. Game 1 of this series already went into the third overtime last week before Evgeni Malkin redeemed the Pens.
For Pittsburgh vs. New York, our forecast for Game 4 is therefore another game on a knife edge that could well go into overtime. In no duel of the first playoff round is an overtime more likely than in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins – Statistics & current form
The Penguins are living up to their reputation as a playoff team in this series as well. Especially at home in the PPG Paints Arena they are very difficult to defeat, which does not make the task easier for the Rangers.
Nevertheless, the 7:4 win on Saturday was also a very close game, which was only decided in the final minutes by two empty-netters. Game 1 even had to go into the third overtime, which shows how close these two teams are.
Little things decide
So it was again on Saturday, as the Pens fired just one more shot than the Rangers (37:36) and the two teams were also nearly tied in hits (34:33 per New York). This continued the trend of even games.
Also in Game 2 Pittsburgh had only one more shot in the end (41:40), in Game 1 it was a few more. So the Pens have a very slight advantage so far, which is now reflected in the 2-1 series lead.
Penguins as razor-thin favourites in Game 4
So we also see Pittsburgh as the razor-thin favourites at home, with the bookies seeing them as the very slight underdogs. That makes betting on the home team quite interesting. Although we see one option as even more exciting.
With this balance, a draw is not unlikely either. For Penguins vs. Rangers the odds are quite a bit higher, which is why this is the top betting option for us with a small stake.
Key Players:
G: Louis Domingue
D: Brian Dumoulin
D: Kris Letang
LW: Jake Guentzel
C: Sidney Crosby
RW: Bryan Rust
New York Rangers – Statistics & current form
The Rangers were one of the positive surprises of the Regular Season, after all, they had not torn much in the years before. They also increased their points tally by a whopping 50 points compared to the previous year (although the 2020/21 season was also somewhat shortened, of course).
Nevertheless, the trend is going in the right direction and the men from the Big Apple will be a force to be reckoned with in the future. After all, they are one of the younger teams in the league (26.41 years on average). Especially in comparison to their rivals from Pittsburgh (29.04) this becomes clear.
Playoff experience is lacking
This age advantage for the future, however, is a disadvantage for this playoff series. Neither Lafreniere nor Kakko, Gauthier or Chytin have much playoff experience – combined, those four only get 18 postseason games.
That is of course a huge difference to Crosby, Malkin and Co, who have already been Stanley Cup winners twice. This has also been evident to date, as the Pens have made better decisions, especially in the critical moments.
Will we see another high scoring game?
The fact that so many goals have been scored in this matchup so far is a bit surprising on one hand, as both teams featured top 5 defenses this season. On the other hand, however, it’s understandable for the Pens to be looking for high scoring games.
They have the better offence (269:250 goals in the regular season) and in high scoring games they rightly fancy their chances. Thus, betting on over 5.5 total goals for Pens vs. Rangers is also an exciting betting alternative alongside bets on a draw.
Key Players:
G: Igor Shesterkin
D: K’Andre Miller
D: Jacob Trouba
LW: Chris Kreider
C: Mika Zibanejad
RW: Frank Vatrano
Pittsburgh Penguins – New York Rangers Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
In the regular season the Rangers won the series 3:1. In the playoff now, however, the Penguins are 2:1 ahead and also have the next game at home. This currently speaks a little more in favour of the more experienced team.
Last year, the Lightning already showed that this is not uncommon in the postseason, as they were able to win against younger teams in a row. So betting on a series win for the Pens is also a top option at this point.
Now for Game 4 of the series on Monday, there are several good betting options. For Pittsburgh vs. New York, the odds are bettable on pure win bets per Pens, but even more interesting are bets on ties after regulation time.
Pittsburgh Penguins – New York Rangers Tip
The most evenly matched duel so far this postseason is the Penguins’ matchup with the Rangers. This is not surprising, as both teams were very close in the regular season (2nd and 3rd place in the Metropolitan Division).
For this reason, a tip on a draw is appropriate for Penguins against Rangers. Normally, we rarely recommend betting on X, as this does not happen that often, but in this matchup we are making an exception.
Alternative in this matchup, however, is also a bet on over 6.0 total goals. In the three previous duels, the average was 8.3 goals, so the six goals should be reached again in Game 4.
