Barca in mind, Freiburg in front of the chest
On Thursday evening, Eintracht Frankfurt could hardly have represented the Bundesliga on the international stage much better. Against the great FC Barcelona, the Hessians stood up to them very well and eventually earned the more than respectable 1-1 draw, which makes everything seem possible for the second leg next Thursday. As the middle layer of the sandwich between these two highlight matches against the Catalans, SC Freiburg are guests in the Stadtwald on Sunday afternoon.
The Breisgauer will logically have no regard for the sensitivities of the SGE. Especially in view of the fact that the Sport-Club’s appeal against the match classification at home against FC Bayern was not upheld on Friday. The SCF therefore remains on 45 points and in fifth place. Although Eintracht are behind the Black Forest side in the standings, slightly lower odds are being offered on a home win between Frankfurt and Freiburg on Sunday.
On the one hand, this assessment of the bookmakers is of course based on the impressions of last Thursday. On the other hand, the bookmakers are also aware that the Black-Red-Whites need a win against a direct competitor in order to make up ground in the race for an international starting place for the coming season. However, both teams will not play with an open target, which is why the prediction of a low number of goals in the duel between Frankfurt and Freiburg makes perfect sense at first glance.
Frankfurt – Statistics & current form
Eintracht Frankfurt and the Europa League have been intimately in love for several years now. While the SGE certainly has its problems in the Bundesliga to bring consistently good performances on the pitch, you can set the clock according to the fact that we get to see the strongest Eintracht ever on Thursdays on the European stage.
The best example was the 1-1 draw at home against FC Barcelona. By way of comparison, just a few days earlier Glasner’s team had failed to beat bottom-placed Fürth in front of their home crowd. For the second time in a row, the Hessians had to settle for a goalless draw in the league. A third successive 0-0 draw would be a new club record, but not necessarily one to be proud of.
Will the SGE attack remain lukewarm in the league once again?
In general, the offensive is the biggest problem for the ninth-placed team at the moment. Kostic and Co. have failed to score in six of the past nine league games. In four of the last five games at home alone, they failed to score a goal of their own. It is therefore not surprising that in the review of the last six home games, only four points were scored. Therefore, betting on a home win between Frankfurt and Freiburg is associated with a high risk.
In our view, it is more interesting to focus on the implied approach of a low-scoring match. In seven of the last ten Bundesliga games with SGE participation, not even the 2.5 goal mark was cracked. In addition, only one goal was scored in the past seven first halves. In all of these seven matches, the bet on the under 1.5 after 45 minutes would have gone through.
For the match between Frankfurt and Freiburg, the odds on a maximum of one goal before the break also promise attractive value. Coach Glasner is not known to be a big fan of rotation, which is why we would not rule out the possibility that the majority of the professionals who gave their proverbial lives on the pitch on Thursday night will also be used on Sunday. In view of the upcoming second leg at the Camp Nou, however, an individual load control would be just as conceivable.
Predicted Frankfurt line-up:
Trapp – Tuta, Hinteregger, Ndicka – Jakic, Sow – Knauff, Kostic – Lindström, Kamada – Borré
Last matches played by Frankfurt:
Europa League Final Stage
04/07 2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 FC Barcelona
Bundesliga
04/02 2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 0 – 0 Greuther Fürth
Friendly club matches
03/24 2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 1. FC Nürnberg
Bundesliga
03/20 2022 – RB Leipzig 0 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
Europa League Final Stage
03/17 2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 Real Betis
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
C Freiburg is undoubtedly one of the most likeable clubs in Germany’s top football league. Even the appeal lodged against last weekend’s 1:4 defeat at home to FC Bayern could not change that. In the meantime, however, the appeal has been rejected by the sports court, so that the defeat against the record champions stands despite the short time in which twelve players were on the pitch.
Nevertheless, the Breisgauer still have a chance to return to the international stage. They are currently in fifth place, although a number of chasers are close on the heels of the Black Forest side. In order to underpin their own ambitions, it would of course be worth its weight in gold if a prediction of an away win were to pay off late on Sunday afternoon between Frankfurt and Freiburg.
Freiburg’s trump card is their stable defence
The fact that this will be an extremely difficult task is underlined by the poor record against the SGE in the most recent encounters. The Sport-Club has only managed to win one of the past nine meetings. In the entire second half of the season, “only” four of the eleven games played were victorious. Nevertheless, in the last seven Bundesliga games, only one defeat has been recorded, which is why we are not inclined to place a bet on a defeat for the fifth-placed team in the table.
More interesting, however, is the betting recommendation on a tendency to score few goals. Only FC Bayern and Leipzig have conceded fewer goals than Christian Streich’s team this season. The 3.5 goal mark was not broken in eleven of the 14 guest games in 2021/22.
Especially in the first 45 minutes, keeper Mark Flekken is very hard to beat. 15 goals have been conceded in the first half so far. This is also an absolute top value in a league comparison. In view of these facts, one cannot necessarily believe in an offensive spectacle in Frankfurt’s Stadtwald. With the exception of the injured U21 international Kevin Schade, all men are on board.
Predicted line-up of Freiburg:
Flekken – Gulde, Lienhart, N. Schlotterbeck – Schmid, M. Eggestein, Höfler, Günter – Sallai, Grifo – Höler
Last matches played by Freiburg:
Bundesliga
04/02 2022 – SC Freiburg 1 – 4 Bayern Munich
Friendly club matches
03/24 2022 – SC Freiburg 1 – 1 FC Heidenheim
Bundesliga
03/19 2022 -Greuther Fürth 0 – 0 SC Freiburg
03/12 2022 – SC Freiburg 3 – 2 VfL Wolfsburg
03/05 2022 – RB Leipzig 1 – 1 SC Freiburg
Frankfurt – Freiburg Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
In 1993, SC Freiburg were promoted to the Bundesliga for the first time. Since then, Eintracht has not celebrated more victories against any other team in the top flight than against the Breisgauer (15). In recent years, too, the pointer has mostly been pointing in the direction of the Hessians. Only one defeat in the nine most recent encounters underlines this impressively.
For the first time in over ten years, the Eagles could now celebrate three consecutive Bundesliga victories against Freiburg. In the first leg, the Euro-Eintracht gained the upper hand in the south of the country with a 2-0 win. Both goals were scored in the first half. The Streich eleven will be all the more vigilant in the first half on Sunday.
Frankfurt – Freiburg Tip
It would be disrespectful to the other parts of the team to break down the duel between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg solely on the basis of the two goalkeepers. Nevertheless, it is important to note that Mark Flekken and Kevin Trapp are the two goalkeepers who have the best defensive record in the Bundesliga. Flekken has a 77% save percentage, Trapp 73%.
Our recommendation for rather few goals in the penultimate match on matchday 29 is therefore emblematic of the strong keepers. The SGE will have to be a little more selective for the Europa League second leg in Barcelona; the visitors from Breisgau, meanwhile, have recently had problems scoring many goals. Instead, it is primarily the defence that is convincing for Streich’s team.
Because we expect the teams to neutralise each other, especially in the first 45 minutes, and because we want to avoid an early deficit in view of the big points in the race for the international starting right, we have decided to bet on the under 1.5 in the first half between Frankfurt and Freiburg.
