Will Lille pull off the miracle?
The French team went into the match against Chelsea FC as clear underdogs even before the first leg of the Champions League round of 16. Now, in the first meeting, there was a 0:2 defeat at Stanford Bridge, which makes the whole thing even more complicated. Virtually no one is counting on Lille in the second leg.
On the other hand, non-sporting matters are currently dominating the news at Chelsea. The frozen assets of Russian oligarch and owner Abramovich are currently overshadowing everything else. Coach Tuchel recently promised that the team would continue to participate in every competition. The trick for him now will be to keep these side noises away from the team as best he can and accordingly make it to the quarterfinals.
For the bookmakers, the roles are clearly distributed. Even though the French team has been very strong lately, almost every prediction for Lille vs. Chelsea goes in the direction of the Londoners. Given the result from the first leg, Lille’s progress would be tantamount to a minor miracle.
Lille – statistics & current form
After its glorious championship season, OSC Lille is playing a rather mixed season. Seventh place after 27 league games does not live up to the expectations of the Northern French. Nevertheless, they are still seven points behind second place in the table. They are currently five points behind the third place in the table, which is the main goal, as this would mean participation in the qualification for the Champions League. A difficult, but not impossible undertaking with eleven games remaining.
Convincing group stage
In European competition, on the other hand, Lille were able to do some good self-promotion and generated huge revenue, especially financially, by reaching the round of 16 of the Champions League. In the group stage, the French put an exclamation mark and finished the balanced group, consisting of Salzburg, Sevilla and Wolfsburg, with eleven points from six games as group leader.
The fact that they met the reigning Champions League winners directly afterwards was very unlucky. Nevertheless, Jocelyn Gourvennec’s team will be looking to do their best in front of their own fans in the second leg, make the impossible possible and overturn the 2-0 deficit.
It’s when it comes to scoring goals that Lille struggles. Despite the breakthrough of Canadian Jonathan David, who has scored 13 goals in 28 competitive games so far, the northern French do not have good statistics. Among the top six in France, OSC has the most harmless offense with 37 goals from 28 games. The second best scorer is oldie Burak Yilmaz with just four goals. The tips for the second leg between Lille and Chelsea therefore tend to go in the direction of a low-scoring game, and not without reason.
Predicted Lille lineup:
Jardim – Celik, Fonte, Botman, Djalo – Sanches, Xeka – Bamba, Ben Arfa – Yilmaz, David
Last matches played by Lille:
Ligue 1
03/11 2022 – Lille 0 – 0 Saint-Etienne
03/06 2022 – Lille 4 – 0 Clermont Foot
02/27 2022 – Lyon 0 – 1 Lille
Champions League Final
02/22 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 0 Lille
Ligue 1
02/18 2022 – Lille 0 – 0 Metz
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
Despite all the sidetracks off the green pitch, Thomas Tuchel’s team has so far managed to put their performance on the pitch unimpressed and take points. Even though many things are uncertain at the moment, ten of the last eleven competitive matches (league, cup and Club World Cup) have been won. Only at the end of February did the Reds lose 10:11 after an epic penalty shootout, in which substitute keeper Kepa missed at the end.
One reason for the stable performances is the German Kai Havertz. The ex-Leverkusen player benefited from Romelu Lukaku’s performance slump, which has now lasted a little longer, and scored six goals in the last eight competitive matches. Tuchel likes to use him as a striker.
Offense good, defense better
But especially at the other end of the field, Toni Rüdiger and Co. impress with stable defensive work. In this period of eleven games, the Tuchel protégés kept a clean sheet a full seven times. Lille also felt the effects of this stability in the first leg, when Chelsea won 2-0.
The Londoners are currently dominated by results-oriented play rather than spectacle. The odds for Lille vs. Chelsea therefore also point to a game with few goals. The Blues will most likely once again bring a stable team structure on the pitch and allow the opponent few goal-scoring opportunities.
Predicted lineup of Chelsea :
Mendy – James, Chalobah, Silva, Rudiger, Alonso – Kante, Jorginho, Mount – Havertz, Lukaku
Last matches played by Chelsea :
Premier League
03/13 2022 – Chelsea London 1 – 0 Newcastle United
03/10 2022 – Norwich 1 – 3 Chelsea London
03/05 2022 – Burnley 0 – 4 Chelsea London
FA Cup
03/02 2022 – Luton 2 – 3 Chelsea London
Carabao Cup
02/27 2022 – Chelsea London (10)0 – 0(11) Liverpool FC
Lille – Chelsea Direct comparison / H2H record
Only three direct meetings between Chelsea and Lille are in the statistics so far. For the Londoners, Lille is a welcome opponent. The Englishmen have won all three of their encounters against the French side.
Lille – Chelsea tip
For Lille, it’s all about in the second leg of the round of 16. To their advantage, the away goals rule no longer applies since this season. Accordingly, they can go to extra time with any result where they lead by two goals. Coach Gourvennec won’t be whipping his eleven forward without exception from the start because of this. If the score is still tied at halftime, a storming run by the French could follow in the second half.
Chelsea, on the other hand, will once again rely on their compactness. Knowing that they are always capable of scoring goals up front. It will therefore be exciting to see how offensively Tuchel will set up and adjust his team.
The Londoners were considered clear favorites beforehand and are even more so after the first leg victory. Now it will be a matter for them to find a good balance between offense and defense. If they manage to score one goal, Lille will need three for overtime.
The fact that there are teams against whom it is much easier to score goals is shown by the statistics of the games that Chelsea has recently been able to survive without conceding a goal. With Lille vs. Chelsea, many predictions go in the direction of a game with few goals. We also see the possibility and therefore bet four units on Under 2.5 goals. If you prefer the betting odds for a tip on the three-way market for Lille vs. Chelsea, you should play the victory of the Londoners due to the higher individual quality.
