Simeone or Rangnick: Who will take the risk sooner?
One of the most interesting and exciting constellations in the Champions League round of 16 is Atletico Madrid versus Manchester United. This assessment is based on several factors. On the one hand, we have two internationally renowned clubs that have fallen short of their own expectations at national level this season. On the other hand, however, we can expect the duel of the defensive fanatics on the coaching benches, Diego Simeone against Ralf Rangnick.
Because both coaches actually prefer to provide attacking highlights from a compact defence, a prediction of rather few goals tends to be considered more likely in the run-up to the first leg in the Spanish capital between Atletico Madrid and Manchester United. The bookmakers strongly believe that a maximum of two goals will be scored in the course of the match. Meanwhile, it is difficult to name a clear favourite to win the match.
Another interesting aspect relates to the aforementioned coaches of the clubs. While Simeone has regularly faced significant knockout matches on the international stage in recent years, this is actually Ralf Rangnick’s first Champions League knockout stage since 2010/11 – when he was still in the employ of FC Schalke 04.Despite this plus of experience at the European level, Atletico Madrid will be considered narrow outsiders against Manchester United according to the odds when it comes to which of the two teams will advance to the quarter-finals.
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
For Atletico Madrid, the top flight offers the only remaining chance to turn around what has been a dismal season. Because the “Rojiblancos” already lost out in the last 16 of the Copa del Rey and, as the reigning defending champions, were never able to match their performance in La Liga, coach Diego Simeone’s team has set its sights high for the Champions League.
However, it was not certain until the last matchday of the group phase that the “Colchoneros” would be allowed to play in the last 16. It was only thanks to a 3:1 win at FC Porto and the support of Liverpool against Milan that the Madrid team jumped to second place. They did so despite picking up just one point from three home games and even going without a goal on two occasions.
Atletico with a poor international record
Although they managed to advance to the knockout phase in 2020/21 and 2021/22, the international statistics are anything but good. Only four of the most recent 14 matches in the top flight were victorious. In the same period, there have also been six defeats, which can definitely be cited as an argument that betting on a home win in the first leg of the Atletico Madrid Manchester United betting game on Wednesday evening does not offer particularly high value.
Apart from that, there is also a question mark behind the capital’s current form. Since the beginning of December, they have lost four La Liga games alone. Especially the defence, which has been the showpiece of the red and white team for many years, is currently not working at all. In a review of the last twelve league games, they have only managed to keep a clean sheet twice. However, the fact that the defence seems much more stable at home (twelve goals conceded) than away from home (22) at least gives hope in this respect.
Will we finally see the old “Colchoneros” again?
Despite this, the bottom line is that we are far from placing a bet on many goals on Wednesday night. We are convinced that the Simeone eleven will show a different face defensively in such an important knockout game than in La Liga.
The main goal must be to keep a clean sheet at the back and to hope for individual quality offensively. Moreover, since the majority of goals scored and conceded in the group stage came after the break and three of the six matches were still 0-0 at the break, we can well imagine a goalless first half for the encounter at the Wanda Metropolitano. Carrasco, Felipe, Wass and Cunha are all unavailable. Whether Thomas Lemar will be fit in time will only be decided at short notice.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak; Vrsaljko, Gimenez, Savic, Reinildo; Llorente, Koke, Kondogbia, Correa; Felix, Suarez
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
LaLiga
02/19 2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 0 – 3 Atletico Madrid
02/16 2022 – Atletico Madrid 0 – 1 Levante
02/12 2022 – Atletico Madrid 4 – 3 Getafe
02/06 2022 – Barcelona 4 – 2 Atletico Madrid
01/22 2022 – Atletico Madrid 3 – 2 Valencia
Manchester United – Statistics & current form
Luck and sorrow are often close together at Manchester United this season. This was the case last weekend, for example, when the “Red Devils” were 2-0 up at Leeds United thanks to a good first half, but squandered this advantage within a few minutes after the break. In the end, however, the higher quality prevailed and Rangnick’s team left the pitch as winners (4:2). United currently sit in fourth place in the Premier League, although a number of promising rivals are still close behind.
Before the English record champions face a tough task in the league with Watford next Saturday, their eyes now turn to the Champions League, where they will be desperate to break through the sound barrier on Wednesday night. Manchester United could become only the fourth club to reach the 500-goal mark in Europe’s premier club competition. The English side currently stand at 499.
Spain not a good place for United
The fact that this is by no means a foregone conclusion and that the prediction of an away win in the Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United clash should be taken with a pinch of salt can be seen from the statistics, among others, that the “Red Devils” have only won one of their past seven European Cup matches in Spain. For 20 years (2002, victory against La Coruna), the 20-time national champions have been waiting for a full success on the Iberian peninsula.
Instead of betting on the visitors to win the first leg, the Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester United odds are more interesting on the fact that few goals will be scored. In 15 games under the management of Ralf Rangnick, only Aston Villa and Leeds United have scored twice against the backline around keeper De Gea. Five clean sheets and no less than eleven Under 2.5 matches round off the very tidy defensive record.
Will CR7 strike again against the “Rojiblancos”?
Because the bookmakers also expect a low-scoring game, it may be worth looking at the first half in isolation. It should be noted that only 29 goals were scored in 26 first-half passes by United in the Premier League. That compares with 49 goals after the break!
In 15 games under Rangnick, only three goals were conceded in the first 45 minutes. In six cases the score was still 0-0 at the end of the first half, so why not in perhaps the most important match of the German coach’s tenure to date, when he is back in the knockout phase of the top flight for the first time in over ten years? In any case, the “professor” has no personnel problems to contend with. With the exception of the suspended Greenwood, all the men are probably on board. That includes Cristiano Ronaldo, who has already scored 25 goals in 35 games against Atletico Madrid. Only against Sevilla FC has the Portuguese scored more times in his career than against the upcoming opponents.
Predicted Manchester United line-up:
De Gea; Dalot, Varane, Maguire, Shaw; McTominay, Pogba; Elanga, Fernandes, Sancho; Ronaldo
Last matches played by Manchester United:
Premier League
02/20 2022 – Leeds 2 – 4 Manchester United
02/15 2022 – Manchester United 2 – 0 Brighton
02/12 2022 – Manchester United 1 – 1 Southampton
02/08 2022 – Burnley 1 – 1 Manchester United
FA Cup
02/04 2022 – Manchester United (7)1 – 1(8) Middlesboro
Atletico Madrid – Manchester United Tip
Antoine Griezmann, Cristiano Ronaldo, Joao Felix, Paul Pogba and many more… There will be no shortage of international superstars at the Wanda Metropolitano on Wednesday night. Without a doubt, the encounter between the reigning Spanish champions and the English record holders is one of the highlights of this year’s Champions League round of 16.
If we look at the betting odds before the first leg between Atletico Madrid and Manchester United, the “Colchoneros” are slightly favoured in front of their home crowd. Considering their only four wins from their last 14 matches in the top flight and their poor record against English teams, against whom they have lost four in a row recently, we don’t think a bet on the home win is particularly attractive.
Instead, we focus on a rather low-scoring game. The under 2.5 is definitely worth considering given the importance of this match and the fact that neither team wants to go behind. Especially, of course, because both coaches traditionally place a lot of emphasis on a stable defence. Unfortunately, often in vain in the current match year.
The most promising value we find in the Atletico Madrid Manchester United tip is that the score is still 0-0 at half-time. United have only conceded three goals in the first 45 minutes under Rangnick; Atletico are also more defensive at home than away from home.
