Will Bayern show the right reaction?

When the glorious Champions League anthem sounds on Tuesday evening, it will give many people across Europe goosebumps. After a winter break of around three months, the ball is finally rolling again in the top division. From a German perspective, the focus can be placed solely on FC Bayern, as the other Bundesliga teams have already been eliminated in the preliminary round.

Nevertheless, there is a second Bundesliga team in the round of the last 16 and it will play against the Munich team in a “neighbourly duel”. We are of course talking about the red bulls from Wals-Siezenheim.

The fact that the Austrian champions will only be the underdogs against the German record champions is already underlined by the odds before the first leg between RB Salzburg and Bayern. If the underdog does indeed unexpectedly reach the quarter-finals, more than ten times the stakes could be dusted off.

However, such a scenario is not particularly likely. The differences are too great in terms of international experience or the individual quality available. Nevertheless, RB coach Matthias Jaissle will have taken note at the weekend of how the sheer overpowering title holders of 2020 can be cracked. Between RB Salzburg and Bayern, of course, a prediction on the home side still carries a very big risk.

RB Salzburg – Statistics & current form

Red Bull Salzburg finally made it at the fourth attempt and became the first Austrian team ever to reach the last 16 in the Champions League. Thanks to a 1-0 win over Sevilla on the last day of the preliminary round, the subscription champions still climbed to second place in the group and have already made history. However, coach Matthias Jaissle’s team’s journey should not be over yet at best, although the knockout stage debutants are considered the most glaring underdogs among the remaining 16 teams.

Nevertheless, caution should be exercised from FC Bayern’s point of view. After all, RB laid the foundations for their progress at home, where they won all three games in the group stage, including against VfL Wolfsburg. In total, the Red and Whites picked up a solid ten points, but only conceded one goal in six matches.

Finds Salzburg the right balance?

The fact that the defence does not always meet the highest standards is also evident in the domestic Bundesliga. In only three of the last ten Bundesliga games did the undisputed leaders keep a clean sheet. Unlike at national level, it will be difficult against the FCB to score more goals than they score.

To make matters worse, only three of the last nine knockout round newcomers have won their first round of 16 match. Their record against German clubs is also anything but positive, with just one win from six games and 18 goals conceded. From a purely statistical point of view, there is not much to suggest that the Jaissle team will manage a surprise. Consequently, the odds on the double chance 1X between RB Salzburg and Bayern are not a serious option for us.

However, the Tyroleans can at least be expected to score a goal of their own. On the one hand, because they have only failed to score in one of 31 completed games this season. On the other hand, the defensive weaknesses of Munich could also play into the hands of the Austrian double winners. Above all, the fast and dynamic attacking duo Adeyemi/Okafor must first be defended away. The bet on “Both score” is therefore one of our top three tips for the reasons mentioned above. In terms of personnel, Coach Jaissle can draw on a wide range of options. However, four players could be suspended for the second leg if they receive another yellow card.

Predicted line-up of RB Salzburg:
Köhn – Kristensen, Solet, Wöber, Ulmer – Capaldo, Camara, Seiwald – Aaronson – Adeyemi, Okafor

Last matches played by RB Salzburg:

Bundesliga
02/11 2022 – Rapid Wien 1 – 2 Salzburg

Cup
02/06 2022 – Salzburg 3 – 1 LASK

Friendly club matches
01/29 2022 – Salzburg 3 – 0 SV Lafnitz

01/22 2022 – Salzburg 1 – 2 Admira Mödling

01/18 2022 – Ried 1 – 3 Salzburg

Bayern – Statistics & current form

What kind of performance did FC Bayern put on in Bochum on Saturday afternoon? The record champions went down 1:4 to the promoted team and conceded all four goals in the first 45 minutes. It was reminiscent of the fiasco in the DFB Pokal against Gladbach, when they also revealed unexpected defensive weaknesses and virtually invited the opponent to score.

In purely tabular terms, this sensational defeat in the Ruhrpott was not a leg-breaker, but doubts were once again raised that the FCB defence does not have the international world-class format that it definitely needs to think about Champions League triumph. Moreover, because regular goalkeeper Manuel Neuer will also be unavailable on Wednesday evening and will once again be replaced by Sven Ulreich, some betting friends are jumping on the bandwagon and can even imagine an elimination of the Munich side in the round of 16 against Salzburg.

Bayern’s last CL away defeat dates back to 2017

However, this train of thought must be put to rest immediately. Instead, there is much to suggest that the players from Säbener Straße will show a reaction in the first leg of the last 16 and lay the foundations for progress. The FCB is now unbeaten in 21 consecutive Champions League matches in opposing stadiums (17 wins, four draws) and will now meet an Austrian representative for the fourth time in an international knockout phase. In the three previous attempts, they always managed to advance to the next round.

In addition, with regard to the RB Salzburg vs Bayern prediction for the first leg, it should not be neglected that coach Julian Nagelsmann’s team dominated the group stage by every trick in the book. The record champions were one of only three clubs to score the maximum 18 points. Lewandowski and Co. scored a whopping 22 goals of their own in the six match days. Five handicap victories with at least a three-goal lead round off the impressive tally.

Although a different calibre now awaits with the Austrian industry leaders, we believe that another triumph with two or more goals difference is absolutely within the realms of possibility. In addition to the absence of Manuel Neuer, Musiala, Goretzka and Davies will also be absent. You can still rely on the aforementioned Lewandowski, of course, who is playing his 50th CL away game and has scored 37 goals in 49 matches away from home so far.

Predicted Bayern line-up:
Ulreich – Pavard, Süle, Hernandez – Kimmich, Tolisso – Gnabry, T. Müller, L. Sané, Coman – Lewandowski

Last matches played by Bayern:

1st Bundesliga
02/12 2022 – Vfl Bochum 4 – 2 Bayern Munich

02/05 2022 – Bayern Munich 3 – 2 RB Leipzig

01/23 2022 – Hertha Berlin 1 – 4 Bayern Munich

01/15 2022 – 1. FC Köln 0 – 4 Bayern München

01/07 2022 – Bayern Munich 1 – 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach

RB Salzburg – Bayern Tipp

The FC Bayern squad will have to travel less than 150 kilometres this week to take on Salzburg in the last 16 of the top flight. After the scandalous draw in December of last year, Atletico Madrid were actually drawn as the opponents of the German record champions, so now it comes to the duel with the red bulls, who were the first team from Austria to make it into the knockout round of the Champions League.

Another interesting side note is provided by the two coaching personnel Julian Nagelsmann and Matthias Jaissle. In fact, never before have two such young coaches (33 and 34 years old) faced each other in a direct duel in Europe’s most important club competition. In terms of experience, however, the Bayern coach clearly has the edge. Just like his team, by the way, which seems to be stronger in all decisive aspects.

Because statistically everything points in the direction of the Munich team, FCB has not lost an away game in the Champions League since 2017 and has a strong record against clubs from the neighbouring country, it is absolutely understandable that far lower betting odds are offered on an away win between RB Salzburg and Bayern.

In our eyes, it is even conceivable that Lewandowski and Co will really come out on top on Wednesday evening and at the same time show a defiant reaction to the embarrassing defeat against Bochum at the weekend. Although it cannot be ruled out that the underdogs from Wals-Siezenheim will also score at least one goal, in our opinion the bet on a handicap win (-1) for the visitors promises the most promising value between Red Bull Salzburg and Bayern