Will Dortmund strike back in the capital?
Borussia Dortmund had to lick their wounds this week. After last Sunday’s embarrassing performance in the top match against Bayer Leverkusen and the deserved 1:5 defeat, coach Marco Rose took his team to task. In order not to slip into a tangible crisis, they need a good result at the “Alte Försterei”.
However, the fact that in all five previous Bundesliga encounters between these teams, the home team has always left the pitch as the winner underlines the fact that this undertaking will be anything but easy. The Eisernen were also able to win both of their home games against BVB. It is therefore all the more surprising that such low odds on an away win are being offered for Sunday’s match between Union Berlin and Dortmund. Is the black and yellow team still overrated?
Making matters worse once again is the fact that Borussia will have to do without their goal scorer Erling Haaland. On Friday, Coach Rose confirmed the absence of the offensive life insurance. However, this does not change the basic Union Berlin vs. Dortmund prediction that we nevertheless expect a goal or two. It is only in terms of the probability of victory that the subjective percentage points for the second-placed team in the table may have dropped slightly.
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
Not only Borussia Dortmund, but also Union Berlin had to cope with a setback in the previous week. After five unbeaten Bundesliga games in a row, the Eisernen lost their away match at FC Augsburg with 0:2 and were thus unable to disprove the critics who suspected a small slump after Max Kruse’s transfer to Wolfsburg. Especially offensively, the capitals fell short of their own expectations.
However, it would be completely presumptuous to immediately turn this into a worrying trend. Urs Fischer’s team has already underlined several times this season that they have long since become a real constant in the top half of the table in their third consecutive year in the Bundesliga. At the moment, Union are even in fourth place and can secretly dream of the Champions League.
Union still a power at home
Apart from that, the Eisernen are very much to be trusted in front of their home crowd. Only one of the last 26 home games was lost in the German top flight (2:5 against Bayern in October 2021). Ten of a possible twelve points have come from the past four matches at the Alte Försterei. The two most recent direct encounters against BVB in their own stadium were also victorious, as already indicated. Consequently, betting on a home win between Union Berlin and Dortmund, whether as a DNB bet or on the three-way market, offers attractive value.
The only downer, however, is the departure of Max Kruse, whose presence in the opposition penalty area alone caused a lot of disorder for the respective opponent. Even if the Fischer eleven would like to compensate for his departure collectively, it remains to be said that without Kruse, the Köpenickers have not been able to win any of their five matches this season. Instead of 1.9 points and an average of 1.5 goals, the Red and Whites have 0.6 points and only one goal per match without the veteran. So are the doubters mentioned at the beginning right?
Personnel-wise, there was some bad news to deal with during the week. Khedira has to miss out due to a yellow suspension. In addition, four players tested positive, including Dominique Heintz and Niko Gießelmann, who were expected to start. The numerous absences in the defensive area are therefore also a reason to focus on the odds on excess goals between Union Berlin and Dortmund.
Predicted line-up of Union Berlin:
Luthe – Baumgartl, Knoche, Jaeckel – Trimmel, Prömel, Oczipka – Becker, Haraguchi – Awoniyi, Michel
Last matches played by Union Berlin:
1st Bundesliga
02/05 2022 – Augsburg 2 – 0 Union Berlin
Friendly club matches
01/26 2022 – Union Berlin 0 – 0 Widzew Lodz
1st Bundesliga
01/22 2022 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 – 2 Union Berlin
DFB Cup
01/19 2022 – Hertha Berlin 2 – 3 Union Berlin
1st Bundesliga
01/15 2022 – Union Berlin 2 – 1 Hoffenheim
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Cup exit against St. Pauli, Champions League knockout in what should have been a feasible group and finally the regular slip-ups in the Bundesliga. Borussia Dortmund’s season so far has had more downs than ups. Although the Black and Yellows are well on their way to achieving the minimum goal, i.e. qualifying for the 2022/23 Champions League, the loyal supporters in the pot are hoping year after year to get closer to the great FC Bayern. In vain.
At the latest after the heavy 1:5 defeat against Leverkusen last Sunday, Borussia’s chances of winning the championship have probably run out of steam. Coach Marco Rose’s team is nine points behind, and has also been facing strong headwinds recently and is no longer untouchable among many fans. BVB has disappointed all along the line too often in recent weeks and months. The system seems to be too dependent on top striker Erling Haaland.
No Haaland, no Party?
The biggest weakness, however, is and remains the defence. In the last five Bundesliga games alone, keeper Gregor Kobel had to make 13 (!) saves. The current second-placed team has only managed to score twice this season, not even away from home. Prior to this matchday, no other team in the top half of the league had conceded more goals than the multiple German champions.
This incredible defensive vulnerability, which is at least somewhat offset by the extremely potent offence (54 goals in 21 games), is of course a clear indication that we will also see one or two goals in the capital on Sunday afternoon. Only in three of Dortmund’s 21 league matches in 2021/22 would a bet on the under 2.5 have gone through. In the five most recent BVB matches, almost 30 goals were scored, i.e. an average of almost six goals. It should therefore only be a matter of time before the 2.5 goal mark is broken at the weekend.
In addition to the aforementioned absence of Erling Haaland, Marco Rose, who has already lost four away games with Borussia this season, will have to do without Thomas Meunier and Marius Wolf. On the other hand, the return of Gio Reyna, who brought a breath of fresh air after his substitution against Leverkusen and is now needed immediately from the start, is hopeful.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Kobel – Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro – Dahoud – Reyna, Bellingham – Reus, Brandt – Malen
Last matches played by Dortmund:
1st Bundesliga
02/06 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 5 Bayer Leverkusen
01/22 2022 – Hoffenheim 2 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
DFB Cup
01/18 2022 – St. Pauli 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
1st Bundesliga
01/14 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 5 – 1 SC Freiburg
01/08 2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 2 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
Union Berlin – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
This is the sixth time the two clubs have faced each other in the Bundesliga. In the first five duels, the home team always had the upper hand. The first leg this season went 4-2 to the Westphalians, who accordingly also lead the direct comparison with three wins to two. Also interesting: Four of the five meetings have resulted in at least three goals.
Union Berlin – Dortmund Tip
The top match of the 22nd matchday in the Bundesliga will be played on Sunday afternoon by the fourth-placed team in the table against the second-placed team. Union Berlin will meet Dortmund. According to the betting odds, BVB are the clear favourites, which we think is quite a bold assessment.
On the one hand, the Ironmen have lost only one of their last 26 home games in the league, but on the other hand, the Black and Yellows look extremely battered after their recent performances. To make matters worse, Erling Haaland will continue to be out. Furthermore, it should not be neglected that in this duel in the highest German division, the guest has never been able to win. So if you want to bet on the outcome of the match, the more exciting value is to be found with Union.
However, we think it is even more interesting to bet on the over 2.5 between Union Berlin and Dortmund. In 18 of 21 BVB games this season, the corresponding over mark has been broken. At the same time, however, Borussia have conceded 13 goals in their last five matches, so there is once again a lot to suggest that there will be some goals on show.
Spectacle is also on the cards for the night from Sunday to Monday. That’s when the Super Bowl will take place in Los Angeles.
